京東集團-SW: 24Q2業績前瞻:收入增長或短期承壓,利潤有望向好發展

（以下内容从天风国际证券《京東集團-SW: 24Q2業績前瞻:收入增長或短期承壓,利潤有望向好發展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　JD.com (9618 HK) 24Q2业绩前瞻：收入增长或短期承压，利润有望向好发展 24Q2E results preview: revenue growth under short-term pressure but we expect profit would have pulled up BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 宏观经济稳步恢复，24Q2预计收入同比微幅提升 从宏观环境来看，24H1消费品零售呈现稳步恢复态势，恢复至19年同期的121%。根据国家统计局数据，2024年1—6月份，社会消费品零售总额235969亿元，同比增长3.7%，较24Q1的4.7%回落1pct，消费整体表现偏弱；从线上消费来看，全国网上零售额70991亿元，同比增长9.8%；实物商品网上零售额同比增长8.8%，高於整体社零总额增速。 分品类来看，家用电器和音像器材类/通讯器材类/日用品类分别累计实现行业零售额4487/ 3692/ 3923亿元，同比3.1% / 11.3% / 2.3%。根据国家统计局数据，2024年1—6月份，全国房地产开发投资52529亿元，同比下降10.1%（按可比口径计算），整体来看行业正处於筑底修复阶段，近期从中央到地方刺激政策密集的出台，一定程度上提振了市场信心。我们预计，京东集团24Q2收入同比上升0.5%至2893亿元，收入增长短期承压，主要系1）整体来看，终端消费整体表现偏弱，地产市场处於底部盘整阶段；2）分品类来看，京东3C家电等核心品类受去年高基数影响增长放缓，日百品类在3P生态的繁榮下进入良性增长通道；我们认爲，凭藉公司较强的供应链能力及内部效率优化，未来随着宏观经济向好，居民消费需求或逐步释放，驱动公司业绩向好。 Recovering China macroeconomy and policy boost aided Q2E demand and sales We present a preview of JD.com’s 24Q2E earnings, which builds upon a macroeconomic upturn in China that spurred incremental consumer demand growth and likely propelled profits for the company, while it optimized supply chain strengths and internal efficiencies. Consumer retail recovery: amid generally weak consumption in the Chinese market, consumer goods retail sales recovered gradually to RMB23.6tr in 24H1, based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, representing 3.7% growth yoy and 121% growth vs 19H1, although dipping 1ppt from 4.7% in 24Q1. NBS data also indicated the following granular perspectives of the Chinese retail market in H1: ·Online sales: RMB7.1tr, up 9.8% yoy; with online physical goods rising 8.8% yoy, outperforming total consumer sales. ·Total household & AV equipment: RMB448.7bn, up 3.1% yoy. ·Total communications equipment: RMB369.2bn, up 11.3% yoy. ·Total daily necessities: RMB392.3bn, up 2.3% yoy. Real estate drag: we juxtapose the above consumer retail sales against Chinese real estate development investments, which NBS puts at RMB5.25tr in H1, down 10.1% yoy (on a comparable basis). Our take: we reckon that the Chinese market on the whole has bottomed out and entered a recovery phase. The recent intensive rollout of stimulus policies spanning central to local levels appears to have boosted market confidence. POP生态建设下产品结构优化，24Q2预计净利润同比提升 从公司业务来看，公司自营业务壁垒深厚，POP生态建设稳步推进，用户的消费体验提升有望与刺激消费需求形成良性发展的正循环。2023年年初，京东通过推出“春晓计划”吸引大量新商家加入。截至6月18日，2024年京东618成交额、订单量齐创新高，京东直播订单量同比增长超200%。公司在618期间实现累计成交额过10亿的品牌83个，完成超15万个中小商家销售增长超50%的目标。同时，百亿补贴持续爲消费者提供了丰富的低价大牌选择，在线商品数同比增长超100%，百亿补贴用户数、订单量同比增长均超150%。我们认爲随着中国消费市场的稳步复甦，平台的低价供给丰富度的提升或爲後续下沉市场的攻坚及老用户的激活打下基础。分品类来看，带电品类受高基数影响收入增长短期承压，“以旧换新”有望拉动消费需求新一轮增长。受去年高温天气前置影响，2023年4-6月份京东平台空调销售额爲159亿以上，环比增长118%。高基数影响下，带电品类收入增长短期承压。618期间，京东联合20多个省市级政府给予消费者补贴加码，北京、河北、湖北、西安、深圳、广州、海南7个省市家电家居以旧换新成交额同比增长超100%。商超品类有望延续一季度高增速，实现双位数增长。京东618服饰、美妆、运动等品类新品数量同比增长超380%，丰富的供给与价格优势，拉动品牌、品类快速增长。我们预计，24Q2公司non-GAAP归母净利润达107.9亿元，同比提升12.1%，non-GAAP归母净利润率同比小幅提升，主要系平台开放生态繁榮下产品结构优化，3P及日百高毛利率品类占比不断提升。 JD.com: Q2E revenue growth yoy despite weak macros; POP pulled up net profit Revenue: we expect JD.com would have increased revenue by 0.5% yoy to RMB289.3bn in 24Q2E as it navigated short-term pressures: ·Macro: end-market consumption weakness amid a bottoming real estate market; ·Segmental: JD.com’s core categories of 3C and home appliances had slower growth due to high bases in 23Q2, while daily necessities benefited from a healthy growth cycle and channels on a flourishing 3P ecosystem. POP-led net profit: we believe JD’s direct sales market barriers and steady buildup of its POP merchant ecosystem, alongside consumer user experience enhancements, would have helped stimulate demand and driven a profit growth cycle in Q2E. 618 hit new highs: JD.com’s Spring Dawn initiative, launched at the beginning of 2023, attracted many new merchants. Its 618 shopping promotional event in 2024 hit new highs in turnover and order volumes as of 18 June: ·Livestream order volumes expanded more than 200% yoy. ·83 brands generated cumulative transaction