裕元集團: 7月製造營收增長提速,股息具備吸引力

（以下内容从天风国际证券《裕元集團: 7月製造營收增長提速,股息具備吸引力》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (0551 HK) 7月制造营收增长提速，股息具备吸引力 24H1E results: manufacturing revenue growth trend picked up in July; attractive dividend payout BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2024年中期业绩公告 24H1公司收入40.2亿美元，同减3.4%；归母净利1.8亿美元，同增120.6%；归母经常性净利1.8亿美元，同增123.8%；毛利率24.3%，同增0.8pct；归母净利率4.6%，同增2.6pct。中期股息0.8亿美元，平均0.4港元/股，配息率达45%。 24H1员工总人数27.7万，同增0.1%；其中制造业25.6万，同增1.3%；零售业2.1万，同减12.7%。24H1鞋履出货量1.207亿双，同增9.9%，印尼占比53%，越南占比31%，中国大陆占比12%。 同时，公司公告7月数据，24年1-7月公司收入47亿美金，同减1.5%，其中制造业务7月营收同增22%，增速环比显著提升；或系基数效应及订单增长所致；24年1-7月制造业营收同增5%； 零售业务7月营收同减11%，24年1-7月营收同减9%。 24H1E results: revenue down 3% and net profit up 121%; HKD0.40 DPS Key metrics: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) announced unaudited 24H1E results recently: ·Revenue came to USD4.02bn, down 3.4% yoy; ·Net profit was USD180m, up 120.6% yoy, and recurring net profit was USD180m, up 123.8% yoy; ·Gross margin was 24.3%, up 0.8ppt, and net margin was 4.6%, up 2.6ppt; ·DPS: the company announced an interim dividend of USD80m, averaging HKD0.40 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%. Staff count was 277,000, 0.1% higher yoy; with the breakdown as follows: ·Manufacturing employees: 256,000, up 1.3% yoy; ·Retail sales staff: 21,000, down 12.7% yoy. Footwear shipments expanded 9.9% yoy to a total of 120.7m pairs from YY’s production facilities around the world: ·Indonesia accounted for 53%; ·Vietnam produced 31%; ·Mainland of China generated 12%. 24M7E financials: the company also released data for July 2024, which led to total revenue of USD4.7bn for the first 7 months of 2024, down 1.5% yoy. A breakdown shows: ·Manufacturing revenue rose 22% yoy in July, a substantial mom upswing likely due to the softer comparative base, on top of order growth; meanwhile, 24M7 revenue grew 5% yoy. ·Retail revenue fell 11% yoy in July; while 24M7 revenue declined 9% yoy. 制造业产能利用率90%，鞋履平均售价降低 24H1制造业收入26.3亿美元，同增2.4%；归母净利1.6亿美元，同增177.2%；毛利率19.1%，同增1.7pct；归母净利率5.9%，同增3.7pct；主要系①订单随产业良好复甦趋常态化；②由於高基期效应及产品组合变化，平均售价下降，部分抵消出货量增幅。 24H1产能利用率90%，同增15pct，其中24Q2产能利用率92%，同增14pct。24H1人工及制造费用同增2.1%，占总成本45.8%；原材料成本同比减少2.0%，占总成本35.1%。 24H1鞋履平均售价20.0美元/双，同减7.8%。分季看24Q1 ASP19.6美元/双，毛利率20.3%，OPM8.4%；24Q2 ASP20.38美元/双，毛利率18.0%，OPM6.1%。 分地区，24H1制造业中国大陆收入同增21.5%，占18.8%，同增3.0pct；美国同减0.9%，占26.6%，同减0.9pct；欧洲同减2.0%，占25.9%，同减1.1pct；其他地区同减0.9%，占28.7%，同减1.0pct。 分产品，24H1运动鞋/户外鞋收入20.7亿美元，同增0.5%；休闲鞋&运动凉鞋收入3.4亿美元，同增6.6%；鞋底、配件及其他收入2.2亿美元，同增14.6%。 Manufacturing business: 90% capacity utilization vs footwear ASP decline ·Revenue from the manufacturing business was USD2.63bn in H1E, up 2.4% yoy. ·Net profit came to USD160m, up 177.2% yoy. ·Margins: gross margin was 19.1% in H1E, up 1.7ppt yoy; and net margin was 5.9%, up 3.7ppt yoy. Key factors: ·Orders normalized as the industry recovery gained traction; ·Shipments expanded due to the cyclical trend and changes in the product mix, although lower average selling prices (ASP) partially offset the increase. Capacity utilization reached 90% in 24H1, up 15ppt yoy, as Q2 utilization increased 14ppt to 92%. Expenses: manufacturing and labor expenses rose 2.1% yoy in H1 and accounted for 45.8% of total cost; while