樂歌股份: 海外倉順應跨境蓬勃需求

（以下内容从天风国际证券《樂歌股份: 海外倉順應跨境蓬勃需求》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Loctek Ergonomic Technology (300729 CH) 海外仓顺应跨境蓬勃需求 Robust H1E: thriving foreign warehousing business on a demand rise in synergy with cross-border ecommerce BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2024年半年度报告 24H1收入24.3亿，同增45%，归母净利润1.6亿，同减64%，扣非归母净利润1.1亿，同增30%，其中非经常损益主要来自非流动性资产处置损益； 24Q2收入13.1亿，同增48%，归母净利润0.8亿，同增74%，扣非归母净利润0.7亿，同增6%。分产品，24H1人体工学系列产品收入13.4亿，同比+17.4%，毛利率40.2%，同比-1.3pct；仓储物流服务收入8.5亿，同比+129.9%，毛利率15.0%，同比+5.4pct。 24H1E financials show strong growth in revenue and net profit H1E: Loctek Ergonomic Technology released unaudited 24H1E earnings data with revenue at RMB2.43bn (up 45% yoy), net profit at RMB160m (down 64% yoy) and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB110m (up 30% yoy). The non-recurring items mainly related to the disposal of illiquid assets. Q2E: revenue amounted to RMB1.31bn in the second quarter of 2024, up 48% yoy, while net profit shot up 74% yoy to RMB80m, although ex-nonrecurring net profit rose just 6% yoy to RMB70m. Key revenue drivers: ·Ergonomic products delivered revenue of RMB1.34bn in 24H1E (up 17.4% yoy), with gross margin at 40.2% (down 1.3ppt yoy). ·Warehousing and logistical service revenue spiked 129.9% yoy to RMB850m in H1E, with gross margin at 15.0%, widening 5.4ppt yoy. 中大件海外仓竞争壁垒突出，仓储面积持续扩容 截至2024年7月末公司全球布局17仓、面积48万方，累计服务客户778家；24H1处理包裹超400万个，同增120%，收入增速靓丽；通过有序扩仓，库容利用率、周转的提升，发件数量同比显著增加，尾程折扣议价能力增强，盈利能力持续改善。 乐歌海外仓集合了自身跨境电商业务货量以及所服务客户的货量，规模化优势明显，提升了公司与跨境物流产业链上下游的议价能力，包括但不限於在头程海运、卡车派送、仓储服务成本、尾程快递、支付等方面的议价能力；此外公司拥有14年跨境电商和12年海外仓运营经验，深知中大件跨境卖家的痛点难点，可以提供更加经济、高效的服务。 公司以较低价格在美国核心港口储备了5000亩工业物流用地，满足未来自建仓需求。经公司测算，自建海外仓持有成本是租赁成本的1/3-1/2，自建占比提升可有效降低海外仓物业成本，增加盈利空间，形成独有竞争壁垒。 Foreign warehousing: storage area expansion; edge in medium-to-large parcels Warehousing: Loctek’s global storage network comprises 17 warehouses with a total area of 480,000 sq m and serves 778 customers as of end-July 2024. Revenue growth is healthy and the business processed over 4m parcels in 24H1, up 120% yoy. Well-paced warehouse expansion helped raise storage capacity utilization and turnover rates, while shipment numbers strongly increased yoy. Better bargaining power also improved last-mile delivery discounting, which helped raise profitability. Business synergy: Loctek’s foreign warehousing business enhances its scale advantage by augmenting volumes at Loctek’s own cross-border ecommerce business and its customers’ business. Growing scale has improved the company’s bargaining power in the upstream and downstream markets across the cross-border logistics value chain. For instance, better bargaining power impacts the first leg of shipping, truck deliveries, warehouse service costs, last-mile express deliveries and payments, to name a few areas. Loctek is able to provide more economical and efficient services on the strength of its 14 years of experience in cross-border ecommerce and 12 years in foreign warehouse operations. The company has amassed a knowledge base to resolve pain points experienced by cross-border merchants in the medium to large parcel business. Land reserves: the company has amassed industrial land reserves amounting to 5,000mu (333.33ha) around core ports in the US, which it acquired at relatively low prices in anticipation of future demand to build its own warehouses. It estimates holding cost for self-constructed warehouses comes to only one-third to half of the leasing cost. A growing proportion of self-built warehouses would effectively reduce property-related costs in the foreign warehousing business. Further, it would help widen profit margins, while erecting a market barrier. 