volume of over RMB1bn. ·JD met its goal of over 50% sales growth for more than 150,000 SME merchants. ·The RMB10bn subsidy initiative, which is a selection of big-brand products at low prices, increased this year’s online products by more than 100% yoy, and user numbers and order volumes increased more than 150% yoy. 618 users, products and markets: ·User profile: we believe that with the steady recovery of China’s consumer market, the platform’s increasingly abundant low-price supplies could set the ground to acquire new users from lower-tier city markets as well as bring back old ones. ·Electrical products were under short-term revenue pressure on a high base, although we expect trade-in subsidies will drive a consumer demand growth uptrend. High temperatures sent air conditioner sales soaring past RMB15.9bn in 23Q2, up 118% qoq. Last year’s high base placed electrical product revenue growth under short-term pressure. ·JD.com joined hands with more than 20 provincial and municipal governments to provide consumers with additional subsidies. Home appliance and home furnishing trade-in transaction volumes increased more than 100% yoy across seven provinces and cities: Beijing, Hebei, Hubei, Xi’an, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hainan. ·Supermarkets: we believe supermarkets maintained their Q1 double-digit growth rate in Q2E as well. ·New products in the apparel, beauty and sports categories increased more than 380% yoy during 618, as abundant supply and attractive prices drove rapid growth in brands and product categories. Q2E net profit: we expect JD’s non-GAAP net profit would have reached RMB10.79bn in 24Q2E, up 12.1% yoy, while non-GAAP net margin would have increased slightly yoy on product structure optimization, driven by the platform’s flourishing open ecosystem and the rise of high-gross-margin categories such as 3P and daily necessities. 24Q2累计回购约2亿美元，回购计划有序推进 根据公司新股份回购计划（有效期至2027年3月18日），截至2024年5月15日，公司已回购合计约7亿美元，剩余金额爲23亿美元。我们认爲，随着回购计划的有序推进，公司或迎来估值的重估。 Share buybacks well paced with USD200m of cumulative repurchases in Q2E Under the company’s new share repurchase program (effective until 18 March 2027), JD has bought back about USD700m of shares in total as of 15 May 2024, with USD2.3bn remaining. As the repurchase plan continues to be steadily implemented, we believe JD’s shares could see a revaluation. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：短期公司业务调整影响减退，POP商家生态建设稳步推进，核心品类的居民消费需求有望逐步释放，我们预计京东2024-2026年收入爲11,527/ 12,567/13,187亿元（前值分别爲11,775 /13,189 /14,599亿元），同比增长6.3% / 9.0% / 4.9%；调整2024-2026年归属股东净利润（Non-GAAP）分别爲373/427/446亿元（前值分别爲339 /365 /379亿元）。长期来看，1P和3P全盘统筹与公司推进的低价心智策略协同，我们长期持续看好公司供应链和物流核心能力的发展潜力，叠加下沉策略不断推进获客，同时AI大模型的应用有望持续降本增效。 Valuation and risks With JD absorbing its short-term business adjustments and advancing its POP merchant ecosystem buildup, we expect to see the gradual release of consumer demand in its core business categories. We reduce our forecast to revenue of RMB1.15tr/1.26tr/1.32tr in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.18tr/1.32tr/1.5tr), up 6.3/9.0/4.9% yoy; and non-GAAP adjusted net profit of RMB37.3bn/42.7bn/44.6bn (previously RMB33.9bn/36.5bn/37.9bn). For the long term, we expect JD will synergize competitive pricing and lower-tier-city penetration strategies for both 1P and 3P businesses to boost customer acquisitions. We remain bullish about long-term growth prospects for its core supply chain and logistics businesses. At the same time, we expect AI large language model applications will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiencies. 风险提示：政策监管风险；电商行业竞争加剧；组织架构调整进度不及预期；海外上市监管政策风险；业绩预测或与实际值存在差异，请以公司公告爲准。 Risks include: policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; structural organizational adjustments progressing slower than expected; and policy regulatory risks related to JD’s US listing. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and subject to the release of the company’s actual financial results. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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