裕元集團: 6月製造繼續恢復,期待半年盈利表現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《裕元集團: 6月製造繼續恢復,期待半年盈利表現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (0551 HK) 6月制造继续恢复，期待半年盈利表现 June operating data: with manufacturing business recovery, we anticipate a profitable H1E BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司披露6月运营数据 集团单月营收6.5亿美元，同比-4.3%；累计营收40亿美元，同比-3.4%；其中制造业务营收单月同比2.9%，累计同比2.4%；宝胜单月营收同比-14%，累计同比-8.9%； Update: H1 total revenue and Pou Sheng decline; manufacturing grew 2.4% yoy Early H1 data: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) released operating data for June 2024 with revenue at USD650m, down 4.3% yoy. This brought cumulative revenue to USD4bn in the year to date, down 3.4% yoy. The manufacturing business generated revenue growth of 2.9% yoy in June and 2.4% yoy in 24H1; while revenue contributed by Pou Sheng fell 14% yoy in June and declined 8.9% yoy in H1. 集团对制造业务前景保持乐观，随着产业逐步复甦以及订单愈趋常态化，我们预计有望推动营收持续增长、提高生产效率及稳健盈利能力。 Outlook: YY is sanguine about its manufacturing business prospects. We believe a continuing industry recovery will regularize orders and sustain revenue growth, which would improve productivity and bring strong and stable profitability. 集团将积极监测情势发展，灵活配置其产能，以平衡需求、订单排程及劳动力供应，推动综观全局的人力与产能提升计划。集团将会继续增强其经营韧性，打造高度敏捷而灵活的营运模式以提升产效，同时善用其核心强项、调节能力和竞争优势，辅以成本与费用管控以稳固其盈利能力，亦将专注於维持现金流的健康度以至财务状况的稳健度。 继续致力於其中长期产能布局策略，包括瞄准劳动力供应及基础设施能支持永续增长的印度尼西亚及印度，爲其制造产能进行多元化配置。集团亦将继续秉持以价值增长爲优先之策略，善用运动休闲潮流以及自身结合自动化科技及研发实力的整合型产品开发实践能力，寻求更多高附加价值订单，巩固产品组合。 Flexible production model: balancing orders, capacities and manpower Nimble deployment: YY is building a nimble operational model that it believes will enhance productivity and operational resilience. In monitoring business conditions, it would flexibly deploy production capacities to demand requirements, which optimizes manpower and manufacturing capacities, along with order scheduling and labor supply. The setup enables the company to capitalize on core strengths, business capabilities and competitive advantages. In addition, cost and expense control would boost profitability and maintain YY’s focus on healthy cash flows and sound financial health. Production diversity: YY’s medium to long-term strategy for a diverse capacity network includes production facilities in Indonesia and India, whose labor supply and infrastructure could sustain growth. Higher-value products: the company’s growth strategy for value-added products targets the rising athleisure market. YY’s integrated product development process capability, which involves the use of R&D-led automation and technology that attract orders for higher-value products to upgrade its product matrix. 继一系列智能自动化的精准投资，公司将会继续推行其长期数位转型策略，以透过数位化精益管理实现卓越营运。其将会进一步将制造管理系统整合於OCP中，以强化现行的生态智能及智能制造策略。作爲其OCP的核心，SAP ERP系统更聚焦应用以及自动化升级，将强化集团的流程再造能力，提高生产效率并创造投资回报。 上述举措作爲有力的管理工具，有助继续提升裕元具竞争优势的调节能力，以配合快速转变的市场及营运环境，包括品牌客户愈趋灵活多变的需求、更有效率的生产交期、订单准交能力、端对端能力之持续趋势，以及重中之重的ESG导向管理能力。 OCP intelligentization: one smart platform to manage all production resources YY made a string of targeted intelligentization and automation investments to drive operational excellence through digitally lean management under a long-term digital transformation strategy. It wants to integrate manufacturing management systems into One Common Platform (OCP) to expedite its current eco-intelligence and smart manufacturing strategy. As YY’s systems applications and products for enterprise resource planning system is at the heart of OCP, the increased automation and applications focus will enhance the company’s process re-engineering capabilities. This would raise productivity and help generate return on investments. These initiatives provide powerful management tools that raise YY’s competitiveness in line with a rapidly changing market and operating environment, including the flexibility to meet increasingly varied and volatile demand requirements from branded customers, more efficient production lead times, just-in-time order fulfillments, end-to-end capabilities, and, most importantly, the skill to manage current environmental, social and governance factors that affect the market. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 裕元爲全球最大运动、运动休闲、休闲鞋及户外鞋制造商，拥有多元化品牌客户组合及生产基地；与Nike、adidas、Asics、New Balance、Salomon等国际品牌拥有长期合作关系。基於24Q1业绩表现及Q2制造业务增长且环比显著改善，我们上调盈利预测。我们预计公司FY24-26年收入分别爲86.45亿美元、96.45亿美元、109.35 亿美元；归母净利分别爲3.8亿美元、4.2亿美元、4.6亿美元（原值分别爲3.0亿美元、3.5亿美元、4.0亿美元）；EPS分别爲0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股（原值分别爲0.18美元/股、0.22美元/股、0.25 美元/股）；PE分别爲7x、6x、5x。 Valuation and risks Yue Yuen is the world’s largest footwear manufacturer for the sports, athleisure, casual wear and outdoor wear markets. Along with a diverse production network, it has a diverse brand customer portfolio, which includes long ties with international brand leaders like Nike, adidas, Asics, New Balance and Salomon. We raise our forecast to reflect Q1 performance and respectable qoq growth data in the manufacturing business for Q2. We now expect revenue will arrive at USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn in 2024/25/26E, net profit at USD380m/420m/460m (previously USD300m/350m/400m), implying EPS of USD0.24/0.26/0.29 (previously USD0.18/0.22/0.25) and 7x/6x/5x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：市场竞争环境加剧风险；法律合规及企业管治风险；资讯科技及数据安全风险；品牌客户集中度风险；经济及社会环境风险。 Risks include: intensifying competition; legal compliance and corporate governance risks; infotech and data security risks; brand customer concentration risks; and economic and social environment risks. 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