思考樂教育: 重拾成長節奏

（以下内容从天风国际证券《思考樂教育: 重拾成長節奏》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Scholar Education Group (1769 HK) 重拾成长节奏 24H1E results: growth momentum uptick BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2024年中期业绩公告 24H1公司收入3.99亿元人民币，同增58.8%；归母净利0.83亿元，同增92.5%，其中包含共计1089万元购股权福利开支（23H1爲357.3万元），剔除後归母净利0.94亿元，同增101.1%；合约负债2.49亿元，同增93%；毛利率44.4%，同增3.0pct；调後归母净利率23.4%，同增4.9pct。 归母净利增加主要系①辅导课时总数增加；②公司努力改善经营效率。 分业务看，24H1非学业素质课程及其他业务收入3.67亿元，同增57.8%；辅导课程业务收入0.33亿元，同增70.6%。 24H1E revenue up 59% and net profit up 93%; higher tutoring hours and efficiency Key metrics: Scholar Education released unaudited 24H1E financial results recently: ·Revenue arrived at RMB399m, up 58.8% yoy; ·Net profit rose 92.5% yoy to RMB83m (including RMB10.89m share option benefit expenses (vs RMB3.57m in 23H1); excluding these expenses, net profit would have been RMB94m, up 101.1% yoy. ·Contract liabilities amounted to RMB249m, up 93% yoy; ·Gross margin was 44.4%, up 3.0ppt yoy; and adjusted net margin was 23.4%, up 4.9ppt yoy. Profit drivers: the company attributes net profit growth to: ·Higher tuition hours overall; ·Better operational efficiency. Revenue streams: ·Nonacademic and other such courses generated RMB367m, up 57.8% yoy; ·Tuition classes generated RMB33m, up 70.6% yoy. 经营效率改善，销售成本及各项费用增幅低於收益增幅 公司24H1销售成本2.22亿元，同增50.7%，系教师薪酬上涨及学习中心扩张导致的使用权资产摊销增加。 费用方面，24H1销售费用0.07亿元，同增26.6%；行政费用0.56亿元，同增11.5%；研发费用0.11亿元，同增21.3%；各项费用增幅均低於收益增幅。 Operations: better efficiencies, higher cost of sales and manageable expenses Cost of sales came to RMB222m in 24H1E, up 50.7% yoy, as amortization of right-of-use assets increased in relation to higher teacher salaries and expansion of Scholar’s learning center network. Expenses mounted in the first half of 2024E but the increase was smaller than the revenue increase. We look at the breakdown: ·Sales expenses came to RMB7m, up 26.6% yoy; ·Administrative expenses came to RMB56m, up 11.5% yoy; ·R&D expenses were RMB11m, up 21.3% yoy. 业务转型持续推进，素养课程广受认可 公司积极推行业务转型，自2021年秋公司推出多种非学科的素养课程，取得了学生及家长的高度认可，24H1营收成绩喜人。 24H1公司非学科素养课程入读学生人次达16.97万人次，同增57.3%；相关课时数达420.29万课时，同增57.1%。 Business pivot shown to be viable; nonacademic businesses gain market traction Nonacademic courses: Scholar rolled out a series of personal development courses from fall 2021 in response to policy directives. Embraced by both students and parents, the shift in the curriculum mix led to robust revenue in 24H1E: ·Enrollments: 169,700 students enrolled in personal development courses in 24H1E, 57.3% more yoy; ·Tuition hours: the courses clocked 4.2m hours of tuition time, up 57.1% yoy. 多举措助力国际化培养，妙维国际素养课程成效显著 公司自2023年7月推出教育旅遊业务及国际课程，这些举措已经并且将持续拓宽公司收益基础，爲长远发展做出贡献。 24H1思考乐妙维国际积极采取各项举措：成立妙维国际绿景NEO校区，致力於培养具有国际视野、创新精神和实践能力的优秀人才；与新西兰长湾中学签署了战略合作协议，共同搭建相互学习平台；积极开展海外研学活动，目的地涵盖美国、英国、加拿大、新加坡、日本、新西兰等多个国家。 Miaowei International: Scholar entered new business markets in educational tourism and international studies in July 2023, which broadened its revenue markets and the company expects they will contribute to long-term growth. Miaowei, its international brand, made headway with several initiatives in 24H1, including: ·New campus: the company established Miaowei International Campus at Greenview NEO Building to nurture globally fluent talents who have vision, an innovative spirit and practicable drive. ·NZ tie-up: a strategic cooperation agreement with Long Bay College in New Zealand to jointly build a mutual learning platform; ·Global research initiatives: these cover the US, UK, Canada, Singapore, Japan, New Zealand and other countries. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持买入评级 由於公司24H1净利率表现较好，我们适当上调盈利预测；我们预计2024-26年全年收入分别爲9.8亿人民币、15.6亿人民币、22.0亿人民币；调後净利分别爲2.1亿人民币、2.8亿人民币、3.4亿人民币（原值分别爲2.0亿人民币、2.7亿人民币、3.3亿人民币）；EPS分别爲0.38元人民币/股、0.51元人民币/股、0.61元人民币/股（原值分别爲0.36元人民币/股、0.49元人民币/股、0.60元人民币/股）；对应PE分别爲14、10、9x。 Valuation and risks We raise our forecast in light of Scholar’s healthy net margin in 24H1E. We now project revenue will arrive at RMB980m/1.56bn/2.20bn in 2024/25/26E, with adjusted net profit at RMB210m/280m/340m (previously RMB200m/270m/330m). EPS moves to RMB0.38/ 0.51/0.61 (previously RMB0.36/0.49/0.60) and PE to 14x/10x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：政策风险；管理风险；运营成本上升风险；行业竞争风险加剧；外汇风险等。 Risks include: policy effects; management risks; rising operating costs; intensifying competition; and FX risks. 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