汽車: 小鵬汽車: 24Q1年業績點評:X9 推動毛利率高增,首次確認軟件收入
（以下内容从天风国际证券《汽車: 小鵬汽車: 24Q1年業績點評:X9 推動毛利率高增,首次確認軟件收入》研报附件原文摘录）
China Automobiles 24Q1年业绩点评：X9 推动毛利率高增，首次确认软件收入 XPeng case study: X9-led high GPM growth in 24Q1E; R&D tech services an emerging revenue driver 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 小鹏汽车24Q1: Q1 累计交付 21,821 辆车，同比增长19.7%，环比下降49.8%，主要由於G6及24款G9当期交付量减少和季节性影响；总营收 65.5 亿元人民币，同比增长 62.3%，汽车收入 55.4 亿元人民币，同比增长57.8%，服务和其他收入10亿元，同比增长93.1%，主要系大衆汽车集团进行平台与软件战略技术合作有关的技术研发服务收益本季度首次确认软件收入。24Q2指引：公司预计24Q2汽车销量将在2.9万辆至3.2万辆，对应的收入约爲75.0亿元至83.0亿元。 利润端：整体毛利率 12.9%，汽车毛利率5.5%，汽车毛利提升主要系成本降低及产品组合改善所致，此外由於下调P5销量预期，P5相关的存货减值及采购承诺的亏损对本季度汽车毛利率产生了3.2个百分点的负影响，加回後爲8.7%；本季度净亏损 13.7 亿元人民币，同比缩窄41.5%。 XPeng in Q1E: X9 fueled deliveries; better mix and costs helped gross margin XPeng’s unaudited 24Q1E results bring insights into the current trends in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry: Deliveries up 20% yoy: XPeng delivered 21,821 cars in the first quarter of the year, up 19.7% yoy but down 49.8% qoq. The company attributes the yoy uptrend to higher deliveries, particularly of X9, while the qoq slide is explained by seasonality and lower delivery volumes of G6 and the 2024 G9, mitigated by X9 volumes. Financials: ·Revenue: Q1E generated RMB6.55bn in revenue, up 62.3% yoy; RMB5.54bn from the automotive business, up 57.8% yoy, and the remaining RMB1bn from services and other business, up 93.1% yoy. The uptrend was mainly driven by the first-time recognition of tech R&D service revenue contributed by the platform and software strategic tech collaboration with Volkswagen. ·Profitability: total gross margin was 12.9%, with vehicle gross margin expanding yoy and qoq to 5.5%. Cost cuts and a better car model mix drove up vehicle gross margin, but the 8.7% vehicle gross margin was cut by 3.2ppt on management’s reduced sales expectations of the P5 model as well as P5 inventory impairment and losses on purchase commitments. Net loss in the quarter came to RMB1.37bn, a yoy improvement of 41.5%. ·24Q2E guidance: XPeng’s projected 29,000-32,000 car sales in Q2E implies revenue of about RMB7.50bn-8.30bn. 费用端：研发费用 13.5 亿元，同比增长 4.2%，销售和管理费用 13.9 亿元，同比增长 0.1%。本季度小鹏574家门店，覆盖178个城市，环比增加74家。本季度现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期投资及现金存款总计414.0亿元。 Expenses: R&D expenses amounted to RMB1.35bn in Q1E, up 4.2% yoy, while sales and administrative expenses rose 0.1% yoy to RMB1.39bn. It has 574 stores in 178 cities, 74 more stores than in the previous quarter. Cash: cash and equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and cash deposits amounted to RMB41.4bn. 大衆合作持续加深，有望逐步提升利润率水平：24年4月18日大衆汽车集团和小鹏汽车联合宣布双方进一步拓展合作，共同开发基於域控制器及中央计算的电子电气架构，此外2026年起，新的架构将应用於本土生产的大衆汽车品牌电动汽车中。我们认爲相关合作有望提升小鹏技术输出的价值量，并持续打造软件创收的可能性，软件收入有望逐步提升利润率水平。 Volkswagen tie-up: XPeng’s deepening ties with VW will likely nudge up profit margins gradually. They jointly announced on 18 April 2024 that both parties will expand their cooperation to co-develop electronic and electrical (E/E) architecture for domain controllers and centralized computing. Starting from 2026E, they plan to use the new E/E architecture in produced-in-China Volkswagen-branded electric vehicles (EV). We reckon the collaboration could raise XPeng’s technology output value as a software revenue trend emerges. Software revenue could gradually expand profit margins. 国内首个端到端大模型上车，25年实现城区高速智驾体验同步：24年5月20日小鹏汽车发布国内首个量产上车的端到端大模型，包括神经网络XNet、规控大模型XPlanner和大语言模型XBrain。其产品预期实现“2天迭代一次”，并在未来18个月内智驾能力提升30倍，在2025年实现城区智驾比肩高速智驾体验。我们认爲更广泛、高效的经销商渠道铺设和更有竞争力的成本有望在下半年开始逐步和新产品周期如X9、Mona等实现共振，我们持续看好小鹏下半年渠道和车型的年内的双下沉。 