百度集團-SW: 24Q1點評:文心生態持續賦能,雲服務提供新機遇

（以下内容从天风国际证券《百度集團-SW: 24Q1點評:文心生態持續賦能,雲服務提供新機遇》研报附件原文摘录）
Baidu (9888 HK) 24Q1點評：文心生態持續賦能，雲服務提供新機遇 24Q1E results: Ernie ecosystem boosted cloud business and increased LLM collaborations TP:HKD139.00 BUY(maintain) 投資要點/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 百度24Q1業績概覽：百度Q1總收入315億元，同比+1.2%；Non-GAAP淨利潤70億元，同比+22%。 百度Core：24Q1百度Core收入爲238億元，同比+3.5%；其中在線營銷收入171億元，同比+3%；主要因爲：宏觀經濟恢復不如預期，廣告客戶改善的可見性有限。我們預計在線營銷收入在未來幾個季度的增長保持基本穩固。 非在線營銷收入68億元，同比+6%，主要由智能雲業務帶動；愛奇藝收入79億元，同比-5%。AI Cloud收入達47億元，同比+12%。增長主要由生成式AI（gen-AI）和基礎模型驅動，AI收入佔總AI Cloud收入的6.9%。我們認爲，隨着ERNIE的採用不斷擴大，百度在基礎模型領域繼續取得重大進展，百度在AI CLOUD領域將有望保持領先。 Resilient Q1E: non-GAAP net profit up 22% yoy on revenue increase of 1.2% yoy Key metrics: Baidu‘s unaudited 24Q1E results show revenue at RMB31.5bn, up 1.2% yoy, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB7bn, up 22% yoy. Core revenue amounted to RMB23.8bn in 24Q1E (up 3.5% yoy) while non-core revenue from iQIYI came to RMB7.9bn (down 5% yoy). Core revenue: •Online marketing generated RMB17.1bn (up 3% yoy) in revenue in Q1E, despite a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and low visibility of advertiser improvements. We believe online marketing revenue growth will be stable in the coming quarters. •Non-online marketing was RMB6.8bn in Q1E (up 6% yoy), driven mainly by the smart cloud business, which we discuss in detail below: 公司正在利用獨特的四層AI技術棧優化ERNIE模型的成本和性能，我們估計公司在24Q2將實現穩健的收入增長。我們看好百度在發展LLM和Gen AI上的優勢，以及通過技術創新改進模型表現、推動人工智能貨幣化的潛力。整體流量方面，據公司公告披露，百度3月平均月活爲6.76億，同比+3%。 Ernie and AI cloud revenue: •Gen-AI and foundation models: the smart cloud business contributed RMB4.7bn (up 12% yoy) revenue in Q1E. Most of the growth came from generative AI (gen-AI) and foundation models, which together contributed 6.9% of AI cloud revenue. As Ernie adoption widens and Baidu gains traction in foundation models, we expect the company will maintain its leading role in the AI cloud market. •Four-layer stack: Baidu‘s unique four-layer AI architecture optimizes cost and performance for its Ernie large language model (LLM) series, which we expect will help the company deliver strong revenue growth in Q2E. We are bullish about Baidu’s edge in developing LLM and gen-AI, and we expect its technological innovations will improve model performance and boost AI monetization. •MAU: Baidu’s total monthly active users averaged 676m in March, a yoy increase of 3%, according to the company. 利潤端：24Q1Non-GAAP運營利潤67億元，其中百度Core爲56億元，運營利潤率24%；Non-GAAP淨利潤70億元，同比+22%。得益於百度獨特的四層AI架構和端到端優化能力，ERNIE的推理成本大幅降低。EB3.5的推理成本僅爲2023年3月版本的約1%。 Q1E profitability: •Non-GAAP operating profit came to RMB6.7bn in 24Q1E, of which core business contributed RMB5.6bn, with an operating margin of 24%. •Non-GAAP net profit was RMB7bn, up 22% yoy. •Cheaper inference costs: the company made substantial cuts to Ernie’s inference costs. Ernie Bot 3.5 sharply reduced inference cost to only about 1% of the March 2023 version, due to Baidu’s four-layer AI stack and end-to-end optimization. 智能雲&文心一言：2024Q1，公司爲了促進人工智能原生應用程序、智能體的開發，以及在百度的MaaS平臺創建客製化模型，百度推出並改進了企業客戶的MaaS平臺工具，使得百度在第一季度從在線營銷中獲得了170億的收入。在AI基礎設施層面，百度的深度學習框架PaddlePaddle過不斷創新和改進目前已能兼容超過50種不同的芯片，開發者社區已經增長到1300萬人。截至2024年4月中，百度飛槳平臺已凝聚1300萬開發者。 公司於23Q4季度宣佈了文心大模型與三星及榮耀智能手機的合作，24Q1加入了Oppo、vivo、小米等智能手機制造商以及聯想和蔚來汽車等個人電腦及電動汽車領域，我們預計未來該合作項目將繼續成爲ai雲的收入貢獻增量之一。 