新東方-S: 撥開短期雜音,加速成長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《新東方-S: 撥開短期雜音,加速成長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) 拨开短期杂音，加速成长 FYQ4E top line up 32% but bottom line dragged by East Buy and other short-term factors; FY25E growth ramp-up BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis FY24Q4收入同增32%，Non-GAAP归母净利受短期因素影响同减41% 公司发布新一期财报，FY24Q4（2024/3/1-2024/5/31）收入11.4亿美元同增32.1%，其中出国备考同增17.7%，出国谘询同增17.3%，成人及大学生备考业务同增16.4%；教育新业务保持强劲增长，同增50.3%，其中非学科类教培报名人次88万，智能学习系统季度内活跃付费用户达18.8万。 FYQ4E revenue up 32%; non-GAAP net profit down 41% yoy on short-term drag FY24Q4E revenue profile: New Oriental Education & Technology released unaudited FY24Q4E (fiscal quarter ended May 2024) results on 31 July with revenue at USD1.14bn, up 32.1% yoy. A business breakdown in yoy terms shows: ·Preparation for foreign college entrance exams increased 17.7% ·Consultations on studying overseas increased 17.3% ·Adult classes and local exam prep increased 16.4% ·New education business initiatives maintained strong growth at 50.3%, with: -880,000 non-academic training course enrollments and -188,000 active paying users of the company’s smart learning system and devices. FY24Q4公司Non-GAAP经营利润0.4亿美元同减53.8%，Non-GAAP OPM3.2%同减5.9pct；归母净利0.3亿美元同减6.9%，Non-GAAP归母净利0.4亿美元同减40.5%，Non-GAAP归母净利率3.2%同减4pct。 FYQ4E profit profile: non-GAAP operating profit was USD40m, down 53.8% yoy, with non-GAAP OPM at 3.2%, down 5.9ppt yoy; net profit at USD30m, down 6.9% yoy; and non-GAAP net profit at USD40m, down 40.5% yoy, with non-GAAP net margin at 3.2%, down 4ppt yoy. FY24全年公司收入43.1亿美元同增43.9%；Non-GAAP OPM爲11%同增1.6pct；归母净利润3.1亿美元同增74.6%，Non-GAAP归母净利3.8亿美元同增47.2%，Non-GAAP归母净利率8.8%同增0.2pct。 FY24E key metrics: ·Revenue amounted to USD4.31bn, up 43.9% yoy ·Net profit was USD310m, up 74.6% yoy ·Non-GAAP net profit was USD380m, up 47.2% yoy; with non-GAAP net margin at 8.8%, up 0.2ppt yoy ·Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 11%, up 1.6ppt yoy. 我们认爲，FY24Q4利润同比减少主要系：1）公司投资加速扩展教育空间及新整合的文旅业务；2）提升管理层及员工的薪酬奖励；3）东方甄选Q4的短期影响。伴随後续短期因素不再、网点利用率及经营效率提升，利润压力或将快速减轻。 Our takeaways: we attribute the yoy profit decline in FYQ4E mainly to: ·Investments plowed into education to speed up growth as well as the newly integrated cultural tourism business ·Higher remunerations and incentives for management and other employees ·The short-term impact of subsidiary East Buy’s divestment of the Walk with Hui livestream ecommerce business. Our outlook for FY25E: absent of the FY24E drag factors, improving utilization rates at the learning centers and higher operating efficiency would help relieve margin pressure. 公司指引FY25Q1收入（剔除东方甄选自营产品直播电商业务）爲12.5-12.8亿美元，同比增长31-34%；利润率或同比改善2pct。FY25各业务线收入增速指引分别爲：出国备考增速20-25%，出国谘询业务增速15%左右，教育新业务增速45-50%，高中业务增速25-30%。 Company guidance for FY25E: New Oriental guided revenue of USD1.25bn-1.28bn in FY25Q1E, up 31-34% yoy (excluding East Buy’s own-label products and livestream ecommerce), expecting profit margin to improve 2ppt yoy. It projects the following revenue growth profile in FY25E by business category: ·Overseas college exam prep: up 20-25% ·Overseas study consultations: up 15% ·New education initiatives: up 45-50% ·Senior high school business: up 25-30%. FY24网点数量同增37%，新财年扩张速度预计爲20-25% 截至5月末，公司学校及学习中心数量合计爲1025间，其中学校81间；Q4即3-5月期间净增114间，Q4末数量环比增长12.5%，同比增长37%，扩张速度较快；公司计划FY25网点扩张20-25%。 