新秀麗: 下半年市場或仍有一定不確定性

（以下内容从天风国际证券《新秀麗: 下半年市場或仍有一定不確定性》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Samsonite International (1910 HK) 下半年市场或仍有一定不确定性 After encouraging 24H1E results, we would watch market uncertainties into 24H2E BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2024年度中期业绩公告 24H1收入17.69亿美元，同增2.8%；归母净利1.64亿美元，同增16.1%；24H1收入增长主要系购物和旅遊需求以及批发客户重建库存的需要。 24Q2收入9.09亿美元，同增1.5%；归母净利0.81亿美元，同增13.6%；归母净利的增长主要由财务费用净额减少所致。 分品牌，24H1新秀丽品牌收入9.04亿美元，同增5.8%，占比51.1%； Tumi收入4.14亿美元，同增0.3%，占比23.4%； American Tourister收入3.07亿美元，同减0.9%，占比17.4%；其他收入1.43亿美元，同减0.5%，占比8.1%；American Tourister收入下降的原因爲印度竞争对手激烈的促销活动以及北美主要客户销售的减少。 分地区，24H1亚洲地区收入6.80亿美元，同增2.0%，其中中国市场收入1.5亿美元，同增7.6%，其中24Q2同减3.5%，或显现一定消费压力；北美洲收入6.08亿美元，同减0.5%；欧洲收入3.72亿美元，同增4.6%；拉丁美洲收入1.08亿美元，同增20.3%。 24H1E results: revenue growth driven by shopping, travel, wholesale restocking Key metrics: Samsonite International recently announced unaudited 24H1E results: ·H1E revenue amounted to USD1.77bn, up 2.8% yoy, while net profit leapt 16.1% yoy to USD164m. Revenue growth drivers included shopping and travel demand and wholesale customers’ inventory replenishments. ·Q2E contributed USD909m revenue, up 1.5% yoy, and USD81m net profit, up 13.6% yoy, on lower net financial expenses. Brands by revenue size: ·Samsonite: the main brand generated USD904m in 24H1E, up 5.8% yoy; accounting for 51.1% of total revenue. ·Tumi: revenue came to USD414m, up 0.3% yoy; accounting for 23.4% of the total. ·American Tourister: revenue fell 0.9% yoy to USD307m (17.4% of the total), which the company attributes to aggressive promotions by competitors in India as well as lower sales from key North American customers. ·Other brands amounted to USD143m, down 0.5% yoy; accounting for 8.1%. Markets by revenue size: ·Asia posted revenue of USD680m in 24H1E, up 2.0% yoy, with the Chinese market contributing USD150m, up 7.6% yoy, even with a 3.5% yoy dip in Q2E on some consumption pressure. ·North America generated USD608m revenue, down 0.5% yoy, ·Europe drew revenue of USD372m, up 4.6% yoy. ·Latin America contributed revenue of USD108m, up 20.3% yoy. 毛利率增长系所有地区毛利率均按年改善，DTC占比至38.1%，同增0.4pct，品牌组合变化及持续对促销折扣的严格控制。 销售费率29.4%，同增1.9pct；销售费用增长主要系由新自营零售店的开设所带来的租赁使用权资产折旧及摊销；支持销售增长的其他开支增加；2023年上半年多家自营零售店在人手缩减及租金临时宽减的情况下营运而造成的低基数。 管理费率6.7%，同减0.5pct，反映公司继续严格控制业务的固定成本结构；财务费率3.9%，同减0.6pct，财务费用减少部分原因系公司持续偿还优先信贷融通下的借款，贷款及借款的利息开支减少。 24H1经调整EBITDA利润率爲18.9%，同增0.1pct，改善主要系毛利率增长至60.2%所推动；公司的营销投资收入占比同增0.2pct。 Profitability: gross and adjusted EBITDA margin expansions set H1 records Margin analysis: ·Gross margin was 60.2% in 24H1E, up 1.4ppt yoy, with yoy rises across all regions. The company attributes the healthy gross margin to a 0.4ppt yoy bigger proportion of direct-to-consumer net sales at 38.1%, as well as brand mix changes and tight control of promotional discounts. ·Net margin came to 9.29% in H1E, up 0.7ppt yoy. ·Adjusted EBITDA margin came to 18.9%, up 0.1ppt yoy, which the company attributes to the gross margin expansion despite 0.2ppt yoy heavier marketing investment. Expense profile: ·Sales expense ratio rose 1.9ppt yoy to 29.4% in H1E. The increase in sales expenses was due to: -Depreciation and amortization of leasehold right-of-use assets related to openings of new direct-business retail stores; -Other expense increases to support sales growth; -The low 23H1 comparative base related to a number of direct-business retail stores amid staff cuts and temporary rental relief. ·Management fee ratio was 6.7%, down 0.5ppt yoy, which reflected the company’s strict control of the fixed-cost business structure. ·Financial ratio was 3.9%, down 0.6ppt yoy, partly due to loan repayments on senior credit facilities and lower loan interest expenses. 