騰訊控股: 遊戲有望迎來持續環比加速—騰訊控股2Q2024業績前瞻

（以下内容从天风国际证券《騰訊控股: 遊戲有望迎來持續環比加速—騰訊控股2Q2024業績前瞻》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) 遊戏有望迎来持续环比加速—腾讯控股2Q2024业绩前瞻 24Q2E preview: we believe game business grew fast qoq as revenue growth resumed and earnings improved TP:HKD476.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 整体业绩：收入增长修复，盈利继续向好。我们预计2Q24收入同比+8%，毛利同比+20%，Non-IFRS归母净利润同比+36% 我们预计2Q2024腾讯收入约1619亿元，同比+8%，增速较1Q2024有所恢复。遊戏增长开始修复，广告继续维持较高同比增长，FBS收入增速环比有所下滑。 我们预计2Q2024公司整体毛利约850亿元，同比+20%；整体毛利率爲52.5%，同比提升5.1pct，环比基本持平。高毛利率的增量业务（包括小遊戏分成、视频号广告、金融科技高毛利率产品、带货技术服务费等）的占比有望持续提升。 我们预计2Q2024公司Non-IFRS经营利润约573亿元，同比增长25%；Non-IFRS经营利润率约35.4%，同比提升4.6pct，环比下降1.3pct。考虑到二季度上线了重量级新遊《地下城与勇士：起源》，我们预计2Q2024销售费用投放环比有所增长，整体或仍低於4Q2023水平（彼时《元梦之星》上线）。 我们预计2Q2024公司Non-IFRS归母净利润约511亿元，同比增长36%；Non-IFRS归母净利润率约31.6%，同比提升6.4pct，环比微增0.1pct。我们预计2Q2024Non-IFRS归母净利润增长快於经营利润增长，主要系：1）预计部分重点投资企业盈利提升下，2Q2024分占联合营公司损益继续同比提升。2）预计2Q2024公司Non-IFRS所得税率高基数下同比下滑，或逐步回归常态区间。 24Q2E preview: revenue up 8% yoy and non-IFRS net profit up 36% yoy This report presents a preview of Tencent’s 24Q2E earnings prior to its results release scheduled for 14 Aug 2024. We believe revenue growth resumed in Q2E, which have boosted earnings. Key metrics: ·Revenue: we expect Tencent generated about RMB161.9bn in revenue in 24Q2E, up 8% yoy as growth sped up vs Q1. Segmentally, we reckon game revenue resumed growth, ads maintained high yoy growth, and fintech and business services (FBS) growth likely slowed qoq. ·Gross profit: we expect about RMB85bn in gross profit, up 20% yoy. ·Non-IFRS net profit: we expect an increase of 36% yoy. Profitability: ·Gross margin: we expect 52.5% in the second quarter, 5.1ppt wider yoy and flattish qoq. We believe that the incremental growth proportion of high-gross-margin businesses will keep expanding, including mini-games, video account ads, fintech products and tech service fees. ·Non-IFRS operating profit of about RMB57.3bn in 24Q2E, a yoy increase of 25%; with non-IFRS operating margin at about 35.4%, up 4.6ppt yoy and down 1.3ppt qoq. We expect the launch of Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile in the second quarter would have raised sales expenses qoq in Q2E, but total sales expenses would have fallen vs 23Q4 (DreamStar was launched). ·Non-IFRS net profit of about RMB51.1bn in 24Q2E, up 36% yoy, with non-IFRS net margin at about 31.6%, up 6.4ppt yoy and a 0.1ppt uptick qoq. We expect non-IFRS net profit growth to overtake operating profit growth, mainly due to: -JV earnings’ yoy growth in 24Q2E on better profitability at some key companies; -Tencent’s non-IFRS income tax rate would have declined yoy on a high base in 23Q2 and gradual normalization. 网络遊戏：我们预计国内/海外遊戏收入均有望迎来数个季度环比加速 我们预计1Q2024公司网络遊戏收入同比+10.5%，其中国内市场收入同比+9.6%，海外市场收入同比+13%。展望後续，我们预计腾讯遊戏业务收入将进入连续多个季度的环比加速，有望带动市场盈利增长预期和风险偏好持续增强。 - 国内遊戏，《地下城与勇士：起源》5月21日上线後73天内共有63天IOS遊戏畅销榜排名第一。参考《王者榮耀》流量量级，我们预计其增量贡献显著，腾讯国内遊戏收入将处於3-4个季度的环比加速。 - 海外遊戏，《荒野乱斗》优异表现推动1Q2024海外遊戏流水同比+34%，4月至今其在主要市场的IOS畅销榜排名较一季度进一步提升，叠加Supercell新遊戏《Squad busters》5月末全球上线，考虑到海外遊戏流水递延周期，我们预计腾讯海外遊戏收入同样将迎来数个季度的环比加速。 Online games: both China and foreign revenue growth likely sped up qoq We expect Tencent’s online game revenue grew 10.5% yoy in 24Q1E as the China market rose 9.6% yoy and the foreign market grew 13% yoy. Up ahead, we expect game revenue growth will accelerate qoq for several consecutive quarters, which would raise the market’s earnings growth expectations and expand its risk appetite. China market: ·Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile topped iOS bestselling games listings on 63 of the 73 days since it was launched on 21 May. ·Honor of Kings: we believe user traffic volumes contributed to the game’s strong incremental growth. ·Market outlook: we expect Chinese market game revenue will accelerate qoq in the next 3-4 quarters. Foreign market: ·Brawl Stars: a strong performance by Brawl Stars likely boosted Tencent’s foreign market turnover growth at 34% yoy in 24Q1. The game’s current ranking on iOS bestseller lists in major markets has improved since April vs Q1. ·Squad Busters Supercell launched the new game worldwide at end-May. ·Market outlook: we expect Tencent’s foreign game revenue will accelerate qoq over the next several quarters. 