好未來: 靜待盈利改善

（以下内容从天风国际证券《好未來: 靜待盈利改善》研报附件原文摘录）
　　TAL Education Group (TAL US) 静待盈利改善 FY25Q1E results: with net earnings turnaround, we would monitor the earnings improvement trend BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis FY25Q1收入4亿美元同增50%，归母净利润0.1亿美元扭亏 公司发布新一季财报FY25Q1（24/3/1-5/31）收入4.1亿美元同增50%，约30亿人民币；经营亏损0.2亿美元同比减亏70%，Non-GAAP经营利润88万美元扭亏；归母净利0.1亿美元扭亏；Non-GAAP归母净利0.3亿美元扭亏，约合2亿人民币。 截至5月末，公司递延收入6.4亿美元，同比增长66%，约合46亿人民币。 FY25Q1公司毛利率51.7%同增2.4pct；销售及营销费率29.6%同减6pct，管理费率26.5%同减12pct，其中Q1经营相关股权激励费用合计0.2亿美元，同减29%。 FY25Q1E: revenue up 50% yoy to USD400m; net loss trend reversed to USD11m profit Top and bottom lines: TAL Education recently released unaudited FY25Q1E (March to May quarter) results: ·Revenue rose 50% yoy to USD414.2m; deferred revenue was USD641.9m, up 66% yoy, as of end-May. ·Operating loss climbed back 70% yoy to USD17.3m loss ·Net profit was USD11.4m, turning around from net loss a year ago ·Non-GAAP operating profit came to USD876,000 and non-GAAP net profit to USD29.6m. Profitability ·Gross margin was 51.7% in the quarter, up 2.4ppt yoy ·Sales and marketing expense ratio was 29.6%, down 6ppt yoy ·Management expense ratio was 26.5%, down 12ppt yoy, including USD18.2m operations-related equity incentive expenses, down 29% yoy. 素养课程保持快速增长，学习机聚焦自学场景 学习服务业务FY25Q1保持增长势头，伴随多条产品线发展，该板块收入实现同比增长，其中最大收入贡献仍然是培优小班素养课程，Q1公司继续扩张学习中心网络以满足暑期旺季的需求，带动报名学生数量增长，留存率、利用率等指标环比表现较爲平稳。线上学习业务方面，公司丰富内容、加强用户互动，优化体验。 内容解决方案方面，学而思学习机Q1实现同比增长，推出迭代後的学习机经典版，升级硬件性能，继续丰富SKU选择。学而思学习机定位学生在家中自学场景，公司不断升级学习设备的软硬件和内容以满足用户需求，伴随九章大模型的发展，将AI驱动功能融入学习设备中，爲用户提供更好的学习辅助工具。 Enrichment study business growing fast; xPad tablets add self-learning scenarios Educational services maintained their fast-growth momentum in FY25Q1E: ·Product matrix: TAL rolled out multiple product lines it had developed during the quarter, which sped up yoy growth in this business, where its Peiyou small-class enrichment courses contributed the most revenue. ·Learning centers: the company expanded its learning center network to meet rising demand as student enrollments increased in the 25Q1 peak summer season. Financial indicators such as retention and utilization rates were stable qoq. ·Online enrichment learning: TAL beefed up content in this segment and boosted learner interactivity to optimize the user experience. xPad content solutions: Xueersi’s xPad educational tablet business recorded yoy growth in 25Q1E when it expanded the SKU matrix by launching the latest xPad classic model with upgraded hardware. The xPads are designed to help students study at home. The company keeps up with hardware, software and content upgrades to fulfill user requirements. Its proprietary MathGPT large language model integrate AI functionalities into the xPads to provide better learning tools. 九章大模型逐步落地，优质内容+AI打造下一代学习机 此前，中国信通院组织首轮教育大模型评估，学而思“九章大模型”顺利完成评估并获得4+级证书，成爲国内首批通过该项评估并获得当前最高评级的企业，再次印证九章大模型的领先水平；此前於24年2月发布的MathEval榜单中，九章大模型排名第一，在整体表现、中文、英文、各学段子榜单中也都具备领先优势。 6月公司推出AI数学搜索答疑工具“九章随时问”，通过引导式查询帮助学生解决困难的数学问题，爲学生提供更加便捷、高效的学习辅助。未来公司将继续发展大模型，在自研基础上进行微调、提高模型训练的数据质量，令大模型在年龄、内容、场景等方面适配。 公司以优质内容+AI打造下一代学习机，此前学而思陆续发布学习机xPad2 Pro系列、xPad2024经典款，伴随未来公司持续迭代更新软硬件与内容，丰富产品线，持续驱动业务发展及销售增长。 MathGPT LLM deployment: quality AI-driven content via next-gen study tablets LLM top runner: at China’s Academy of Information and Communications Technology first round of educational LLM evaluations, MathGPT cleared the review and obtained a level 4+ certificate. It was among the first batch of Chinese companies to do so and scored the highest rating. We reckon this adds credence to TAL’s LLM leadership. The MathEval list released in February 2024 gave top spot to MathGPT LLM. MathGPT also took the lead in terms of overall performance, as well as subjects like Chinese and English languages. Ask Any Time LLM app: TAL launched the MathGPT app tool Ask Any Time in June to help students solve difficult math problems through a series of guided queries, providing efficiency with convenience. We expect the company will keep developing and fine-tuning LLMs through independent research. We anticipate that model training will improve data quality as LLMs enhance learner profiles by adapting the data to age, content, learning scenarios and so on. Outlook: having released the xPad2 Pro series and xPad 2024 classic models, next-generation learning tablets that deliver the company’s quality content through AI, we expect TAL’s Xueersi business will keep iterating and upgrading its software, hardware and content, as it improves the product matrix. We expect the company will pace business development and sales growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 更新盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 公司爲中国领先教育科技企业，积极转型发力非学科培训，22年春季开始全面布局素质教育，并逐步推出智能教辅和教育智能硬件产品，以科技赋能教育。据FY25Q1财务表现，考虑教育业务强劲需求与前置投入，我们调整并更新盈利预测，预计FY25-FY27营收分别爲21/26/32亿美元（FY25-26前值分别爲18.7/22.9亿美元），Non-GAAP归母净利分别爲1.1/2.2/4.1亿美元（FY25-26前值分别爲1.36/2.53亿美元），对应EPS爲0.5/1.1/2.0美元/股（FY25-26前值分别爲0.64/1.19美元/股），对应PE分别爲51/26/14x。 Valuation and risks Market leader TAL is restructuring its educational service business toward a focus on noncurriculum coaching. It kicked off a comprehensive buildout of enrichment course services in the spring of 2022, when it launched smart teaching aids and educational hardware products that tie in science and technology. We have upgraded our financial forecast on factoring in FY25Q1E results, strong demand and the company’s pre-investments into the education business. We now expect revenue will come in at USD2.1bn/2.6bn/3.2bn in FY25/26/27E (previously USD1.87bn/2.29bn in FY25/26E) and non-GAAP net profit at USD110m/220m/410m (previously USD136m/253m; which corresponds to USD0.50/1.10/2.00 EPS (previously USD0.64/1.19) and 51x/26x/14x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：政策风险，新业务风险，管理风险，运营成本上升风险。 Risks include: policy, new business and management risks; and rising operating costs. 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