港股週報(2024.07.01-2024.07.07): 港股市場逐步展現回暖跡象,繼續看好港股市場具性價比的稀缺優質資產
（以下内容从天风国际证券《港股週報(2024.07.01-2024.07.07): 港股市場逐步展現回暖跡象,繼續看好港股市場具性價比的稀缺優質資產》研报附件原文摘录）
Market Pulse: HK Stocks 港股市场逐步展现回暖迹象，继续看好港股市场具性价比的稀缺优质资产 Amid a steady market recovery, we like HK stocks’ attractive valuations, as well as scarce quality assets 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 本周恒生指数、恒生国企指数、恒生科技指数分别+0.46%、+0.80%、+1.19%，港股市场逐步展现回暖迹象。 本周南向资金流入约100.9238亿元。本周美元兑人民币离岸汇率上行，7/5日收於7.2842。24Q1以来，港股市场底部不断擡升，4月下旬以来内外多重因素共振，市场迎来持续大涨，5月港股市场小幅收涨。全球市场比较下，中国资产当前仍具性价比。在预期逐渐修复、期待後续基本面逐渐改善的基础上，我们认爲当前港股中概仍具估值吸引力，风险回报比高。 HK-listed Chinese stocks provide attractive valuations and high risk-reward ratios HSI indices: the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.46% last week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.80% and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 1.19%, as signs of a gradual recovery emerged in the Hong Kong market. Southbound fund inflows amounted to about RMB10.09bn and the USD/CNH (offshore) rate rose in the week to close at 7.2842 on 5 July. The HK stock market trended upward from 24Q1, while resonance from multiple internal and external factors sustained the surge from late April and the market went on to trend slightly higher in May. Inexpensive valuations: Chinese assets remain cost-effective on a global market perspective. With expectations firming amid projections of gradually improving fundamentals, we view HK-listed Chinese stocks’ current valuations as attractive and we believe they have high risk-return ratios. 资金层面，本周港股通4个交易日共净买入100.92亿元，较上周南向资金多流入14.75亿元，南向资金持续流入港股市场，主要买入建设银行、中国移动、工商银行等高股息概念股。本周腾讯、阿里巴巴等互联网公司加大股东回报带动恒生指数走强。7月2日，阿里巴巴集团发布公告，2024年第二季度公司以58亿美元的总价回购了总计 6.13亿股普通股（相当於7700万股美国存托股）；7月2日-5日，腾讯控股连续4天回购约10亿港币股票。宏观层面来看，2024年6月，财新中国制造业PMI录得51.8，较前月上升0.1个百分点，连续第八个月维持在榮枯线上并录得2021年6月以来新高，制造业景气度继续向好。从市场估值层面来看，截止7月5日，恒指12个月前瞻PE较2019年来中位数折让-1.5个标准差，处於2019年来历史分位值约13.5%；恒指相对MSCI全球指数前瞻PE较2019年来中位数折让-2.9个标准差，处於2019年来6.0%分位值；恒指股权风险溢价低於历史中位数0.4个标准差，处於约56.9%历史分位值。横向来看，港股市场在前期深度回调之後，持续处於全球价值低位，估值性价比凸显。 High-dividend stocks drove net buys; manufacturing industry maintain recovery Southbound flows: the HK Stock Connect had net buying amounting to RMB10.09bn during the shorter week of 4 trading days (1 July was a public holiday) last week, an RMB1.48bn increase from the previous week in terms of southbound funds. In particular, buys into high-dividend stocks like China Construction Bank, China Mobile and ICBC Funds drove the continuing flow of funds into the HK stock market. Also driving the HSI higher were internet companies that increased shareholder returns, such as Tencent and Alibaba. Alibaba Group announced on 2 July it had repurchased 613m of its common shares (equivalent to 77m ADS) for USD5.8bn in 24Q2, and Tencent Holdings bought back HKD1bn of its shares over 4 straight days. Manufacturing: the recovery in the manufacturing industry continued, as reflected by the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 51.8 in June 2024, up 0.1ppt mom, staying above the boom-bust line for the 8th straight month, and hitting a new high since June 2021. Market valuations: the HSI 12-month forward PE as of 5 July was 1.5 standard deviations below the median in 2019 and within the 13.5th percentile in 2019. The HSI forward PE relative to the MSCI Global Index was 2.9 std dev below the median in 2019 and within the 6.0th percentile in 2019. The HSI equity risk premium was 0.4 std dev below the historical median and roughly within the 56.9th historical percentile. A horizontal comparison shows the HK stock market still has a low global value after the previous deep correction, reflecting its inexpensive valuation. 