泡泡瑪特: 24H1業績點評:收入利潤均超預期,看好IP+渠道+產品共振持續貢獻成長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《泡泡瑪特: 24H1業績點評:收入利潤均超預期,看好IP+渠道+產品共振持續貢獻成長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 24H1业绩点评：收入利润均超预期，看好IP+渠道+产品共振持续贡献成长 24H1E profit alert: revenue and profit above expectations; IP, channel and product enhancements lift growth profile BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：2024年7月18日，泡泡玛特发布正面盈利预告，根据1-6月的未经审核报表，预计上半年收入的同比增长不低於55%，利润（不包括未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长不低於90%。 H1E profit alert: revenue expanded 55% yoy; profit rose at least 90% yoy Financials: Pop Mart issued a 24H1E profit alert on 18 July 2024 based on unaudited data: revenue and profit are estimated to outperform Bloomberg consensus expectations, and compare favorably against 23H1 revenue of RMB2.81bn and profit of RMB477m. The key metrics in 24H1E were: ·Revenue grew at least 55% yoy to at least RMB4.36bn; ·Profit rose at least 90% yoy to at least RMB906m. 主要原因爲：1）泡泡玛特品牌及IP在全球认可度进一步提升，多样化的产品品类促进收入增长，其中港澳台及海外收入高速增长；2）持续优化产品成本，加强费用管控，提升盈利能力，规模效益使得利润有大幅增加。根据2023H1泡泡玛特收入28.14亿元、利润4.77亿换算，2024H1公司收入预计不低於43.62亿元，利润将不低於9.06亿元，均超彭博一致预期。 Key factors: ·Growing global recognition of the Pop Mart brand and IP content: widely diverse product categories expanded revenue growth, particularly in the Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign markets. ·Cost management was impressive as Pop Mart dialed down product costs and expenses to expand profitability, while economies of scale shot up profit growth. 产品侧，热门产品有序推出拉动收入增长。Peach Riot（叛桃）/ POLAR/ OIPIPPI/ Nyota/ 星星人等新IP有序释出，品类多元化覆盖更广消费需求。24H1泡泡玛特有16个系列进入天猫盲盒畅销榜TOP20，包括龙吟献瑞、SKULLPANDA温度、THE MONSTER看不见我、DIMOO在你身边、PUCKY精灵美食大酒楼等系列。品类方面，除盲盒外拓展衍生品周边、搪胶毛绒、积木、卡牌等业务线，提升产品可玩性和互动性。截至7月25日，LABUBU心动马卡龙搪胶盲盒单品天猫销量已超20万件。公司5月31日正式发布积木产品线POPBLOCKS，首发LABUBU森林秘密基地系列积木，基於IP概念设定做可视化展现和场景的复原，以积木爲载体，赋予IP更多故事性，有望补充IP内容属性、增长生命周期。 Products: new IPs and new categories drove up revenue growth New IP characters such as Peach Riot, Polar, Oipippi, Nyota and Twinkle Twinkle rolled out smoothly. Blind boxes: Pop Mart had 16 of its collections listed among the top 20 bestsellers in Tmall’s blind-box listings in 24H1, including Loong Presents the Treasure, SkullPanda The Warmth, The Monster Can’t See Me, Dimoo By Your Side and Pucky Ucky Elf Gourmet Restaurant. New categories: the company widened its consumer group coverage with derivative peripherals such as vinyl plush dolls, building blocks and cards that dial up the playability and interactivity of its products. It sold over 200,000 Labubu’s Heart-beating Macaron Vinyl blind boxes on Tmall. Pop Mart launched Pop Blocks, its building block collection, on 31 May, along with the first Labubu The Monsters Forest Secret Base Pop Blocks. Pop Blocks enrich storytelling for an IP character and are set to supplement the main IP content and lengthen its life-cycle. 渠道侧，海外方面，门店高速拓展，单店业绩水平表现优秀。据公司官方账号不完全统计，2024H1泡泡玛特海外新开26家门店，去年同期2023H1海外开店19家。其中，东南亚持续渗透，美国落地进展加速：24H1，美国新增6家门店，包括西雅图贝尔维尤广场店、加利福尼亚州洛杉矶圣莫尼卡大道店、加利福尼亚州格伦代尔市凯丹大道店、加利福尼亚州格伦代尔百老汇西100号店、华盛顿州奥尔德伍德购物中心店、拉斯维加斯大道3200号店；越南、泰国各新增2家线下店。泡泡玛特在越南连开两店，分别是巴拿山乐园古堡主题店和胡志明市的Crescent Mall首家线下门店。东南亚市场单店表现突出。24年6月新开泰国曼谷小野快闪店首日营收接近500万元，24年7月泰国曼谷LABUBU IP主题店首日营业额突破1000万人民币，创下国产潮玩海外门店单日销售新纪录。我们持续看好海外保持高速扩张，全球渠道拓展有望继续提升热门产品出现概率及多IP矩阵经营稳定性。我们认爲目前公司在东南亚的规模化复制能力已验证，後续关注欧美的IP本地化速度和拓展情况。国内持续恢复，相较大盘凸显强韧性和alpha属性。根据公司一季度经营数据，国内零售店渠道收益同比增长20%-25%，机器人商店渠道收益同比增长15%-20%。 Channels: foreign store network ramp-up and higher per-store profits in SEA We estimate Pop Mart opened 26 new stores in foreign markets in 24H1, based on incomplete data from its official social media accounts (vs 19 new stores in 23H1): Southeast Asia penetration continued in H1, as Pop Mart added two new stores each in Vietnam and Thailand. Per-store profitability is particularly strong in this market: ·Vietnam: the Paradise Castle theme store in Ba Na Hill Station and its first physical store in Ho Chi Minh City at Crescent Mall. ·Thailand: the Hirono pop-up store opened in Bangkok in June 2024 and drew revenue of nearly RMB5m on the first day. The Labubu theme store opened a month later, also in the capital city, with first-day sales surpassing RMB10m, marking a new daily sales record for trendy Chinese toys sold in