卓越教育集團: 業績靚麗兌現,頭部機構合規優勢顯現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《卓越教育集團: 業績靚麗兌現,頭部機構合規優勢顯現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK) 业绩靓丽兑现，头部机构合规优势显现 Robust 24H1E results: market frontrunner gains edge as a benchmark for restructure and regulatory compliance BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2024年中期业绩公告 24H1公司收入3.2亿元，同增68.1%；归母净利0.5亿元，同增160.7%；扣非归母净利0.5亿元，同增203.7%；合约负债4.6亿元，同增116.5%；毛利率45.0%，同增8.0pct；净利率16.5%，同增6.0pct。 业绩大幅增长主要系①23H1市场需求恢复缓慢致低基数；②公司完成素质转型後，产品深受家长和学员认可。 分业务看，24H1全日制复习收入1.2亿，同增19.7%；辅导项目0.8亿，同增31.9%；素质教育1.2亿，同增320.9%。 Robust 24H1E results: revenue up 68%, net profit up 170% on margin expansion Key metrics: Beststudy Education recently published unaudited 24H1E results: ·Revenue rose 68.1% yoy to RMB317.44m in the first half; ·Net profit was RMB54.42m, an increase of 170.0% yoy; ·Ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB50m (no-decimal rounding here and below), up 203.7% yoy; ·Contract liabilities amounted to RMB458.43m, up 116.5% yoy; ·Gross margin was 45.0%, up 8.0 ppt yoy, and net margin was 16.5%, up 6.0 ppt yoy. Factors: the company attributes the substantial growth mainly to: ·the low base in 23H1, when demand was weaker on a slow market recovery; ·market demand due to parents and students’ recognition of its quality product restructure. Earnings breakdown: ·Full-time review: RMB120m in 24H1E, up 19.7% yoy; ·Consultation: RMB80m, up an increase of 31.9% yoy; ·well-rounded education was RMB120m, an increase of 320.9% yoy. 紧跟教育政策方向，坚守合规底线 公司秉承教育初心，积极响应并落实双减政策精神，坚守合规经营底线。24H1，公司经部省市区各级检查累计65次，实现零处罚警示记录，获得高度认可；公司积极推进获取广州地区非学科类营利性办学许可牌照的步伐，持牌合规经营保证公司业务更具有发展持续性。 产品合规方面，公司深入贯彻“双减”政策，优化课程设置，注重课程内容的科学性和适宜性，严禁超前超标教学，确保课程符合学生认知发展规律。2022年在教育主管部门的指导下多个产品实现素质转型，是广东省首批通过非学科监定的素质类产品，2024年全部通过复核。 我们认爲，本轮双减後行业合规门槛或将显著提高，供给侧持续查处违规作坊，有利於规范企业提高集中度；同时，政策和监管始终都鼓励合规运营，全国及地方头部机构优势显现，有望成爲地区机构转型及合规标杆。 Market frontrunner: restructuring and licensing add long-term benefits Business raison d’etre: Beststudy revamped its learning content and curriculum structures in cognizance of the spirit of China’s educational policy regulations. The 2021 double-curbs policy sought to reduce twin burdens on Chinese children in the form of excessive homework and after-school tuition. On its part, Beststudy has undergone 65 ministerial, provincial and municipal reviews without incurring penalties or warnings, a feat acknowledged by consumers in demand terms. We reckon the company’s clean record is the result of a core belief that licensed and compliant operations translate into business sustainability. It is now pushing on to obtain a for-profit nonacademic school license in Guangzhou. Curriculum restructure: to reshape product content that complies fully with the dual-curbs policy, Beststudy worked under Education Ministry guidance to put in place: ·A curriculum framework with a scientific basis and appropriate course content. ·No excessive teaching outside of schedule or standards; ·Curriculums that fit students’ learning capacities according to the law of cognitive development. Thus, Beststudy revamped several products into the nonacademic category and they passed certification in 2022, the first batch in Guangdong Province to do so, after which all other products cleared certification in 2024. Rigorous regulation: in the wake of the 2021 double-curbs policy, we believe regulatory hurdles will be raised in the education industry. We expect the supply market will continue to undergo regulatory reviews to screen out noncompliant service providers. This would benefit regulated companies through tightening market concentration. The advantage of national and regional market players has emerged as policies and regulations encourage compliant business operations. We expect industry leaders will provide benchmarks for business restructure and regulatory compliance for regional educational institutions. 聚焦核心素养培养，素质转型成果显著 公司持续优化素质产品服务，聚焦於文学、科学素质等核心素养的培养，开设有“卓越编程”、“嘀嗒文学”、“文学美育”等9个素质产品，以上产品均属於广东省首批通过教育主管部门非学科监定的素质类产品。 公司基於对素质教育体系的持续研究，提出孩子生长的“六力模型”，发布“鲲鹏少年生长营项目”，采用互动式和探究式等先进教学方法，获社会及学生高度认可，助力打造素质教育品牌形象，爲公司转型提供重要保障。 Research-based core restructure to personal development electives Product launches: Beststudy continues to optimize its nonacademic personal development course products and services. To inculcate literary and scientific literacy in its core coverage, it launched nine courses including Excellence in Programming, TikTok Literature and Cultural Literary Aesthetics. They are the first batch of nonacademic products in Guangdong Province that cleared reviews by the Education Ministry. New methodologies: further research by the company into nonacademic education led it to propose the Six Forces Model to nurture children’s development. Its Kunpeng Junior Growth Camp initiative uses advanced teaching methods like interactivity and exploration, which have been well received by students and other consumers. The project has helped build up Beststudy’s brand profile as a proponent of premium nonacademic education services and adds credibility to its business restructure. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 公司素质转型获高度认可，持牌合规经营保证可持续发展。监於公司24H1表现靓丽，我们上调盈利预测，预计公司2024-26年全年收入分别爲8.8亿人民币、15.3亿人民币、18.3亿人民币（原值分别爲6.9亿人民币、10.3亿人民币、12.8亿人民币）；调後净利分别爲1.8亿人民币、2.8亿人民币、3.4亿人民币（原值分别爲1.5亿人民币、2.4亿人民币、3.1亿人民币）；EPS分别爲0.21元人民币/股、0.33元人民币/股、0.40元人民币/股（原值分别爲0.17元人民币/股、0.29元人民币/股、0.36元人民币/股）；PE分别爲12、8、6X。 Valuation and risks Beststudy’s pivot to nonacademic courses has gained market recognition and its licensed operations ensure sustainable development, in our view. Factoring in robust 24H1E results, we raised our forecast to revenue of RMB880m/1.53bn/ 1.83bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB690m/1.03bn/1.28bn); with adjusted net profit at RMB180m/280m/340m (previously RMB150m/240m/310m). EPS moves to RMB0.21/0.33/0.40 (from RMB0.17/ 0.29/0.36) and PE to 12x/8x/6x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：政策风险，新业务风险，管理风险，运营成本上升风险，公司流通市值较小风险等。 Risks include: policy, new business and management risks; rising operating costs; and small-cap stock risks. 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