我们认爲，较快的网点扩张速度反映了当前教培行业需求强劲及高景气度，未来伴随新开网点招生、利用率爬坡及规模效应的释放，公司业绩或将迎来快速增长。 Learning center network expanded 37% in FY24; plans 20-25% rise in FY25E Fast ramp-up: New Oriental’s total school and learning center network stands at 1,025 as of end-May, including 81 schools. It net added 114 outlets in FYQ4 (March to May), representing rapid growth at 12.5% qoq and 37% yoy as of end-FYQ4. The company plans to further expand its physical network by 20-25% in FY25E. Our view: we believe the rapid rise in the number of outlets reflects strong current demand and a booming education and training industry. We expect New Oriental’s profitability will grow fast in the future, boosted by enrollments at newly opened centers, higher utilization rates and the scale effect. 东方甄选系短期影响因素，文旅业务或逐步贡献业绩 新东方FY24H2利润影响主要因素之一系东方甄选业绩表现及与辉同行剥离产生的影响，後者或将在FY25Q1继续产生一次性费用，但後续相关业绩表现有望趋於平稳。 文旅业务暂处亏损状态，FY24收入约3.8亿人民币，FY25公司预计收入或达12亿人民币；FY26或可达成盈亏平衡状态，逐步爲新东方贡献可观收入业绩。 Up ahead: East Buy impact subsides; cultural tourism set to kick in profit share East Buy: one key drag on New Oriental’s profit performance in FY24H2E was the East Buy divestment of Walk with Hui, which could still incur one-off expenses in FY25Q1E, after which we expect profitability will stabilize. Cultural tourism: we believe the current loss-making phase of the business is temporary. Following RMB380m revenue in FY24E, the company expects it will generate revenue of RMB1.2bn in FY25E, and the business could break even in FY26E. We anticipate the cultural tourism business will grow gradually and could contribute substantially to total revenue in the future. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 我们持续看好新东方作爲龙头教培企业的成长前景，短期开校投入及东方甄选的一次性影响无碍公司长期成长逻辑，收入及网点扩张指引仍释放积极信号，未来伴随利用率提升，利润或得到快速释放。 考虑与辉同行剥离的一次性影响，以及Q4开校及後续利用率爬坡，我们调整盈利预测，预计FY25-27公司收入分别爲52、64、75亿美元（FY25-26前值分别爲57、73亿美元），调後归母净利分别爲5.6、7.7、10.6亿美元（FY25-26前值分别爲6.1、8.8亿美元），EPS分别爲0.3、0.4、0.6美元/股（FY25-26前值分别爲0.35、0.52美元/股），对应PE分别爲18、13、9x。 Valuation and risks We remain bullish about New Oriental’s growth prospects as a leading education and training service provider. Its investments into opening schools have only a short-term impact, while East Buy is a one-off, and we believe both will not hinder its long-term growth trajectory. The company’s upbeat guidance on revenue and school network growth suggests that incremental profit contributions could come through sooner rather than later, along with higher utilization rates. We lower our forecast for the company after factoring the one-off impact of the Walk with Hui livestream program divestment, as well as school openings in FYQ4 and the subsequent utilization ramp-up. We now project revenue at USD5.2bn/6.4bn/7.5bn in FY25/26/27E (previously USD5.7bn/7.3bn in FY25/26E) and adjusted net profit at USD560m/ 770m/1.06bn (previously USD610m/880m in FY25/26E). This implies EPS of USD0.30/0.40/0.60 (previously USD0.35/ 0.52 in FY25/26E), corresponding to 18x/13x/ 9x PE. However, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：业务拓展情况不及预期；市场竞争激烈渠道拓展不及预期等风险。 Risks include: slower-than-expected business development; intense competition risks; and lower-than-expected channel expansion. 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