大北農: 24半年報業績改善,轉基因性狀許可費已部分預收

（以下内容从天风国际证券《大北農: 24半年報業績改善,轉基因性狀許可費已部分預收》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group (002385 CH) 24半年报业绩改善，转基因性状许可费已部分预收 24H1E net loss on industry pressures; hog measures improved indicators; advance payments of GM trait fees BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：大北农发布2024年半年度业绩预告，预计2024年上半年归母净利润亏损爲1.5亿元~1.8亿元，同比上年减亏76.75%~80.62%。预计2024年上半年扣非净利润亏损爲1.8亿元~2.1亿元，同比上年减亏70.37%~74.61%。其中，2024Q2公司预估实现归母净利润0.29亿元~0.59亿元。 H1E net earnings slump: measures kept feed ops normal; hog indicators improved Key metrics: Dabeinong (DBN) released early financial results with 24Q2E net profit at RMB29m-59m but H2E earnings slumped to a net loss of RMB150m-180m (down 76.75-80.62% yoy) and an ex-nonrecurring net loss of RMB180m-210m (down 70.37-74.61% yoy). 24H1公司饲料经营正常，生猪生产指标不断改善 1）饲料方面，24H1公司饲料业务经营正常。受生猪产能去化等影响，销量略有下降（同比下降不到10%）；但是公司采取一系列降本增效的举措，例如在饲料原料配方等方面进行优化，使用各种原料替代，如部分事业部用小麦（含芽麦）、大麦替代玉米，降低饲料成本，24H1饲料业务利润贡献保持稳健。 2）生猪方面，2024H1公司控股及参股公司生猪销量累计284.82万头，销售收入累计46.31亿元，其中控股公司26.5亿元，参股公司19.8亿元。上半年公司的母猪生产成本、育肥的各项生产指标、期间费用均在不断改善中，其中公司生猪业务在24Q2实现了盈利。我们认爲，下半年生猪价格有望持续景气，随着公司管理水平的持续提升（措施包括上线数字化管理系统、针对部分停产但硬件条件不错的猪场实施委托管理模式等），下半年公司生猪板块有望持续实现盈利。 Feed: hog production capacity cuts in H1E softened the dip in feed sales volume to less than 10% yoy. Measures implemented to reduce costs and raise efficiency enabled normal feed operations and a stable profit contribution in the first half of the year. They included tweaking feed raw material formulas and using raw material substitutes, with some business units replacing corn with barley and wheat (including sprouted wheat) to reduce feed costs. Hogs: DBN‘s controlling subsidiary and invested companies sold 2.85m hogs in total in 24H1E and their cumulative sales revenue came to RMB4.63bn, comprising RMB2.65bn from the controlling subsidiary and RMB1.98bn from its invested companies. Sow production costs, and various production indicators and expenses improved in H1, which drove a profitable hog business in Q2E. We are expecting hog prices to remain favorable and continuing business management improvements to sustain hog business profitability in H2E. The improvements in the back half of the year would include initiating a new digital management system and implementing an entrusted management model at some hog farms that have stopped production but have hardware in good condition. 玉米种植面积预计保持增长，已收到部分性状许可费的预收款 1）玉米方面，公司预计2024年种植季玉米种业种植推广面积同比有所增加，增幅有望达15~20%。公司已收到部分转基因种子性状许可费的预收款，整体性状收费标准约8-10元/亩（根据不同情况有优惠策略），该收入的确认预计在三季度财报体现。我们认爲，转基因玉米种子商业化应用已开啓，公司在转基因技术方面布局领先，品种储备丰富，有望在新技术应用时代获得种业规模进一步扩大打造公司新增长曲线。 2）水稻方面，主营水稻业务的龙粳种业在2024年5月份实现了并表，持股比例66.59%，对公司种子业务版图扩大亦有贡献。 Expanding corn acreage; received advance fee payments for some GM traits Corn: DBN wants to increase by 15~20% yoy its corn seed acreage for the 2024 planting season. It has received licensing fee payments in advance for genetically modified (GM) seeds with certain traits. The company charges standard fees of RMB8-10 per mu for GM traits, subject to situational and preferential variances. We reckon that DBN has kicked off commercial applications of its GM corn seed business and revenue recognition will likely occur in the Q3E results report. DBN leads the industry in GM technology and varietal reserves. We anticipate the seed industry scale-up will add a new growth driver for DBN through new technology market applications. Rice: DBN consolidated its 66.59% stake in Jiamusi Longjing Seed Industry Company in May 2024, with Longjing Seed‘s main rice business contributing to DBN‘s seed business expansion. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：我们预计公司2024/25/26年eps可达0.03/0.30/0.31元。我们认爲公司转基因技术领先，国内转基因玉米商业化背景下公司种业有望成爲公司新的业绩增长点；公司饲料基础紮实；2024年下半年猪周期有望景气向上带动公司生猪业绩增长，维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks We forecast DBN‘s EPS will arrive at RMB0.03/0.30/0.31 in 2024/25/26E. We regard the company as an industry leader in GM technology and we believe seed will become a new growth driver, given DBN‘s firm foundation in building this business and with increasing commercialization of Chinese GM corn. As for hogs, we anticipate a bullish hog industry cycle in 24H2E to drive the company’s hog business growth. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：饲料原料价格波动的风险；重大疫情及自然灾害的风险；转基因政策变动风险；种业品种研发和推广不确定性风险；业绩预告是公司财务部门初步测算的结果，具体财务数据以公司披露的《2024年半年度报告》爲准 Risk include: fluctuations in feed raw material prices; major epidemics or natural disasters; unfavorable changes in GM policies; and uncertainties related to seed varietals R&D and promotion. Note: our forecast is based on preliminary results released by Dabeinong’s finance department and subject to the release of its final 24H1 results. 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