行動教育: Q2業績延續高增

（以下内容从天风国际证券《行動教育: Q2業績延續高增》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shanghai Action Education Technology (605098 CH) Q2业绩延续高增 AET guides robust Q2E and H1E revenue and net profit growth BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q2预告中枢收入2.3亿同增31%，归母净利1.2亿同增32% 公司发布业绩预增预告，24Q2收入预计2.1-2.6亿，同增17%-45%；归母净利润预计1.1-1.3亿，同增21%-44%，扣非归母净利润预计1-1.2亿，同增20-44%；24H1收入预计3.5-4亿，同增21%-39%；归母净利润预计1.3-1.5亿，同增23%-42%，扣非归母净利润预计1.25-1.45亿，同增27-48%。 业绩增长主要系：1）大客户战略成果持续显现；2）品牌影响力持续提升；3）人才梯队建设卓有成效，业务人员专业度及客户满意度提升。 在去年高基数背景下公司Q2收入业绩仍保持较快增长，我们认爲一方面或系浓缩EMBA及校长EMBA新训人数增长，伴随课程单价提升，奠定增长基础；同时部分课程排课或有所加密，加速课程交付及收入确认。 AET guides net profit up 21-44% yoy in Q2E and up 23-42% yoy in H1E Action Education Technology (AET) released 24Q2E and 24H2E earnings guidance: Q2E: it is expecting revenue to range RMB210-260m in 24Q2E, up 17-45% yoy, and net profit ranging RMB110-130m, up 21-44% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit ranging RMB100-120m, up 20-44% yoy. The median values place Q2E revenue at RMB230m (up 31% yoy) and net profit at RMB120m (up 32% yoy). H1E: the company expects 24H1E revenue to range RMB350-400m, up 21-39% yoy, with net profit at RMB130-150m, up 23-42% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB125-145m, up 27-48% yoy. Growth drivers: the company attributes the main factors as: ·effects of its key-customer strategy ·effects of building up its brand profile ·effective nurturing of its team of talents led to higher professionalism among business personnel and increased client satisfaction. Notably, the robust Q2E revenue growth comes on top of an already high base last year. One factor, we believe, was a rise in new trainees for the condensed and executive MBA courses, alongside higher course fees, both of which provided a firm basis for growth. Second, increased privacy in scheduling some of the courses could have increased course delivery and revenue recognition. 持续践行大客户战略，人效提升显著 23年公司聚焦大客户战略，将年累计订单量达百万的客户定义爲大客户，精准制定客户画像，针对客户需求进行评估、提案、制定学习和服务方案，创造商机并持续跟进。公司23年目标开发200家大客户，截至23年末实际与240+家大客户企业达成深度合作；24年目标开发300家。 同时围绕大客户打造特战队，相关主题培训共开展42期；23年末销售人员达720人，净增113人，24年或持续招募强化销售团队。 Sticking with the key client strategy while raising manpower efficiency Effective client development: AET stepped up its key client strategy in 2023. Having delineated that key clients are those whose annual order volume amounts to RMB1m, the company went on to precisely develop, evaluate, propose and set up learning and service plans based on their requirements. In this way, it creates and follows up on business opportunities. The company set a goal in 2023 to help build up 200 major clients and it has formed deep ties with more than 240 major client companies as of end-2023. Next, its goal for 2024 is to build up 300 companies. Talent: AET set up a special team to handle major clients and they conducted 42 sessions of related thematic training. The sales staff had grown to 720 by the end of 2023, a net increase of 113 personnel, and it might further strengthen the team and continue with recruitment in 2024E. 强现金流+历史高分红水平，兼备成长与分红价值 公司在预收款模式下具备较强现金流；从历史分红水平来看，公司2021、2022、2023年分红率分别爲109%、213%、97%，有望继续保持较高分红比例，是兼具业绩成长价值与高分红价值的优质标的。 High growth, high dividend: strong cash flow and historical high dividends We regard AET as a premium stock in terms of both high growth and high dividends. First, its prepayment model ensures strong cash flow. Second, we gauge the company will maintain a high dividend payout ratio, based on its historical DPRs of 109%/213%/ 97% in 2021/22/23. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 我们持续看好行动教育作爲国内头部实效管理培训机构的表现，大客户拓展战略持续见效，进一步开拓成长空间。我们预计公司24-26年EPS分别爲2.4、3.0、3.8元/股，对应PE分别爲15、12、10x。 Valuation and risks We remain bullish about AET’s prospects as a leading management training institution in the Chinese market. Its key client strategy is driving effective growth and creating the potential for future expansion. We maintain our forecast with EPS at RMB2.4/3.0/3.8 in 2024/25/26E, corresponding to PE of 15x/12x/10x in those years. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：行业竞争风险加剧；宏观经济形势变动产生的风险；关键人才流失风险；业绩预告仅爲初步测算，具体以公司半年报爲准。 Risks include: intensifying competition; macroeconomic changes; and loss of key talent. Note that the company’s forecasts are preliminary numbers; please refer to AET’s 24H1 final report for actual data. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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