raw material costs fell 2.0% yoy at 35.1% of total cost. Footwear: ASP was USD20.0/pair in 24H1, down 7.8% yoy; with a breakdown showing: ·Q1 ASP at USD19.6/pair; with 20.3% gross margin and 8.4% operating margin; ·Q2 ASP at USD20.38/pair; with 18.0% gross margin and 6.1% OPM. Manufacturing revenue by market: ·Mainland of China: up 21.5% yoy in H1E; and contributing 18.8% of manufacturing revenue, 3.0ppt higher yoy; ·US: down 0.9%; 26.6% of the total, 0.9ppt lower; ·Europe: down 2.0%; 25.9% of the total, 1.1ppt lower; ·Other regions: down 0.9%; 28.7% of the total, 1.0ppt lower. Manufacturing revenue by product category: ·Sports and outdoor footwear: USD2.07bn in H1E, up 0.5% yoy; ·Casual footwear and sports sandals: USD340m, up 6.6% yoy; ·Insoles, accessories and others: USD220m, up 14.6% yoy. 全渠道零售表现稳健，精致化零售策略专注提升单店效益 24H1零售收入99.8亿人民币（约13.8亿美元），按人民币计同减8.9%；归母净利3.4亿人民币，同增10.2%；毛利率34.2%，同增0.7pct；归母净利率3.4%，同增0.6pct。 宝胜全渠道表现稳健，但中国大陆零售环境愈趋多变，店铺客流量疲弱。24H1宝胜实体店铺收入同减13%，总占74.0%，其中，直营店及泛微店营收占75%，同减1.0pct，加盟店占25%，同增1.0pct；24H1全渠道收入同增10%，总占26.0%，其中B2B占14%，同增1.0pct，B2C占86%，同减1.0pct。 截至24年6月30日，宝胜於大中华区设有3478间直营店铺，同减6.6%，与23年年底相比，净关店45间，其中优质大店730间，占比21.0%，同增1.3pct。一盘棋规划新店布局、选择性调整或改造店铺作爲宝胜精致化零售策略的核心，有助於宝胜专注提升单店效益。 Retail: omnichannel stability; premiumization strategy lifts per-store efficiency Total retail: the company generated retail revenue of RMB9.98bn (about USD1.38bn) in H1E, down 8.9% yoy in RMB terms; with net profit at RMB340m, up 10.2% yoy. Retail margins: gross margin was 34.2% in H1E, up 0.7ppt yoy, with net margin at 3.4%, up 0.6ppt yoy. Pou Sheng: YY’s retail subsidiary contributed solid omnichannel data in H1E, although mainland of China was a volatile market and store footfall was weak: ·Physical store revenue: down 13% yoy in H1E (74.0% of the total), with: -Directly operated and pan-WeChat stores contributing 75%, 1.0ppt lower yoy; -Franchised stores contributing 25%, up 1.0ppt yoy. ·Omnichannel revenue: up 10% yoy and accounting for 26.0% of the total, with: -B2B contributing 14%, 1.0ppt higher yoy; -B2C contributing 86%, 1.0ppt lower yoy. ·Directly-run store network: -Pou Sheng had 3,478 directly operated stores in Greater China as of 30 June, down 6.6% on a yoy basis, and with 45 net closures vs end-2023. -The network includes 730 premium stores, accounting for 21.0%, up 1.3ppt yoy. ·Premiumization strategy: Pou Sheng’s planned new-store buildout and selective store remodeling form the crux of its premiumization strategy, which helps the business focus on raising per-store efficiency. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持买入评级 我们维持盈利预测，预计公司FY24-26年收入分别爲86.45亿美元、96.45亿美元、109.35 亿美元；归母净利分别爲3.8亿美元、4.2亿美元、4.6亿美元；EPS分别爲0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股；对应PE分别爲7x、6x、6x。 Valuation and risks We maintain our FY24/25/26E forecast with revenue at USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn and net profit at USD380m/420m/ 460m; implying USD0.24/0.26/0.29 EPS and 7x/6x/6x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：产能负载未达均衡；全球宏观经济尚未明朗；地域冲突带来航运风险；外汇风险等。 Risks: uneven capacity utilizations; global macroeconomic uncertainties; geopolitical conflicts raising shipping risks; and FX risks. 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