周大福: 一口價表現靚麗,改善毛利率

（以下内容从天风国际证券《周大福: 一口價表現靚麗,改善毛利率》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (1929 HK) 一口价表现靓丽，改善毛利率 FYQ1E retail sales down while fixed-price gold products did well; we expect gross margin will improve BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布FY25Q1经营表现。FY25Q1（24/4/1-24/6/30）公司零售额同减20%；定价黄金产品於中国内地的零售值按年増长超过100%；季内，定价黄金产品的零售值占比大幅增加至近16%，同增10pct。 FYQ1E retail sales down 20% yoy; mainland fixed-price gold products up >100% Key metrics: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (CTF) saw retail sales decline 20% yoy in FY25Q1E (April-June 2024). Interestingly, fixed-price gold products retail value in the mainland grew more than 100% yoy in the quarter, they accounted for nearly 16% of total retail value on a substantial increase of 10ppt yoy. More granular data in the quarter: 分地区看，中国内地零售额同减18.6%（占总88%）；港澳及其他同减28.8%（占总12%）； Market regions: ·Mainland of China: retail sales shrank 18.6% yoy (88% of total retail); ·Hong Kong, Macau and other markets: down 28.8% yoy (12% of total retail). 分产品看（内地），黄金类占比76.9%，镶嵌类占比18.1%，均同比持平； Product segments (mainland): ·Gold products comprised 76.9% of retail sales on flat growth yoy; ·Inlaid jewelry products accounted for 18.1%, with flat growth yoy. 分渠道看（内地），线下加盟同减16.3%，表现好於直营；加盟占比71%,同增3.3pct；电商零售值占比5.8%，销量占比13.8%； Sales channels (mainland): ·Physical store sales: franchised channel fell 16.3% yoy, but bettered direct sales; ·Franchised sales accounted for 71% of the total, expanding 3.3% yoy; ·Ecommerce accounted for 5.8% of mainland retail sales value and 13.8% of retail sales volume. 优化零售网络管理，追求远期正面效果 在零售网络管理方面，公司专注於通过提升店铺生产力和盈利能力，优化门店组合的整体财务健康状况，以保持公司的市场领导地位。24/4/1-24/6/30，公司优化了零售网络，在内地净关闭91个珠宝零售点。截至24年6月30日，公司零售点共计7659家，环减95家。 Retail business: tweaking store network toward long-term business benefits Store footprint: CTF sought to enhance its total financial health by retuning the retail store network, as well as raising productivity and profitability. The other goal is to entrench its market leadership. The company effected net closures of 91 jewelry outlets on the mainland in FY25Q1, which brings its retail store count to 7,659 outlets as of 30 June 2024, 95 fewer than in the previous quarter. 公司内地的所有店铺当中，超过一半是过去2至4年开设的，随着这些店铺日趋成熟及持续优化零售网络计划的推进，我们认爲将有助於扩大营业额增长、提升营运效益及增强公司的盈利能力。 New stores dominate: more than half of CTF’s stores on the Chinese mainland have opened in the past 2-4 years. We believe revenue growth will improve as the newer stores mature and the company fleshes out plans to optimize its retail network, and enhances operational efficiency and total profitability. 同店销售承压，黄金类产品平均售价稳定增长 同店看，内地/港澳销量分别同比-37%/-36%；销售额分别同比-26%/-31%，其中镶嵌类销售额分别同比-32%/-31%，黄金类销售额分别同比-28%/-33%。其中，内地直营/加盟同店销售额分别同比-26%/-19%； SSS growth under macro pressure; gold product ASPs rose steadily SSS (same-store sales) metrics in the mainland of China / Hong Kong and Macau markets were as follows in FYQ1: ·SSS volume declined 37%/36% yoy ·SSS revenue fell 26%/31% yoy ·Inlaid jewelry SSS shrank 32%/31% yoy ·Gold products SSS declined 28%/33% yoy. Meanwhile, mainland of China direct operations/franchised stores’ SSS fell 26%/19% yoy. 黄金首饰及产品的内地均价同比+800港币，增至6200港币；港澳均价同比+500港币，增至8900港币； ASPs (average selling prices) mostly trended upward in the Chinese markets: Gold products: ·Mainland: ASP increased by HKD800 yoy to HKD6,200; ·HK and Macau: ASP rose by HKD500 yoy to HKD8,900. 珠宝镶嵌类首饰内地均价同比+800港币，增至8600港币；港澳均价同比-300港币，减至16400港币。 Inlaid jewelry: ·Mainland: ASP increased by HKD800 yoy to HKD8,600; ·HK and Macau: ASP fell by HKD300 yoy to HKD16,400. 我们看好公司毛利率持续改善：①毛利率较高的一口价黄金产品销额增多，结构改善提升毛利率；②金价高企，公司出售黄金存货获利。 Outlook: we believe CTF’s gross margin will continue to improve due to: ·Higher sales value would result from growth in higher-gross-margin fixed-price gold products, driving a product structure shift that boosts total gross margin; ·Rising gold prices boost sales of inventory gold products. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 周大福专注执行优化定价策略，将黄金产品组合从按重量计价转向定价产品，舒缓行业均面对的业务挑战。此外，一口价黄金产品销额占比快速提升，抵消因金价上涨而导致的近期黄金需求放缓所带来的部分影响，同时印证公司专注迈向更高价值增长及盈利质量的成效。 考虑到公司FY25Q1经营表现，我们预计FY25-27收入分别爲1136亿港币、1214亿港币、1303亿港币；归母净利润分别爲69亿港币、76 亿港币、85亿港币；EPS分别爲0.69港币、0.76港币、0.85港币；对应PE分别爲11、10、9X。 Valuation and risks Seeking to relieve macro challenges, CTF focused on optimizing its fixed-pricing strategy in FYQ1 with a shift in the gold product sales mix toward fixed-price products rather than sales by weight. Hence, its fixed-price gold products expanded in sales proportion to partially offset slowing gold demand on rising gold prices. This also aligned with the company’s shift to higher-quality growth and profit profiles. Taking FY25Q1E operating performance data into consideration, we have adjusted our revenue forecast to HKD113.6bn/ 121.4bn/130.3bn in FY25/26/27E; with net profit at HKD6.9bn/7.6bn/8.5bn, implying EPS of HKD0.69/0.76/0.85 and corresponding to our PE of 11x/10x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：金价高位震荡风险；行业竞争加剧风险；拓店不及预期风险；新店销售不及预期风险等。 Risks include: gold price volatility; intensifying competition; a slower-than-expected store opening pace; and weaker-than-expected new store sales. 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