海外方面，美国6月ADP就业人数增15万人，低於预期的增16.5万人。美国6月ISM非制造业PMI爲48.8，爲2020年5月以来新低，预期52.5，前值53.8。当地时间7月3日，美联储公布了6月11日至12日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，通胀在过去一年有所缓解，但仍处於高位。美联储依旧会高度关注通胀风险。与此同时，委员们一致认爲，在他们对通胀持续向2%迈进有更大信心之前，降低利率目标区间是不合适的。而爲了支持在较长期内实现最大就业和2%通胀率的目标，委员们同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%。 Foreign markets: US job creation slows; inflation eases; Fed to maintain rates ADP data shows the US added 150,000 non-farm private-sector jobs in June, below an expected 165,000. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 48.8 in June, the lowest since May 2020, vs an expected 52.5 and the previous value of 53.8. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released on 3 July the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of 11-12 June. The minutes show that inflation, while remaining high, has eased in the past year. The Fed said it will keep monitoring inflation risks. FOMC members agreed it would be inappropriate to lower the target range for interest rates until they had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%. To support the goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation over the longer term, they agreed to maintain the target range for US federal funds at 5.25-5.5%. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 建议关注： 1）互联网平台：【美团】、【腾讯】、【阿里巴巴】、【拼多多】、【快手】、【滴滴】； 2）高弹性标的：【美图公司】、【满帮】； 3）新势力：【理想汽车】、【小鹏汽车】； 4）新消费：【泡泡玛特】、【名创优品】、【瑞幸咖啡】； 5）Web3金融科技:【OSL集团】； 6）有望受益於政策的困境反转【新东方】、【好未来】等。 （注：美团、泡泡玛特、名创优品、拼多多爲海外&传媒、商社联合覆盖；美图爲海外&传媒、计算机联合覆盖；理想汽车、小鹏汽车爲海外&传媒、汽车联合覆盖；新东方、好未来爲轻纺覆盖。） Stock ideas Online platforms: ·Meituan (3690 HK, BUY) ·Tencent Holdings (0700 HK, BUY) ·Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK, BUY) ·Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY) ·Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK, BUY) H-shares: highly elastic and on a recovery trend: ·Meitu (1357 HK, BUY) ·Weimob (2013 HK, BUY) ·Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK, BUY) New energy vehicles: ·Li Auto (2015 HK, BUY) ·XPeng (9868 HK, BUY) New consumption: ·Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK, BUY) ·Miniso Group Holding (9896 HK, BUY) Potential beneficiaries of a policy reversal: ·New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK, BUY) ·TAL Education Group (TAL US, BUY) Coverage notes: Meituan, Pop Mart International, Miniso and Pinduoduo are jointly covered by the commerce desk; Meitu is jointly covered by the computer desk; Li Auto and XPeng are covered by the autos desk; New Oriental Education & Technology Group and TAL Education Group are covered by the textiles and apparel desk. Non-rated market players (we have no investment opinion on these stocks): DiDi Global (DIDIY US), Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), OSL Group (0863 HK). 风险提示：美国和欧洲市场面临持续加息和高通胀率；国内疫情反覆风险；国内经济增长放缓；政策刺激效果不足 Risks include: the impact of continuing interest rate hikes and high inflation on the US and European markets; pandemic resurgence in China; slowing Chinese economic growth; and inadequate policy stimulus. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