End-to-end vehicular LLM: XPeng mass deployed China’s first such in-vehicle large language model (LLM) on 20 May 2024, a step toward its synchronized urban highway smart driving experience slated for 2025E. The over-the-air operating system upgrade included regulatory control model XPlanner using neural network XNet and managed by its XBrain LLM. Based on iteration every two days, XPeng’s smart driving functionalities would increase 30x in the next 18 months, and help it advance toward an urban smart driving experience comparable to highway smart driving by 2025E. Building broader and more efficient dealer channels, as well as ensuring more competitive costs, could chime with new product cycles for X9 and Mona starting in 24H2E. The company’s dual growth trajectories in channels and models appear to have healthy prospects for H2E. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲公司销量增速拐点有望加速到来，且智能化竞争依然是24年的主旋律，前期具备领先优势的小鹏汽车有望持续占据席位，有望享受电动化渗透加速後的细分智能化需求提升和下沉市场需求。Mona新品发布後有望叠加前期渠道下沉和智能化领先的双重因素实现15万级别电动车市场的稀缺竞争力，有望打造年内继X9後的重点车型，同时後续新平台车型的毛利水平有望持续提升，建议持续关注公司新车型计划。 NEV outlook: smart driving prowess the main competitive differentiator in 2024E We anticipate the key competitive thrust for the NEV industry in 2024E will be smart driving prowess. Looking at XPeng’s sales growth trajectory and the NEV producer’s leading advantage as an early mover, it would likely maintain its market positioning and benefit from an increase in smart driving demand as well as lower-tier-city demand with EV penetration. XPeng is looking at a potential inflection point. With the launch of the new Mona model, its competitive positioning would increase in the RMB150,000 EV price band, combined with its advantages of early penetration and smart driving leadership. After X9, Mona could potentially be its key model this year. The year ahead could bring gross margin expansion as subsequent new platform models get released. We suggest that investors monitor its new model pipeline. New energy vehicle stocks: ·Li Autos: 2015 HK, BUY ·XPeng: 9868 HK, BUY (covered by the Autos desk) 风险提示：新车型销量不及预期；智能驾驶研发速度不及预期；新能源行业与政策不及预期等 Risks include: lower-than-expected sales of new car models; slower-than-expected smart driving R&D progress; worse-than-expected new energy business and industry policies. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
China Automobiles 24Q1年业绩点评：X9 推动毛利率高增，首次确认软件收入 XPeng case study: X9-led high GPM growth in 24Q1E; R&D tech services an emerging revenue driver 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 小鹏汽车24Q1: Q1 累计交付 21,821 辆车，同比增长19.7%，环比下降49.8%，主要由於G6及24款G9当期交付量减少和季节性影响；总营收 65.5 亿元人民币，同比增长 62.3%，汽车收入 55.4 亿元人民币，同比增长57.8%，服务和其他收入10亿元，同比增长93.1%，主要系大衆汽车集团进行平台与软件战略技术合作有关的技术研发服务收益本季度首次确认软件收入。24Q2指引：公司预计24Q2汽车销量将在2.9万辆至3.2万辆，对应的收入约爲75.0亿元至83.0亿元。 利润端：整体毛利率 12.9%，汽车毛利率5.5%，汽车毛利提升主要系成本降低及产品组合改善所致，此外由於下调P5销量预期，P5相关的存货减值及采购承诺的亏损对本季度汽车毛利率产生了3.2个百分点的负影响，加回後爲8.7%；本季度净亏损 13.7 亿元人民币，同比缩窄41.5%。 XPeng in Q1E: X9 fueled deliveries; better mix and costs helped gross margin XPeng’s unaudited 24Q1E results bring insights into the current trends in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry: Deliveries up 20% yoy: XPeng delivered 21,821 cars in the first quarter of the year, up 19.7% yoy but down 49.8% qoq. The company attributes the yoy uptrend to higher deliveries, particularly of X9, while the qoq slide is explained by seasonality and lower delivery volumes of G6 and the 2024 G9, mitigated by X9 volumes. Financials: ·Revenue: Q1E generated RMB6.55bn in revenue, up 62.3% yoy; RMB5.54bn from the automotive business, up 57.8% yoy, and the remaining RMB1bn from services and other business, up 93.1% yoy. The uptrend was mainly driven by the first-time recognition of tech R&D service revenue contributed by the platform and software strategic tech collaboration with Volkswagen. ·Profitability: total gross margin was 12.9%, with vehicle gross margin expanding yoy and qoq to 5.5%. Cost cuts and a better car model mix drove up vehicle gross margin, but the 8.7% vehicle gross margin was cut by 3.2ppt on management’s reduced sales expectations of the P5 model as well as P5 inventory impairment and losses on purchase commitments. Net loss in the quarter came to RMB1.37bn, a yoy improvement of 41.5%. ·24Q2E guidance: XPeng’s projected 29,000-32,000 car sales in Q2E implies revenue of about RMB7.50bn-8.30bn. 