跨境电商：拓品类成效初现，独立站增长靓丽 24H1公司跨境电商收入9.2亿，同增20%，其中独立站表现亮眼，收入3.7亿，同增21%，同比增长提速。一方面公司拓品类初见成效，24H1欧美消费需求整体向好、电商渗透率稳步提升，健康办公、智能升降家居产品渗透率持续上升，公司新品类销售占比8%；另一方面，独立站增长靓丽，24H1独立站收入占跨境电商40.3%，能够较好满足定制化需求，且人均消费金额更高，能够自主设置营销策略和开展营销活动如“5·25”会员日等。我们乐观期待下半年公司旺季表现。 Global ecommerce: wider categories; growing direct-sales ecommerce Cross-border ecommerce drew revenue of RMB920m in 24H1E, an increase of 20% yoy, with Loctek’s direct-sales ecommerce performing handsomely with revenue of RMB370m, maintaining the uptrend at 21% yoy growth. its product category expansion has achieved initial results as consumer demand returned in Europe and the US in 24H1. Deepening ecommerce penetration has been driven by the rise of health-oriented office and height-adjustable home products, where sales of the company’s new product categories accounted for 8%. Loctek’s direct sales are doing well, having generated 40.3% of its cross-border ecommerce revenue in H1E. We attribute more effective demand fulfillment via customization, higher per-capita consumption and direct-sales marketing strategies and activities such as the 5-25 Membership Day. We anticipate better profitability in the H2E peak season ahead. 海运费回落预计盈利改善，产业链全球布局规避风险 24H1公司毛利率31.4%，同比-4.4pct，扣非净利率4.4%，同比-0.5pct，我们预计主要系海运费上涨因素影响；当前海运费已现回落，我们预计下半年盈利能力或有所改善。 公司全球布局4个生产基地，供应链稳定，生产保障能力强，抗风险能力和成本优势明显，可实现0关税出口美国，凭藉领先的生产规模优势和全球化制造布局，公司在采购上具有较高的议价能力及供应链整合能力，也拥有了海内外市场竞争对手难以复制的效率及成本优势，我们预计整体关税风险可控。 Sea freight decline could raise profitability in H2E; risk-averse production network Profitability potential: gross margin was 31.4% in 24H1E, down 4.4ppt yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net margin at 4.4%, down 0.5ppt yoy. We believe the key factor was high sea freight. Taking currently falling shipping costs into account, we expect H2E profitability will improve. Risk-averse global network: Loctek has a global network of four production facilities, a stable supply chain, production support capabilities, as well as risk-averse and cost advantages. Competitive advantages include having foreign bases that enable zero-tariff exports to the US, production scale advantages and growing global manufacturing capacities. Other competitive barriers are strong bargaining power, supply chain integration that aids procurements, and efficiency and cost advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate in both the Chinese and foreign markets. Further, we regard total tariff risk for the company as manageable. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 三方海外仓+跨境电商精准卡位，受益赛道景气及竞争力验证，我们预计24-26年归母分别爲4.5亿/5.1亿/5.7亿，对应PE分别爲10X/9X/8X，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks The synergy of Loctek’s third-party foreign warehousing with cross-border ecommerce enables precise market positioning, as the company benefits from the market boom and its own strong competitiveness. We expect Loctek will generate revenue of RMB450m/ 510m/570m in 2024/25/26E, with PE corresponding to 10x/9x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：海外需求不及预期；新仓爬坡不及预期；线上竞争加剧；加徵关税风险等 Risks include: lower-than-expected foreign market demand; slower-than-expected new warehouse ramp-up; increasing ecommerce competition; and tariff risks. 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