東方甄選: 再起航

（以下内容从天风国际证券《東方甄選: 再起航》研报附件原文摘录）
　　East Buy Holding (1797 HK) 再起航 Post RMB77m sale of Walk with Hui, East Buy would likely retune its IP-centric valuation model BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 东方甄选拟以0.77亿出售与辉同行至董宇辉 7月25日，公司宣布旗下著名主播、与辉同行董事兼总经理董宇辉离职，其不再担任东方甄选雇员。同时公司拟将与辉同行（北京）科技有限公司出售至董宇辉，交易价格爲7659万元，相当於与辉同行截至2024年6月30日的资产净值，公司预计将不会产生收益或亏损。此外，本次董宇辉所需股权购买款，由符合上市公司规则和公司章程规定的方式予以安排支付。 East Buy to sell Walk with Hui to the show’s anchor Dong Yuhui for RMB77m Dong to own WWH: The company announced on 25 July the resignation of anchor Dong Yuhui, the director and general manager headlining the Walk with Hui (WWH) livestream ecommerce show; Hui will no longer be an employee of East Buy. As for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Walk With Hui (Beijing) Technology (WWHT), East Buy plans to sell the entire stake to Dong Yuhui for RMB76.59m, a sum equivalent to the WWHT net asset value as of 30 June 2024, which means neither gain nor loss for East Buy. The announcement said Dong will make payment in compliance with the listed company’s rules and articles of Incorporation. 与辉同行此前爲东方甄选100%控股子公司，公司认爲其品牌与董宇辉及其个人知识产权密不可分，董宇辉离职後无法持续经营，且相关知识产权将不会爲公司带来经济利益，因此出售符合集团及股东最佳利益。出售事项将於出售协议日期起6个月内完成，此後与辉同行将不再并表；信息系统无偿交付与辉同行使用。 同时公司拟将与辉同行在成立期间（2023/12/22-2024/6/30）所有余下未分配净利奖励董宇辉，期间与辉同行净利1.4亿人民币。 此外，公司公告拟在一年内回购不超过5亿人民币的公司股份。 Sale rationale: East Buy believes the WWH brand to be inextricably linked to Dong Yuhui and his personal intellectual property rights, so with Dong’s departure the IP would not be sustainable and East Buy would no longer enjoy economic benefits. Thus, selling it to Dong is acting in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. Data system access: the transaction will be completed within 6 months of the sale agreement, when WWH will no longer be part of its consolidated financials. East Buy is making its proprietary data system available to WWH to use for free. Undistributed WWH profit: the company intends to reward Dong with all of the remaining undistributed net profit during the period of establishing WWH (22 Dec 2023 to 30 June 2024), during which WWH’s net profit amounted to RMB140m. Buybacks: East Buy also said it will repurchase up to RMB500m of its shares within the next one year. FY25以来与辉同行约占公司抖音渠道GMV65% 据灰豚数据，我们估算FY24H2（2023/12-2024/5）东方甄选抖音GMV约80亿，其中东方甄选系列账号49亿（占抖音渠道总GMV61%，下同），与辉同行31亿（占总39%）； FY25财年初至公告当日（2024/6/1-7/24）东方甄选抖音GMV约19亿，其中东方甄选系列账号7亿（占总35%），与辉同行12.5亿（占总65%）。 我们认爲本次剥离後，东方甄选有望构建全新估值体系。尽管与辉同行GMV出色，但东方甄选市值低迷，我们认爲主要或系强IP化模式拖累估值体系； 我们认爲本次剥离：一方面，有望逐步构建以自营品爲核心的估值及跟踪架构，目前已有多个成功热门产品潜力可期。另一方面，短期构成GMV冲击，但後续有望对於可持续发展及长期盈利能力奠定坚实基础。第三，未来与新东方或有更多资源协同。 Potential post-divestiture restructure of GMV valuation model WWH’s high GMV: based on Huitun.com data, we estimate East Buy had about RMB8bn GMV on Douyin (TikTok) in FY24H2E (the fiscal half-year ended in May 2024), of which East Buy’s own accounts generated RMB4.9bn (accounting for 61% of its total Douyin GMV; the same applies below) and WWH generated RMB3.1bn is (39% of the total). More recently, WWH’s share expanded to about 65% of East Buy’s Douyin channel GMV in FY25 to date (as of the announcement on 25 July) — a period 5 days’ shy of 2 months. The company’s total Douyin GMV in the period amounted to about RMB1.9bn: RMB700m (35%) from East Buy’s own accounts and RMB1.25bn (65%) from WWH. Valuation model retune? We expect East Buy will recast its GMV valuation model from this point. Relative to WWH’s robust GMV, East Buy’s own accounts tend to hold sluggish market value, which reflects the limitations of a valuation model focused on IP GMV: ·Proprietary products: we expect the company will restructure its valuation and tracking model centered on proprietary products at the core, in which case we already see a number of potentially successful and popular products. ·Brief GMV impact: this could bear a short-term GMV impact but we believe the payoff will be sustainable development as East Buy builds a firm foundation for long-term profitability. ·Future resources: we believe that East Buy will build up more resource synergy with parent New Oriental in the future. 尽管本次董宇辉离职，但展望未来，东方甄选将继续培养、壮大、训练及留住一支才华横溢的主播团队，以愉悦的方式向观衆传达公司提供的优质产品及其背後的励志性知识性智慧，并提炼“简单易懂”的中国文化、历史和福祉信息。 Outlook: more of East Buy’s unique user engagement model via talented anchors Even with Dong’s departure, we expect East Buy will continue to drive its business model based on talent cultivation and growth, where it continues to train and retain a team of talented anchors who will promote the company’s quality products by conveying wisdom and inspiration, while pleasantly engaging their audiences. We believe the company will refine its user engagement model based on easy-to-understand facts about Chinese culture, history and well-being. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 考虑出售与辉同行对公司业绩影响，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司FY24-26收入分别爲61亿人民币、53亿人民币、62亿人民币（前值分别爲61亿人民币、74亿人民币、91亿人民币），调後归母净利润分别爲6亿人民币、5亿人民币、6亿人民币（前值分别爲9亿人民币、10.4亿人民币、12.3亿人民币），EPS分别爲0.58人民币/股、0.49人民币/股、0.59元人民币/股（前值分别爲0.9元人民币/股、1.0元人民币/股、1.2元人民币/股），对应PE分别爲19、22、18x。 Valuation and risks Considering the impact of the WWH sale on East Buy’s profits, we lower our forecast to revenue of RMB6.1bn/5.3bn/6.2bn in FY24/25/26E (previously RMB6.1bn/7.4bn/9.1bn); with adjusted net profit at RMB600m/500m/600m (previously RMB900m/1.04bn/1.23bn); implying EPS of RMB0.58/0.49/0.59 (previously RMB0.9/1.0/1.2) and corresponding to 19x/22x/18x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：电商热度不及预期；新账号销售情况不及预期；市场竞争激烈；渠道拓展不及预期等风险。 Risks include: weaker ecommerce engagement than expected; lower sales of new accounts than expected; intense competition; and less-than-expected channel expansion. 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