费用端：研发费用 13.5 亿元，同比增长 4.2%，销售和管理费用 13.9 亿元，同比增长 0.1%。本季度小鹏574家门店，覆盖178个城市，环比增加74家。本季度现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期投资及现金存款总计414.0亿元。 Expenses: R&D expenses amounted to RMB1.35bn in Q1E, up 4.2% yoy, while sales and administrative expenses rose 0.1% yoy to RMB1.39bn. It has 574 stores in 178 cities, 74 more stores than in the previous quarter. Cash: cash and equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and cash deposits amounted to RMB41.4bn. 大衆合作持续加深，有望逐步提升利润率水平：24年4月18日大衆汽车集团和小鹏汽车联合宣布双方进一步拓展合作，共同开发基於域控制器及中央计算的电子电气架构，此外2026年起，新的架构将应用於本土生产的大衆汽车品牌电动汽车中。我们认爲相关合作有望提升小鹏技术输出的价值量，并持续打造软件创收的可能性，软件收入有望逐步提升利润率水平。 Volkswagen tie-up: XPeng’s deepening ties with VW will likely nudge up profit margins gradually. They jointly announced on 18 April 2024 that both parties will expand their cooperation to co-develop electronic and electrical (E/E) architecture for domain controllers and centralized computing. Starting from 2026E, they plan to use the new E/E architecture in produced-in-China Volkswagen-branded electric vehicles (EV). We reckon the collaboration could raise XPeng’s technology output value as a software revenue trend emerges. Software revenue could gradually expand profit margins. 国内首个端到端大模型上车，25年实现城区高速智驾体验同步：24年5月20日小鹏汽车发布国内首个量产上车的端到端大模型，包括神经网络XNet、规控大模型XPlanner和大语言模型XBrain。其产品预期实现“2天迭代一次”，并在未来18个月内智驾能力提升30倍，在2025年实现城区智驾比肩高速智驾体验。我们认爲更广泛、高效的经销商渠道铺设和更有竞争力的成本有望在下半年开始逐步和新产品周期如X9、Mona等实现共振，我们持续看好小鹏下半年渠道和车型的年内的双下沉。 End-to-end vehicular LLM: XPeng mass deployed China’s first such in-vehicle large language model (LLM) on 20 May 2024, a step toward its synchronized urban highway smart driving experience slated for 2025E. The over-the-air operating system upgrade included regulatory control model XPlanner using neural network XNet and managed by its XBrain LLM. Based on iteration every two days, XPeng’s smart driving functionalities would increase 30x in the next 18 months, and help it advance toward an urban smart driving experience comparable to highway smart driving by 2025E. Building broader and more efficient dealer channels, as well as ensuring more competitive costs, could chime with new product cycles for X9 and Mona starting in 24H2E. The company’s dual growth trajectories in channels and models appear to have healthy prospects for H2E. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲公司销量增速拐点有望加速到来，且智能化竞争依然是24年的主旋律，前期具备领先优势的小鹏汽车有望持续占据席位，有望享受电动化渗透加速後的细分智能化需求提升和下沉市场需求。Mona新品发布後有望叠加前期渠道下沉和智能化领先的双重因素实现15万级别电动车市场的稀缺竞争力，有望打造年内继X9後的重点车型，同时後续新平台车型的毛利水平有望持续提升，建议持续关注公司新车型计划。 NEV outlook: smart driving prowess the main competitive differentiator in 2024E We anticipate the key competitive thrust for the NEV industry in 2024E will be smart driving prowess. Looking at XPeng’s sales growth trajectory and the NEV producer’s leading advantage as an early mover, it would likely maintain its market positioning and benefit from an increase in smart driving demand as well as lower-tier-city demand with EV penetration. XPeng is looking at a potential inflection point. With the launch of the new Mona model, its competitive positioning would increase in the RMB150,000 EV price band, combined with its advantages of early penetration and smart driving leadership. After X9, Mona could potentially be its key model this year. The year ahead could bring gross margin expansion as subsequent new platform models get released. We suggest that investors monitor its new model pipeline. New energy vehicle stocks: ·Li Autos: 2015 HK, BUY ·XPeng: 9868 HK, BUY (covered by the Autos desk) 风险提示：新车型销量不及预期；智能驾驶研发速度不及预期；新能源行业与政策不及预期等 Risks include: lower-than-expected sales of new car models; slower-than-expected smart driving R&D progress; worse-than-expected new energy business and industry policies. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）
郑重声明：悟空智库网发布此信息的目的在于传播更多信息，与本站立场无关，不构成任何投资建议。