Market Pulse: HK Stocks 港股市场逐步展现回暖迹象，继续看好港股市场具性价比的稀缺优质资产 Amid a steady market recovery, we like HK stocks’ attractive valuations, as well as scarce quality assets 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 本周恒生指数、恒生国企指数、恒生科技指数分别+0.46%、+0.80%、+1.19%，港股市场逐步展现回暖迹象。 本周南向资金流入约100.9238亿元。本周美元兑人民币离岸汇率上行，7/5日收於7.2842。24Q1以来，港股市场底部不断擡升，4月下旬以来内外多重因素共振，市场迎来持续大涨，5月港股市场小幅收涨。全球市场比较下，中国资产当前仍具性价比。在预期逐渐修复、期待後续基本面逐渐改善的基础上，我们认爲当前港股中概仍具估值吸引力，风险回报比高。 HK-listed Chinese stocks provide attractive valuations and high risk-reward ratios HSI indices: the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.46% last week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.80% and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 1.19%, as signs of a gradual recovery emerged in the Hong Kong market. Southbound fund inflows amounted to about RMB10.09bn and the USD/CNH (offshore) rate rose in the week to close at 7.2842 on 5 July. The HK stock market trended upward from 24Q1, while resonance from multiple internal and external factors sustained the surge from late April and the market went on to trend slightly higher in May. Inexpensive valuations: Chinese assets remain cost-effective on a global market perspective. With expectations firming amid projections of gradually improving fundamentals, we view HK-listed Chinese stocks’ current valuations as attractive and we believe they have high risk-return ratios. 资金层面，本周港股通4个交易日共净买入100.92亿元，较上周南向资金多流入14.75亿元，南向资金持续流入港股市场，主要买入建设银行、中国移动、工商银行等高股息概念股。本周腾讯、阿里巴巴等互联网公司加大股东回报带动恒生指数走强。7月2日，阿里巴巴集团发布公告，2024年第二季度公司以58亿美元的总价回购了总计 6.13亿股普通股（相当於7700万股美国存托股）；7月2日-5日，腾讯控股连续4天回购约10亿港币股票。宏观层面来看，2024年6月，财新中国制造业PMI录得51.8，较前月上升0.1个百分点，连续第八个月维持在榮枯线上并录得2021年6月以来新高，制造业景气度继续向好。从市场估值层面来看，截止7月5日，恒指12个月前瞻PE较2019年来中位数折让-1.5个标准差，处於2019年来历史分位值约13.5%；恒指相对MSCI全球指数前瞻PE较2019年来中位数折让-2.9个标准差，处於2019年来6.0%分位值；恒指股权风险溢价低於历史中位数0.4个标准差，处於约56.9%历史分位值。横向来看，港股市场在前期深度回调之後，持续处於全球价值低位，估值性价比凸显。 High-dividend stocks drove net buys; manufacturing industry maintain recovery Southbound flows: the HK Stock Connect had net buying amounting to RMB10.09bn during the shorter week of 4 trading days (1 July was a public holiday) last week, an RMB1.48bn increase from the previous week in terms of southbound funds. In particular, buys into high-dividend stocks like China Construction Bank, China Mobile and ICBC Funds drove the continuing flow of funds into the HK stock market. Also driving the HSI higher were internet companies that increased shareholder returns, such as Tencent and Alibaba. Alibaba Group announced on 2 July it had repurchased 613m of its common shares (equivalent to 77m ADS) for USD5.8bn in 24Q2, and Tencent Holdings bought back HKD1bn of its shares over 4 straight days. Manufacturing: the recovery in the manufacturing industry continued, as reflected by the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 51.8 in June 2024, up 0.1ppt mom, staying above the boom-bust line for the 8th straight month, and hitting a new high since June 2021. Market valuations: the HSI 12-month forward PE as of 5 July was 1.5 standard deviations below the median in 2019 and within the 13.5th percentile in 2019. The HSI forward PE relative to the MSCI Global Index was 2.9 std dev below the median in 2019 and within the 6.0th percentile in 2019. The HSI equity risk premium was 0.4 std dev below the historical median and roughly within the 56.9th historical percentile. A horizontal comparison shows the HK stock market still has a low global value after the previous deep correction, reflecting its inexpensive valuation. 