foreign stores. United States: the store buildout in the US sped up in 24H1 with six new stores: one in Bellevue Square (Seattle), three in California – Santa Monica Boulevard (Los Angeles), Galleria Way (Glendale) and 100 West Broadway (Glendale) – one in Alderwood Mall (Washington State) and one at 3200 Las Vegas Boulevard (Nevada). Foreign market outlook: we are bullish about Pop Mart’s foreign market ramp-up. Its international channel expansion would increase exposure for the popular products and aid operational stability altogether for its multiple-IP product matrix. We believe the company has proven its ability to replicate business at scale in Southeast Asia. We reckon it will keep pushing through its IP localization strategy through Europe and the US. Mainland of China market: the domestic market is still recovering and we like its resilience and alpha characteristics relative to other markets. Revenue from the mainland retail store channel increased 20-25% yoy in Q1E, with revenue from Robo Shops up 15-20% yoy, according to the company’s business update. 新业态方面，自研遊戏发力IP内容生态完善，有望提供线上宣发渠道，建议关注其与实体商品销售的协同作用。泡泡玛特首款自研手遊《梦想家园》於6月27日公测。《梦想家园》采用“模拟经营＋派对玩法”，以遊戏作爲IP内容的表达载体，通过梦幻的场景设计，丰富的故事内容丰富IP形象。通过手遊，玩家体验更沉浸式的陪伴，加深玩家与IP的情感连接。《梦想家园》遊戏项目自去年五月发布首支PV起经过多次迭代，公测前全网预约量超过500万。上线首日《梦想家园》在iOS中国区遊戏下载榜排名第一；截至首周，下载榜排名第三，畅销榜保持在约50名。 Mobile games: first proprietary title, Dream Home, among the most downloaded In developing new product formats, Pop Mart’s proprietary games seek to boost its IP content ecosystem and will likely boost online promotion and marketing channels. We recommend that investors monitor the synergy with physical goods sales. Dream Home, Pop Mart’s first proprietary mobile game, had its beta launch on 27 June. Dream Home, which involves both simulation management and party gameplay, is filled with IP content. It brings the IP profile to digital life with dreamy scene design and rich storytelling. Mobile games allow players to enjoy more immersive companionship and deepen emotional connections with the IP characters. The project went through multiple iterations after its promotional video unveiling in May last year. Prior to the beta release, it received more than 5m reservations across the network. On the first day of launch, Dream Home was the top downloaded iOS game in China. In its first week, it remained the third most downloaded game, while hovering around the 50th place among best-selling games. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：目前新品类拓展卓有成效，东南亚市场出海逻辑已验证。收入端，国内方面，高关注度产品有序推出，有望驱动单店同比提升；海外方面，东南亚等地区高速扩店，店均高单店销售额有望持续贡献业绩弹性。利润端，规模效应优化成本及海外门店占比提升有望拉高毛利率水平。我们预计公司2024-2025年收入爲94.4/ 125.3亿元（前值分别爲81.78/102.72亿元），同比增长49.8% / 32.7%；2024-2025年调整後净利润（Non-IFRS）分别爲21.03/27.49亿元（前值分别爲16.32/20.95亿元），同比增长76.6%/30.7%。长期来看，IP变现渠道进一步拓宽有望贡献业绩增量，我们长期看好公司IP的运营能力和变现潜力，维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Pop Mart’s expansion into new product categories has been effective, as verified in its foreign store ramp-up in Southeast Asia： ·Revenue potential: we expect the well-paced launches of flagship products will drive up per-store yoy growth in the Chinese market; and with the rapid store ramp-up in Southeast Asia and other foreign markets, high average per-store sales could contribute to profit elasticity. ·Profit potential: with scale economies dialing down costs, we expect the expanding proportion of foreign stores will widen gross margins. ·Forecast: we raise our forecast to revenue of RMB9.44bn/12.53bn in 2024/25E (previously RMB8.18bn/10.27bn), up 49.8/32.7%; with adjusted non-IFRS net profit at RMB2.10bn/2.75bn (previously RMB1.63bn/2.10bn), up 76.6/30.7%. ·Upshot: the expansion of IP monetization channels will likely contribute incremental profits over the long term. We are bullish about Pop Mart’s IP operations and monetization potential for the long term and maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：门店扩张不及预期；IP运营效果不及预期；原材料成本上行；业绩预测或与实际值存在差异，请以公司公告爲准。 Risks include: lower-than-expected store expansion; worse-than-expected IP monetization; and rising raw material costs. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and subject to the release of the company’s actual financial results. 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