華利集團: 印尼工廠投產,Q2行業訂單整體恢復

（以下内容从天风国际证券《華利集團: 印尼工廠投產,Q2行業訂單整體恢復》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Huali Industrial Group (300979 CH) 印尼工厂投产，Q2行业订单整体恢复 Indonesia factory commenced production and industry orders recovered in Q2 BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 印尼工厂投产，保持积极产能扩张，招工顺利 2024H1投产的印尼新工厂已开始出货,目前印尼工厂运营管控指标尚未出台；待印尼运营一段时间後，将会对同一型体的鞋款在越南和印尼生产进行比较，看看差距是否过大，探讨改善方案。 考虑到市场需求，未来几年公司仍会保持积极的产能扩张。未来3-5年公司将在印尼及越南新建数个工厂。公司产能除通过新建工厂、设备更新提升产能外，还可通过员工人数和加班时间的控制保持弹性，每年具体产能配置将根据当年订单情况进行调整。 2023年由於客户去库存，订单有一定减少，公司对员工招聘有控制。23Q4，根据新工厂（越南工厂、印尼工厂）投产安排和订单恢复情况，已经在开始新招员工，2024年，随着新工厂的逐渐投产，集团员工招聘力度会加强。 Indonesia factory started production; smooth capacity expansion and recruitment Indonesia facility: shipments started at Huali Industrial’s new Indonesia plant after it commenced operations in 24H1, although operating control indicators are not yet available. After operating in Indonesia for a period of time, the company would compare the shoes produced against the same shoe model from the Vietnam factory to check for differences and would draw up improvement plans accordingly. Capacity ramp-up: to expand production capacity to fulfill market demand, Huali plans to build several new factories in Indonesia and Vietnam over the next 3-5 years. In addition to equipment upgrades, it would ensure operational flexibility by managing employee numbers and overtime hours. The specific production capacity configuration for each year is based on order dynamics. Staffing: the company curbed recruitment in 2023 because of an order decline due to customer destocking. Currently, production schedules at both new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia indicate an order book recovery, so they have started recruiting. Huali will increase hiring as the factories roll out production in 2024E. 6月全球制鞋营收延续成长，24Q2增速环比23Q1有所改善 丰泰6月收入同增1%，（5月同增17%，4月同增4%，3月同增11%， 2月同增-8%，1月同增16%，23全年累计-11%）；裕元（制造）6月同增3%，（5月同增8%，4月同增3%，3月同增0.2%，2月-12%，1月+13%，23全年累计-18%）。 进入24Q2我们认爲，品牌与织造表现分化，品牌内需敞口较大，成长及预期有所拖累；织造受益出海/份额变化/去库节奏等整体环比改善，表现或相对较优。 从华利已经发布的24Q1财务报表来看，公司订单已经从客户去库存的周期中恢复；24Q2没有发生影响订单情况的负面因素。集团各工厂的产能排产比较紧张，员工加班时间也会高於去年，工厂产能利用率比去年要高。 Global shoe producers increased revenues in June and Q2 improved qoq Major customers: ·Feng Tay: revenue increased 1% yoy in June (vs +17% in May, +4% in April, +11% in March, -8% in Feb, +16% in Jan; and -11% in 2023). ·Yue Yuen: manufacturing revenue rose 3% yoy in June (+8% in May, +3% in April, +0.2% in March, -12% in Feb, +13% in Jan; and -18% in 2023). Brand and fabric differentiation: we believe production differentiation in terms of brands and woven textiles emerged in Q2. Brands with large exposure to Chinese demand saw growth dampen amid lower expectations. Woven textiles performed better and grew qoq due to foreign market expansion, market share changes and post- destocking cycle. Huali’s Q1 financial report indicates orders recovered after the customer destocking cycle. Orders in the following quarter in 24Q2 had no negative factors. Production capacity scheduling was tight at the company’s factories with higher employee overtime hours yoy, as well as higher factory capacity utilization rates yoy. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持买入评级 公司目前是行业内比较优质的制造商，行业口碑好，吸引客户主动找公司合作。由於公司工厂规模比较大，承接客户时会考虑订单规模、未来的持续增长、双方团队的理念契合度等多方面因素。公司的客户策略是优质多客户策略，不会特别限制合作的品牌数量。我们预计公司24-26年归母净利分别爲38.9/44.3/49.5亿元，EPS分别爲3.3/3.8/4.2元/股，对应PE分别爲18/16/14X。 Valuation and risks Huali’s reputation as a quality manufacturer has potential customers taking the initiative to collaborate with it. In view of its large production scale, the company considers several criteria before adding new customers, such as order size, potential sustainable growth and how compatible is their business DNA. Huali’s customer strategy centers on quality and multiple customers, without unduly limiting the number of brands it will cooperate with. We forecast net profit of RMB3.89bn/4.43bn/ 4.95bn in 2024/25/26E, with RMB3.3/3.8/4.2 EPS and 18x/16x/14x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；原材料与人工成本波动上升；产能拓展不及预期；汇率波动风险等。 Risks include: lower-than-expected downstream market demand; volatile and rising raw material and labor costs; lower-than-expected production capacity expansion; and FX fluctuations. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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