海外方面，美国6月ADP就业人数增15万人，低於预期的增16.5万人。美国6月ISM非制造业PMI爲48.8，爲2020年5月以来新低，预期52.5，前值53.8。当地时间7月3日，美联储公布了6月11日至12日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，通胀在过去一年有所缓解，但仍处於高位。美联储依旧会高度关注通胀风险。与此同时，委员们一致认爲，在他们对通胀持续向2%迈进有更大信心之前，降低利率目标区间是不合适的。而爲了支持在较长期内实现最大就业和2%通胀率的目标，委员们同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%。 Foreign markets: US job creation slows; inflation eases; Fed to maintain rates ADP data shows the US added 150,000 non-farm private-sector jobs in June, below an expected 165,000. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 48.8 in June, the lowest since May 2020, vs an expected 52.5 and the previous value of 53.8. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released on 3 July the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of 11-12 June. The minutes show that inflation, while remaining high, has eased in the past year. The Fed said it will keep monitoring inflation risks. FOMC members agreed it would be inappropriate to lower the target range for interest rates until they had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%. To support the goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation over the longer term, they agreed to maintain the target range for US federal funds at 5.25-5.5%. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 建议关注： 1）互联网平台：【美团】、【腾讯】、【阿里巴巴】、【拼多多】、【快手】、【滴滴】； 2）高弹性标的：【美图公司】、【满帮】； 3）新势力：【理想汽车】、【小鹏汽车】； 4）新消费：【泡泡玛特】、【名创优品】、【瑞幸咖啡】； 5）Web3金融科技:【OSL集团】； 6）有望受益於政策的困境反转【新东方】、【好未来】等。 （注：美团、泡泡玛特、名创优品、拼多多爲海外&传媒、商社联合覆盖；美图爲海外&传媒、计算机联合覆盖；理想汽车、小鹏汽车爲海外&传媒、汽车联合覆盖；新东方、好未来爲轻纺覆盖。） Stock ideas Online platforms: ·Meituan (3690 HK, BUY) ·Tencent Holdings (0700 HK, BUY) ·Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK, BUY) ·Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY) ·Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK, BUY) H-shares: highly elastic and on a recovery trend: ·Meitu (1357 HK, BUY) ·Weimob (2013 HK, BUY) ·Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK, BUY) New energy vehicles: ·Li Auto (2015 HK, BUY) ·XPeng (9868 HK, BUY) New consumption: ·Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK, BUY) ·Miniso Group Holding (9896 HK, BUY) Potential beneficiaries of a policy reversal: ·New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK, BUY) ·TAL Education Group (TAL US, BUY) Coverage notes: Meituan, Pop Mart International, Miniso and Pinduoduo are jointly covered by the commerce desk; Meitu is jointly covered by the computer desk; Li Auto and XPeng are covered by the autos desk; New Oriental Education & Technology Group and TAL Education Group are covered by the textiles and apparel desk. Non-rated market players (we have no investment opinion on these stocks): DiDi Global (DIDIY US), Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), OSL Group (0863 HK). 风险提示：美国和欧洲市场面临持续加息和高通胀率；国内疫情反覆风险；国内经济增长放缓；政策刺激效果不足 Risks include: the impact of continuing interest rate hikes and high inflation on the US and European markets; pandemic resurgence in China; slowing Chinese economic growth; and inadequate policy stimulus. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
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