裕元集團: 業績盈喜上半年高增

（以下内容从天风国际证券《裕元集團: 業績盈喜上半年高增》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (0551 HK) 业绩盈喜上半年高增 24H1E positive alert: YY expects robust profit growth of at least 115% yoy while adidas eased inventory pressure BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布正面盈利预告 公司预计24H1归母净利同增115%-120%至1.80-1.84亿美元；其中24Q2归母净利爲0.80-0.84亿美元，同增143%-156%。 盈利增加主要系全球鞋履行业逐渐回暖，公司制造业务的鞋履产能需求畅旺，叠加低基期效应。 此外，公司24H1并无产能调整的相关费用，去年同期因产能调整产生一次性费用约 0.2亿美元； 同时，公司24H1出售联营公司部分股权产生一次性收益约0.24亿美元，带来正面贡献。 24H1E positive earnings alert: net profit rose 115-120% yoy as market recovered Key metrics: Yue Yuen (YY) issued a profit alert to inform investors that it will report net profit of USD180-184m in 24H1E, increasing 115-120% yoy, with 24Q2E contributing USD80-84m, up 143-156% yoy. The earnings spike was mainly due to the recovery of the global footwear industry, which drove up footwear capacity demand in YY’s manufacturing business, as well as a low comparative base. Expenses: in terms of expense management, capacity adjustment expenses were absent in 24H1E — 23H1 data were dragged by a one-time USD20m expense relating to capacity adjustments. One-off gain: YY partially disposed of its stakes in associate companies, which led to a one-off gain of about USD24m, greatly boosting profits. 灵活调度产能带动复甦，降本增效持续推动利润增长 公司透过灵活调度产能以及有序加班计划，带动制造业务产能利用率及鞋履出货量的良好复甦。但由於部分厂区配合加班赶工推高利用率，叠加新增产能爬坡，导致产能负载未达均衡。 此外，公司致力於推行降本增效计划，叠加低基期效应，从而带动利润的稳健增长。公司将增强其经营韧性，打造高度敏捷而灵活的营运模式，辅以综观全局的人力与产能提升计划，以平衡需求、订单排程及劳动力供应，进而提升产效。 Operations: capacity flexibility, cost and efficiency efforts drove up profit growth Elastic capacities: YY’s capacity scheduling flexibility and good overtime planning generally bolstered manufacturing capacity utilization and footwear shipments, despite uneven capacity loads with new production capacities in the ramp-up phase so that some factories had to work overtime to push up utilization rates. Cost cuts: other factors that helped drive a steady profit growth trend were implementations of cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, as well as a low yoy base effect. Outlook: the company is looking to strengthen operational resilience to create a nimble operating business model, which would be complemented by a holistic program to boost manpower and ramp up capacity. This would help balance the factors in play like demand, order scheduling and labor supply. 大客户Adidas库存压力大幅缓解，利好核心供应链 公司大客户Adidas此前发布财报，24Q2收入58.2亿欧元，同增11%（货币中性）；预计全年收入实现高个位数增长。截至24/6/30，Adidas库存爲45.4亿欧元，同减17%（货币中性），库存压力大幅缓解，利好供应链厂商，裕元有望受益。 Major customer adidas: inventory pressure relief bolsters YY’s core supply chain YY’s major customer adidas released 24Q2 earnings with revenue at EUR5.82bn, up 11% yoy on a currency neutral basis. adidas now expects full-year revenue will grow at a high-single-digit pace. The good news for supply chain manufacturers like Yue Yuen is that adidas eased inventory pressures; its inventory shrank 17% yoy (currency neutral) to EUR4.54bn as of 30 June 2024. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 我们维持盈利预测，预计公司FY24-26年收入分别爲86.45亿美元、96.45亿美元、109.35 亿美元；归母净利分别爲3.8亿美元、4.2亿美元、4.6亿美元；EPS分别爲0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股；对应PE分别爲6x、6x、5x。 Valuation and risks We maintain our forecast for Yue Yuen at revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn in FY24/25/26E, with net profit at USD380m/420m/460m, implying EPS of USD0.24/0.26/0.29 and corresponding to 6x/6x/5x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争环境加剧风险；法律合规及企业管治风险；资讯科技及数据安全风险；品牌客户集中度风险；经济及社会环境风险；现仅爲盈利预告，请以公司最终报告爲准。 Risks include: intensifying competition; legal compliance and corporate governance risks; IT and data security risks; brand customer concentration risks; and economic and socio-environmental risks. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and are subject to the release of the company’s final results. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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