Ernie LLM and AI cloud: honing enterprise MaaS tools; Ernie tie-ups increase To boost native AI applications and smart entities development, and better create customized models on Baidu’s model-as-a-service (MaaS) business, it launched new as well as improved MaaS platform tools for its corporate customers, boosting online marketing revenue to RMB17bn for the first quarter. In terms of AI infrastructure, Baidu innovated and improved PaddlePaddle, its deep learning framework, which is compatible with more than 50 different chips, and is used by its 13m-strong developer community. Ernie LLM tie-ups: on the heels of announcing collaborations with Samsung and Honor smartphones in 23Q4, Baidu added the likes of smartphone manufacturers Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi, and PC and electric vehicle producers Lenovo and NIO in 24Q1. We expect collaboration projects will keep contributing incremental revenue to AI cloud in the future. Outlook: as Ernie monetization takes off and Baidu widens its application markets, we expect Baidu’s mobile ecosystem and AI cloud will generate higher revenue and profits. 智能駕駛：據公司年報，百度的自動駕駛服務蘿蔔快跑在24Q1供應的自動駕駛訂單約82.6萬單，同比+25%。截至2024年4月19日，蘿蔔快跑累計爲公衆提供的自動駕駛出行服務訂單超過6百萬單。 隨着ERNIE的貨幣化已經開始起飛，百度將進一步推動ERNIE的廣泛應用，我們預計百度的移動生態系統和AI雲將產生越來越多的收入和利潤。同時，公司積極推動無人駕駛車隊的硬件成本下降，第六代機器人出租車RT6的量產和時間線保持在正軌，並計劃在2024年年底前將武漢運營的全無人駕駛車隊擴大到1000輛，是去年年底的三倍，未來有望實現快速擴展運營。 Apollo Go autonomous driving orders up 25% yoy in Q1E; Wuhan fleet expands Growth: Baidu’s autonomous driving service Apollo Go had about 826,000 autonomous driving orders in 24Q1E, up 25% yoy, while cumulative orders for the open road grew past 6m as of 19 April 2024, based on the company‘s earnings report. Outlook: the company continues to tamp hardware costs for its driverless fleet. Mass production and the rollout timeline for RT6, its sixth-generation robot taxi, is on track. Baidu plans to expand its fleet of fully driverless taxis operating in Wuhan to 1,000 cars by the end of 2024E, 3x that of end-2023. We anticipate operations will expand rapidly in the future. 投資建議/Investment Ideas 投資建議：基於百度本季度業績表現強勁，或反映出在複雜宏觀經濟形勢下的經營韌性，以及AI業務文心一言的穩健發展。短期收入端或因AI升級承壓，因此我們將FY2024-2026收入預測調整到1389/1532/1703億元，前值1394/1538/1712億元，Non-GAAP營業利潤調整到280/320/355億元，前值279/321/357億元。基於SOTP估值，給百度 2024年廣告、雲業務、愛奇藝非廣告收入分別以 8x P/E、3x P/S、14x PE，對應目標價139港元，維持“買入”評級。 Valuation and risks Baidu’s healthy 24Q1E results reflect the company‘s operational resilience, given steady growth in its Ernie Bot AI business amid complex macroeconomic factors. Expecting short-term revenue pressure during AI upgrades, we nudged down our 2024/25/26E revenue forecast to RMB138.9bn/153.2bn/170.3bn (previously RMB139.4bn/153.8bn/171.2bn) and non-GAAP operating profit to RMB28bn/32bn/35.5bn (previously RMB27.9bn/32.1bn/35.7bn). Our SOTP methodology values Baidu‘s advertising/cloud/iQIYI non-advertising revenues at 8x PE/3x PS/14x PE in 2024E, deriving our target price of HKD139. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 風險提示：1、國內雲市場競爭加劇；2、互聯網監管風險；3、疫情反覆風險；4、宏觀經濟放緩；5、公司AI產品競爭力不及預期 Risks include: weaker-than-expected AI product competitiveness; intensifying competition in the Chinese cloud market; internet business regulatory risks; pandemic resurgence; and a macroeconomic slowdown. 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