大健雲倉: 海外大件B2B先發制勝,數據驅動構築核心競爭力

（以下内容从天风国际证券《大健雲倉: 海外大件B2B先發制勝,數據驅動構築核心競爭力》研报附件原文摘录）
　　GigaCloud Technology (GCT US) 海外大件B2B先发制胜，数据驱动构筑核心竞争力 Initiating coverage: first mover hones edge in big-ticket B2B on foreign warehousing and data-driven solutions TP: USD56.00 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司业绩快速增长，业务结构持续优化。公司於2010年迈入跨境电商领域，积累先发优势，现专注於跨境大件商品B2B交易。 三大核心业务板块包括GigaCloud 3P、GigaCloud 1P和平台外电子商务，2023年总GMV达7.9亿美元；其中，3P业务贡献了53%的交易额，助力业绩高增。2023年公司实现营业收入7.04亿美元，同比增长43.6%；因海运费下降，营业成本增速放缓，毛利率同比提升近10个百分点；调整後净利润爲9680万美元，净利率改善明显，由2022年的5%增至13%，盈利水平显著修复。 Rising profitability driven by continual optimization of business structure GigaCloud Technology entered the cross-border ecommerce business in 2010 and has built up competitive advantages as a first mover. It now focuses on B2B big-ticket transactions through its three key divisions: GigaCloud third-party (3P) and first-party, and off-platform ecommerce. Business growth has been robust: ·Total GMV amounted to USD790m in 2023, with the lucrative 3P division contributing 53% of total transaction value. ·Revenue was USD704m last year, up 43.6%, helped by declining sea freight and slowing operating cost growth, which widened gross margin by nearly 10ppt yoy. ·Adjusted net profit was USD96.8m, as profitability growth came back in with net margin up from 5% in 2022 to 13% last year. 後疫情时代跨境家俱市场广阔，家俱出海大有可爲。需求方面，疫情时期线上消费习惯的培养和供应链的完善，促进全球电商规模和电商渗透率稳步提升， 全球B2B电商市场规模有望进一步扩大，2027年预计可达21万亿美元。而美国作爲2022年全球第一大家俱市场，预计未来需求保持稳健增长。供给方面，中国B2B出海赛道持续扩容，预计到2025年规模将达到6.9万亿元，2022-2025年GACR达到15.6%，出海增长潜力强劲。同时，美国家俱市场线上化率呈现稳健的增长趋势，有助於公司市场份额的提升。 Furniture exports have high potential in an enormous post-pandemic market Demand: the pandemic market birthed the enormous expansion of online consumption and led to supply chain enhancements as the global ecommerce market grew in scale and penetration. We project B2B ecommerce will continue to expand to a global market of USD21tr by 2027E. We believe that the US, as the largest demand market for furniture as of 2022, will keep growing steadily in the future. Supply: China’s B2B exports are expanding and we see strong growth potential in this market toward a market of RMB6.9tr by 2025E, which implies a 15.6% CAGR over 2022-25E. Meanwhile, the US furniture market is showing a strong uptrend in online sales, which we believe will help drive up GigaCloud’s market share. 供应链创新+AI解决方案建立核心竞争力，买卖增量空间促进平台规模持续扩张。公司在“供应链前置”中垂直整合电商、仓储和物流资源，实现市场整体的降本增效；利用AI技术赋能业务全链路运营，提高平台数字化水平。Seller方面，公司SKU数量达到3万+，中国出海机会的增加与全球化采购网络的构建推动平台Seller的增加；Buyer方面，多样化的平台产品供应，以及发展中国家/地区的高性价比的产品，迎合了美国经销商和客户的需求，持续吸引Buyer入驻；公司拥有稳健的市场扩张战略，配合量价齐升的发展趋势，预计整体GMV将实现良性循环。 Supply chain innovations and AI solutions form core competitive edge GigaCloud’s ecommerce platform scale continues to rise with incremental buying and selling business expansion: ·Full-chain coverage: at the forefront of its supply chain, the company vertically integrates ecommerce, warehousing and logistical resources to reduce overall costs and raise efficiency in the market. It uses AI technology to empower full-chain business operations and enhance platform digitalization. ·Sellers: the company currently has more than 30,000 merchandise SKUs and its seller numbers is increasing with rising foreign market opportunities and the construction of a global procurement network. ·Buyers: GigaCloud’s diverse merchandise platform continues to attract buyers with cost-effective products from developing markets that cater to the requirements of US dealers and customers. We expect the company’s steady market expansion strategy, as well as volume and price uptrends, to drive a virtuous circle in total GMV virtuous circle. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲大件家居线上化率较低、增速较快，且公司海外仓储模式在跨境电商中卡位独特，能够以较高的效率解决买卖方的需求。我们给予其可比上市企业平均估值水平。我们预计公司2024-2026年的营收分别爲10.5/13.9/18.2亿美元，同比增长49%/32%/31%，2024-2026年调整後净利润分别爲1.2/1.8/2.2亿美元，给予公司2025年13倍PE，对应目标价56美元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We reckon the current low online penetration of the big-ticket furniture market implies fast-growth potential. We believe GigaCloud’s foreign warehousing business model is uniquely positioned for cross-border ecommerce growth, which enables more efficient fulfillment of buyer and seller requirements. We place GigaCloud at average valuation relative to its listed peers’ valuation range. We forecast revenue of USD1.05bn/1.39bn/ 1.82bn in 2024/25/26E, up 49%/32%/31%, with adjusted net profit at USD120/180/220m. We assign a 13x PE in 2025E, which derives our target price of USD56. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：美国进口关税进一步提高，中国制造业成本大幅上升，美国家俱销售不达预期，海运成本进一步提高，美国宏观经济下行风险 Risks include: increasing US import tariffs; rising Chinese manufacturing costs; weaker US furniture sales than expected; higher shipping costs; and a slowing US macroeconomy. 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