思考樂教育: 超預期,重啓高增

（以下内容从天风国际证券《思考樂教育: 超預期,重啓高增》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Scholar Education Group (1769 HK) 超预期，重啓高增 H1E profit alert: 87% net earnings growth exceeded expectations as Scholar returns to high-growth trajectory BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布24H1正面盈利公告 公司预计24H1收入不少於3.8亿元人民币，同增超51.2%；归母净利不少於0.8亿元，同增超86.5%，其中包含共计约1090万元购股权福利开支（23H1爲360万元），剔除後归母净利不少於0.9亿元，同增超95.5%。 归母净利增加主要系①辅导课时总数增加带动公司收入增长；②公司持续提升经营效率，改善运营表现。 24H1E profit alert: Scholar set to announce net profit growth of at least 87% yoy Key financials: Scholar Education issued a profit alert for 24H1E on 5 August, expecting: ·Revenue of at least RMB380m, up more than 51.2%; ·Net profit of at least RMB80m, up more than 86.5% yoy, after expenditures such as RMB10.9m on share options and benefits (vs RMB3.6m in 23H1); ·Ex-nonrecurring net profit of at least RMB90m, up more than 95.5% yoy. Key factors: the company attributes the handsome net profit to these drivers: ·Tutoring hours increased, which augmented revenue growth; ·Operating efficiency and profitability improvements. 政策提及教育和培训消费，指引健康发展 近日国务院印发《关於促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》，提及教育和培训消费：推动高等院校、科研机构、社会组织开放优质教育资源，满足社会大衆多元化、个性化学习需求；推动职业教育提质增效，建设高水平职业学校和专业；推动社会培训机构面向公衆需求提高服务质量。 指导学校按照有关规定通过购买服务等方式引进具有相应资质的第三方机构提供非学科类优质公益课後服务；鼓励与国际知名高等院校在华开展高水平合作办学。 我们认爲，此次提及教育和培训消费或具一定代表意义，行业需求状态紮实背景下，鼓励健康发展或具长远积极信号；随着运营环境的改善，头部机构有望因此受益，获得正面成长。 Policy steers healthy growth of educational and vocational training consumption The State Council released a white paper to steer the quality development of China’s consumer service industry, including educational and vocational training: ·Educational: the council seeks to raise the quality of educational resources at colleges and universities, scientific research institutions and social organizations so as to fulfill the diverse as well as personalized learning requirements of the general public. ·Vocational training: in this segment, the white paper guides quality and efficiency improvements such as building high-tier schools for specialized trades, as well as encouraging consumer training institutions to improve their service quality so as to meet the requirements of the general public. 3P expertise: the policy guides that schools involve third-party providers with the necessary qualifications to deliver quality non-academic public welfare services such as after-school care. They could either purchase these services or use other ways that are in accordance with regulations; as such, the schools are encouraged to engage in high-level collaborations with internationally renowned universities in China. Our take: we believe the policy paper’s inclusion of education and training consumption carries representative significance. Healthy industry development would raise beneficial long-term prospects in light of strong industry demand. We believe the resulting improvements in the operating environment will benefit market leaders in their growth trajectory. 主营业务势头良好，非学科素养成效喜人 公司主营业务於24H1保持盈利并展现良好增长势头，且公司近年来积极推行业务转型，自2021年秋季推出多种非学科素养课程，目前成效喜人。 此外，公司积极探索并推出遊学业务及国际课程等举措；暑假以来，公司已举办英国、日本、美国等多项高校遊学活动。我们认爲，此举有望拓宽公司收入基础，爲长远发展带来贡献。 Scholar’s steady core business of nonacademic courses yield gratifying results Diverse personal development courses: the company’s core business remained profitable in a steady growth momentum in 24H1. It has sought to restructure the business by adding variety through the launch of nonacademic and personal development courses since the fall of 2021, which have had gratifying results. Value-added enhancements: the company’s explorations have led it to roll out study tours and international courses. For the summer vacation season, Scholar organized university study tours in foreign locations such as the UK, Japan and the US. We believe the initiative widens the company’s revenue base and would contribute to its long-term development. 建立国际化战略合作关系，打造新业务增长点 此前，思考乐妙维国际与新西兰长湾中学签署战略合作协议，正式建立战略合作关系，共同搭建相互学习的平台。长湾中学独家授权思考乐妙维国际在中国招生，并计划在新西兰长湾中学开设思考乐妙维国际校区。 未来，双方将继续深化合作，致力於爲学生提供更优质的教育体验和更多的发展机会。我们认爲，双方合作或将提供更多优质的国际教育资源和机会，促进中新两国在教育领域的深度合作，或爲公司带来新增长点。 Strategic NZ partnership set to add international business growth catalysts The Scholar Miaowei International division signed a strategic cooperation agreement with New Zealand’s Long Bay College, by which their strategic partnership would co-build a mutual learning platform. Long Bay College exclusively authorizes Scholar Miaowei International to enroll students in China with plans to open the Scholar Miaowei International Campus in Long Bay College in New Zealand. In the future, both parties plan to deepen cooperation and provide students with a better educational experience and more development opportunities. We believe the partnership will increase quality international education resources and opportunities. We believe that the strengthening of educational cooperation between China and New Zealand will add growth catalysts for Scholar. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持买入评级 基於公司24H1正面盈利公告，我们上调24-26年盈利预测。我们预计2024-26年全年收入分别爲9.8亿人民币、15.6亿人民币、22.0亿人民币（原值分别爲9.7亿人民币、13.5亿人民币、18.3亿人民币）；调後净利分别爲2.0亿人民币、2.7亿人民币、3.3亿人民币（原值分别爲1.4亿人民币、1.9亿人民币、2.3亿人民币）；EPS分别爲0.36元人民币/股、0.49元人民币/股、0.60元人民币/股（原值分别爲0.25元人民币/股、0.34元人民币/股、0.42元人民币/股）；对应PE分别爲13、9、8x。 Valuation and risks We raised our 2024/25/26E earnings forecast in light of Scholar’s 24H1E profit alert. We now expect revenue to come at RMB980m/1.56bn/2.20bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB970m/1.35bn/1.83bn); with adjusted net profit at RMB200m/ 270m/330m (previously RMB140m/190m/230m). This implies EPS of RMB0.36/0.49/0.60 (previously RMB0.25/0.34/ 0.42), corresponding to PE of 13x/9x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：政策风险；管理风险；运营成本上升风险；业绩预告仅爲初步测算，具体以公司财报爲准。 Risks include: policy risks; management risks; and rising operating costs. Note: our forecast is based on Scholar’s preliminary financial data and is subject to the release of the company’s final results. 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