阿里巴巴-SW: FY25Q1業績前瞻: GMV及貨幣化率有望提升,股權回購持續

（以下内容从天风国际证券《阿里巴巴-SW: FY25Q1業績前瞻: GMV及貨幣化率有望提升,股權回購持續》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) FY25Q1业绩前瞻：GMV及货币化率有望提升，股权回购持续 FY25Q1E preview: higher GMV and monetization rates and Alibaba bought back more shares BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 业绩前瞻：我们预计FY25Q1阿里巴巴收入爲2488亿元，yoy增长6.2%；预计公司经调整EBITA 405亿元， yoy-10.8%，EBITA Margin 16.3%；预计Non-GAAP净利润421亿元，yoy-6%。 FY25Q1E preview: we estimate adjusted EBITA declined 10.8% yoy to RMB40.5bn Our preview of Alibaba’s performance in FY25Q1E (the fiscal quarter ended June 2024) estimates revenue arrived at RMB248.8bn, up 6.2% yoy, and adjusted EBITA at RMB40.5bn, down 10.8% yoy, with an EBITA margin of 16.3%; and non-GAAP net profit at RMB42.1bn, down 6% yoy. 淘天集团：全站推广上线， GMV及货币化率有望提升。我们预计FY25Q1淘天集团收入yoy+2.8%。CY24Q2整体居民零售消费保持恢复，4月/5月/6月社会消费品零售总额同比变动爲2.3%/3.7%/2.0%；4月/5月/6月线上实物商品零售总额同比变动-0.3%/0.3%/-10.0%。618大促成绩良好，365个品牌在天猫618成交破亿，超36000个品牌成交翻倍；淘宝百亿补贴成交金额同比增长550%；190万淘宝中小商家成交额同比增长超过100%。4月16日阿里妈妈发布全站推广，打通付费和自然流量之间的双向通道，我们认爲全站推广有望成爲淘系增长新飞轮的关键引擎，帮助各类型商家激发新的增长势能，并有望带动整体GMV增长以及货币化率提升。 Taobao and Tmall: site-wide promotions; GMV and monetization likely grew We expect Taobao and Tmall’s combined revenue increased 2.8% yoy in FY25Q1E The consumer retail market continued to recover: ·Consumer retail sales changed 2.3%/3.7%/2.0% yoy in April/May/June. ·Physical goods’ online retail sales changed -0.3%/+0.3%/-10.0% yoy in April/May/ June. The 618 shopping festival in June performed well: ·365 brands drew over-RMB100m sales at the Tmall 618 promotions ·Over 36,000 brands doubled their sales. ·Taobao’s RMB10bn subsidy sales grew 550% yoy. ·1.9m SME merchants on Taobao grew their transaction volumes by over 100% yoy. Site-wide promotions: Alibaba subsidiary Alimama launched site-wide promotions, which integrate the paid and organic user traffic channels. We believe site-wide promotions as Taobao’s flywheel to churn new growth momentum for all types of merchants and we estimate higher GMV and monetization rates overall. 云：大模型降价，AI应用在多领域落地。我们预计FY25Q1云业务收入yoy+4.8%。5月21日，阿里云宣布旗下9款通义商业化及开源系列模型大幅降价。通义千问GPT-4级主力模型Qwen-Long API输入价格从0.02元/千tokens降至0.0005元/千tokens。截至5月底通义大模型通过阿里云服务企业超过9万、通过钉钉服务企业超过220万，在汽车、航空、矿业、教育、医疗、餐饮、遊戏、文旅等领域落地应用。 Cloud: LLM fee discounts; AI applications implemented across multiple markets We expect the cloud business will post revenue growth of 4.8% yoy in FY25Q1E Alibaba Cloud announced deep price cuts on 21 May for nine of its Tongyi Qianwen (Qwen) commercial and open-source LLMs. The API input fees for the Qwen GPT-4 main model Qwen-Long dropped from RMB0.02 to RMB0.0005 per thousand tokens. Qwen LLMs have served over 90,000 companies on Alibaba Cloud and over 2.2m enterprises on DingTalk. The application markets span automobiles, aviation, mining, education, medical care, catering, games, culture and tourism. Global ecommerce: AliExpress-Magalu tie-up; monetization rates likely increased We expect international business revenue would have risen 34.7% yoy in FY25Q1E ·Alibaba injected USD230m into Lazada on 20 May and we believe the investment will enhance Lazada’s competitiveness in the Southeast Asian ecommerce market. ·AliExpress established cooperation with Brazilian retailer Magalu on 25 June, which substantially expanded product offerings on both platforms. With Alibaba charging commissions for AliExpress products sold on Magalu, we believe the collaboration would have raised the company’s global ecommerce monetization rates. 其他业务：我们预计FY25Q1本地生活收入yoy+11.1%，；预计菜鸟收入yoy+28.1%，预计DME收入yoy-5.0%。 Other businesses: ·Local services: we expect revenue would have increased 11.1% yoy in FY25Q1E. ·Cainiao: we expect revenue would have risen 28.1% yoy. ·DME: we expect revenue would have declined 5.0% yoy. 股权回购持续，或於24年8月完成双重上市转换。截至2024年6月30日的季度内，阿里巴巴共回购6.13亿普通股，总金额爲58亿美元。股票回购计划中剩余的董事会授权金额爲261亿美元，有效期至2027年3月。此外，公司於FY24Q4财报中披露自愿转换爲香港联交所双重主要上市的进展，表示正在爲香港主要上市做准备，预计於2024年8月底完成转换 More share buybacks; primary HK listing could be finalized by end-August ·Alibaba bought back 613m common shares in total for USD5.8bn in the quarter ending June 2024. This leaves USD26.1bn remaining that is authorized by the board under the stock repurchase plan valid until March 2027. ·The company revealed progress of its voluntary conversion to dual primary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange in its FY24Q4 financial report. It said it was preparing to upgrade to a primary HK listing and expects to complete the conversion by the end of August 2024. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：2023年以来，阿里巴巴持续进行组织架构变革，人员、战略持续进行调整，部分缓解了外部激烈的市场竞争带来的压力。监於公司强调将持续增加投资以增强竞争力，我们预计阿里巴巴FY 2025-2027年收入爲10249/11236/12193亿元（前值爲10196/11100/12123亿元），同比增长9%/10%/9%；我们预测FY2025-2027年Non-GAAP净利润爲1565/1622/1647亿元（1558/1604/1638亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Alibaba has been making organizational structure changes since 2023, while tweaking its personnel team and strategic plans. Its efforts have alleviated pressures from intense market competition. Given its emphasis on increasing investments to raise competitiveness, we forecast Alibaba will generate revenue of RMB1.03tr/1.12tr/1.22tr in FY25/26/27E (upgraded from RMB1.02tr/1.11tr/1.21tr previously), up 9/10/9%; with non-GAAP net profit at RMB156.5bn/162.2bn/164.7bn (previously RMB155.8bn/160.4bn/ 163.8bn) in FY25/26/27E. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济下行、疫情反覆，消费疲软；政策监管风险；电商行业竞争加剧；新业务发展不及预期 Risks include: a macroeconomic downturn; pandemic resurgence; weak consumption; policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; and slower-than-expected growth at the new businesses. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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