公司将继续专注於通过利润率更高的品牌、渠道和地区，推动收入增长，继续投资於升级及扩充实体零售及电子商贸业务。公司将继续严格控制促销折扣及管理开支，尤其是固定SG&A开支，以维持公司稳健的利润率。 全球旅遊业及观光业的趋势仍然乐观，可对公司产品需求有所支持。 国际旅客人次继续提升并预计於2024年恢复到疫情前水平，而北半球夏季高峯期对航空旅行的需求仍然殷切。 由於消费者继续优先考虑旅遊而非其他可自由支配的支出，尽管目前存在不利因素，但公司依然看好前景。 公司将2024年广告支出定爲收入的7.0%。公司凭藉雄厚流动资金，具备充裕能力继续投资业务以促进未来增长。 随着消费者更有选择性及更谨慎地消费，公司对产品创新、质量、功能性、可靠性及可持续性的不懈追求，将增强公司品牌对消费者的吸引力，进而使公司在竞争中脱颖而出。 2024E outlook: keep investing to boost both physical retail and online channels Company: Samsonite International plans to focus on growing revenue through higher-margin brands, channels and markets. Meanwhile, it would keep investing to upgrade and expand both the brick-and-mortar retail and ecommerce businesses. It believes that curbing promotional discounts and management expenses, especially fixed SG&A, will ensure healthy profit margins. Industry: the company expects global travel and tourism market trends will remain positive, which would support product demand. It believes international traveler numbers will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024E and expects strong air travel demand in the peak summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. As consumers prioritize travel over other discretionary spending, the company sees bullish prospects despite the current headwinds. Sufficient budget: Samsonite set its 2024E advertising budget at 7.0% of revenue. The sufficient funds would enable the company to keep investing for future growth. As consumers become increasingly selective and cautious in spending, we believe the company’s unmitigated pursuit of product innovations, quality, functionality, reliability and sustainability will maintain its brand appeal and differentiation over the competition. 开展2亿美元股票回购计划 监於公司强劲的表现及财务状况，董事会在2024年恢复对公司股东的年度现金分派，於2024年7月派付1.5亿美元。 2024年6月董事会批准一项最高达2.0亿美元的股份回购计划，公司於2024年上半年业绩公告禁售期结束後啓动股份回购。 Dividends and share buybacks: ·USD150m to shareholders: in light of Samsonite International’s healthy results and financial position, the board of directors approved on 6 June to restart shareholder payouts to the tune of USD150m for 2024. ·USD200m share buybacks: the board also approved in June 2024 a share repurchase program of up to USD200m, which the company plans to kick off once the blackout period ends after the 24H1 results announcement. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 公司作爲全球箱包行业龙头企业，凭藉多元化品牌组合吸引消费者，持续开发新物料、新设计；Tumi 瞄准高端箱包市场发力，具有充分增长空间；基於当前全球及亚洲消费环境及预期变化，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司24-26年收入分别爲41.14亿美元、45.42亿美元、50.67亿美元；归母净利分别爲3.9亿美元、4.3亿美元、4.9亿美元（原值分别爲4.8亿美元、5.3亿美元、5.96亿美元）；EPS分别爲0.27美元/股、0.30美元/股、0.34美元/股（原值分别爲0.33美元/股、0.36美元/股、0.41美元/股）；对应PE分别爲9/8/7X。 Valuation and risks We reckon Samsonite’s global luggage leadership will continue to draw consumers, as it thrives on a diverse brand portfolio and continues to develop new materials and designs. We believe Tumi, which targets the high-end luggage market, has good growth prospects. We have lowered our forecast in view of current global and Asian consumer market conditions and changing expectations. We now project revenue of USD4.11bn/4.54bn/5.07bn in 2024/25/26E; with net profit at USD390m/ 430m/490m (previously USD480m/530m/596m); our EPS moves to USD0.27/0.30/0.34 (previously USD0.33/ 0.36/0.41); with PE at 9x/8x/7x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：市场经济恶化风险；成本增长风险；供应商违约风险；汇率波动风险 ；产品分渠道风险等 Risks include: deteriorating market economy; cost increases; supplier defaults; FX fluctuations; and product sub-channel risks. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）