周大生: 24H1淨開店124家維持積極態勢,處估值低位、關注Q3銷售改善可能

（以下内容从天风国际证券《周大生: 24H1淨開店124家維持積極態勢,處估值低位、關注Q3銷售改善可能》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Chow Tai Seng Jewellery (002867 CH) 24H1净开店124家维持积极态势，处估值低位、关注Q3销售改善可能 124 net stores added in 24H1; attractive valuation in view of potential uptrend; sales set to improve from Q3E BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布公告，2024年上半年净增门店数量124家（2023年上半年净增门店数量119家）。截至2024年6月30日，公司门店总数爲5230家，其中自营店343家，加盟店4887家。 CTS net added 124 stores in H1; gold, silver and other jewelry set to grow in Q3E Store network: Chow Tai Seng (CTS) announced its physical market footprint expanded by a net increase of 124 stores in 24H1 (vs 119 in 23H1). It has a total network of 5,230 stores as of 30 June 2024, comprising 343 directly-operated and 4,887 franchised stores. 近况更新： 受前期金价急涨影响，周大生以金饰爲主，我们预计Q2业绩承压但6月较5月有好转、後续有望逐步企稳。6月社零数据出炉，金银珠宝品类同比yoy-3.7%（5月yoy-11%），我们认爲如果7-8月能转正将成爲明显正催化，拉长时间看，消费需求逐步从纯消耗型消费品向带保值属性的消费品转移、黄金珠宝持续性需求相对有韧性。 Jewelry upswing: past gold price hikes had prompted CTS to sharpen its focus on gold jewelry and we reckon Q2E came under pressure. However, with June performance improving over May, we expect the business would stabilize from here. Its gold, silver and jewelry segment saw consumer retail sales fall 3.7% yoy in June (moderating from a 11% yoy decline in May), according to data released by CTS. Thereafter, we believe the business will trend upward in July and August to provide a clear growth catalyst. We anticipate consumer demand motive will shift from consumables toward value preservation consumer goods. This sustainable demand trend in gold jewelry would boost the company’s market resilience. 竞争优势： 周大生品牌整体较爲年轻化，符合新时代消费者定位；早年依托三四线城市的渠道先发优势，率先抢占了下沉市场红利，处於渠道规模第一梯队；同时在2021年快速调整产品策略，发力黄金，并配合深度营销、高效营运，迅速提升黄金产品市场份额。 从中长期来看，品牌势能的驱动依靠渠道规模和品牌精细化运营能力，且品牌的精细化管理反哺渠道规模的增长。公司近两年除了在渠道端发力以外，同时在融合发展新模式、高效运营、深度营销、配货模型和数字赋能等方面贯彻落实，持续助力品牌发展。自2011年起，公司连续13年获得世界品牌实验室（World Brand Lab）“中国500最具价值品牌”，品牌价值从2018年的376.85亿元上升到2023年的867.72亿元，位居内地珠宝品牌第一，中国轻工业第二，已成爲中国境内珠宝首饰市场最具竞争力的品牌之一。 Competitive edge: lower-tier market advantage; integrated brand operation model New consumption positioning: the Chow Tai Seng brand generally attracts a younger buyer profile, which is in line with its positioning in the new consumption market. Its first-mover buildout in the early years throughout China’s third and fourth-tier cities now provides a prime vantage for lower-tier market growth in light of its large channel scale. Amid pandemic-related market uncertainties in 2021, CTS was able to quickly adjust its product strategy to focus on gold, where strong marketing tie-ups and efficient operations helped the company rapidly expand market share in gold products. Outlook: we expect the CTS brand momentum will be shaped by channel scale and tight brand operations in the medium to long term, with close brand management driving up channel scale. To build brand, the company has been implementing a new integrated development model for efficient operations, extensive marketing, distribution and digitalization over the past two years. CTS has been listed among China’s 500 Most Valuable Brands by the World Brand Lab for 13 straight years since 2011. Its brand value has grown from RMB37.69bn in 2018 to RMB86.77bn in 2023, the highest among mainland jewelry brands and second highest in China’s light industry. CTS has become one of the most competitive brands in the Chinese jewelry market. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与投资建议： 公司黄金产品仍有提升空间，且省代模式调整成果显现後将有望推动公司持续开店扩张，估值回落股息率高、关注销售改善。我们预计24/25/26年公司归母净利润14/16/17.7亿（预测前值爲15.5/17.8/20.6亿，考虑消费环境略下调），对应10X/9X/8XPE，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We believe the company’s gold jewelry business has the potential to grow further. And after adjustments to its provincial agent model are realized, we expect store expansion to escalate. Alongside lower valuations and an attractive dividend yield, we would watch for sales improvements. In view of the current market environment, we nudged down our net profit forecast to RMB1.4bn/1.6bn/1.77bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.55bn/ 1.78bn/2.06bn), which implies 10x/9x/8x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：金价波动风险、渠道扩张不及预期、推新效果不及预期 Risks include: gold price fluctuations; worse-than-expected channel expansion outcomes; and weaker-than-expected new product launch impacts. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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