网络广告：我们预计收入同比+19%，势头延续；预计毛利率提升至57% 我们预计2Q2024广告收入同比+19%，环比+12%，主要由於视频号流量继续健康增长、广告扩容有序进行、AI技术平台提升投放效果。我们预计2Q2024广告业务毛利率提升至57.3%，主要由於二季度电商旺季，高毛利率的视频号广告占比有望进一步提升。 Online ads: revenue growth maintained at 19% yoy in Q2E; 57% gross margin We expect 24Q2E advertising revenue would have grown 19% yoy and 12% qoq, mainly due to healthy user traffic growth at video accounts, smooth expansion of the advertising business, along with improved delivery of the AI technology platform. We expect advertising gross margin would have increased to 57.3% in Q2E, mainly because it was ecommerce peak season. We expect the proportion of high-gross-margin video account ads will keep expanding. 金融科技及企业服务：我们预计收入同比+6%，宏观消费或小幅影响金融科技增速 我们预计2Q2024金融科技及企业服务收入同比+6%，增速较1Q2024略有回落，主要由於宏观消费放缓下，我们预计2Q2024金融科技服务收入数下增速回落至低个位数数水平。公司金融科技及企业服务毛利率由4Q2021的27.1%持续提升至1Q2024的45.6%，其中包括宏观需求回暖带动的经营杠杆恢复、云业务重组带动毛利率提升、以及视频号带货技术服务费的快速发展。我们预计业务毛利率提升趋势有望在中期内延续。 FBS: revenue rose 6% yoy in Q2E partially due to rising macro consumption ·Revenue: we expect fintech and corporate services generated revenue growth of 6% yoy in 24Q2E, slightly down from 24Q1, mainly due to a slowdown in macro consumption as revenue growth declined to a low-single-digit. ·Gross margin increased from 27.1% in 21Q4 to 45.6% in 24Q1, as operating leverage improved on a macro demand recovery and gross margin expanded with a cloud business restructure, on top of fast-growing video account tech service fees. We expect the gross margin uptrend to be maintained in the medium term. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 公司高毛利率的增量业务奠定了毛利率持续提升基础，国内/海外遊戏的超预期流水表现隐含未来数个季度遊戏收入环比加速。我们上调2024-2026年预测Non-IFRS归母净利润至2091/2396/2691亿元（原预测爲2047/2356/2648亿元），同比增速分别爲33%/15%/12%。截止2024/8/4，公司股价对应2024/2025/2026年预测PE分别爲15x/13x/12x，12个月彭博滚动前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1.4个标准差，处於8%的历史分位值。相对纳指12个月彭博前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1.5个标准差，处於9%历史分位值，估值处於相对低位。我们预计2Q2024遊戏增长开始修复，叠加业绩後有望恢复回购，有助於改善估值约束。维持目标价476港元，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Forecast: Tencent’s emerging uptrend in high-gross-margin incremental business strengthens total gross margin, while better-than-expected performances in the China and foreign game markets suggest that game revenue will accelerate qoq over the next few quarters. We raise our non-IFRS net profit forecast to RMB209.1bn/239.6bn/ 269.1bn in 2024/25/26E, up 33/15/12% (previously RMB204.7bn/235.6bn/264.8bn). Valuation: Tencent’s current valuation appears to be relatively low: the stock is trading at 15x/13x/12x forward PE in 2024/25/26E (as of 4 Aug 2024), while the Bloomberg 12M forward PE is 1.4 std dev below the 5-year median and within the 8th historical percentile. Relative to Nasdaq, 12M Bloomberg forward PE is 1.5 std dev below the 5-year median and within the 9th historical percentile. We expect Tencent’s game business will enter a growth recovery cycle in 24Q2E. Post-results, we believe the company will resume share buybacks, which would help ease the current valuation overhang. We maintain our BUY rating and target price at HKD476. 风险提示：宏观经济增长不确定性；公司新遊戏上线存在不确定性；AI技术商业化节奏慢於预期。 Risks include: uncertainties about macroeconomic growth; profit uncertainties with new game launches; and slower-than-expected progress toward AI tech monetization. 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