思摩爾國際: 美國FDA首批薄荷醇電子煙,公司有望受益合規市場發展

（以下内容从天风国际证券《思摩爾國際: 美國FDA首批薄荷醇電子煙,公司有望受益合規市場發展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Smoore International (6969 HK) 美国FDA首批薄荷醇电子烟，公司有望受益合规市场发展 US FDA nod to major customer’s menthol vapes expands compliant market prospects for Smoore BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：6月24日，思摩尔发布公告：公司客户NJOY的四款非菸草味电子烟产品通过FDA相关审查，获得了PMTA授权。 Smoore’s customer NJOY gets US FDA approval for four non-tobacco vape flavors Event: Smoore announced on 24 June that major customer NJOY has cleared regulatory clearance by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to sell four non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette products after filing premarket tobacco product applications (PMTA). 政策转变：美国FDA首次批准非菸草味电子烟产品，意义重大！ 据FDA官网消息，FDA正式宣布四款来自NJOY品牌的薄荷醇电子烟通过了相关审查，拿到了PMTA授权，它们分别是：NJOY ACE Pod Menthol 2.4%、NJOY ACE Pod Menthol 5%、NJOY DAILY Menthol 4.5% 和 NJOY DAILY EXTRA Menthol 6%。上述产品前两款爲NJOY旗下换弹式产品ACE的两款不同尼古丁含量的薄荷醇烟弹；後两款则是NJOY旗下不同尼古丁含量的薄荷醇一次性产品DAILY。 Policy change: the US FDA cleared a major hurdle on 21 June 2024 when it approved non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette products for the first time. The authority announced four menthol e-cigarettes under the NJOY brand have obtained PMTA authorization: Ace Pod Menthol 2.4%, Ace Pod Menthol 5%, Daily Menthol 4.5% and Daily Extra Menthol 6%. The pods refer to replaceable cartridges, while the latter two are disposable vapes, with each product indicating a different nicotine level. 这一消息的公布有着两大重要意义： 1）这是时隔742天后，FDA再次爲电子烟给出PMTA授权；据FDA官方数据库显示，上一次FDA给出电子烟的PMTA授权还要追溯到2022年6月10日的两款产品，也同样是来自NJOY品牌，爲两款菸草口味的一次性产品NJOY DAILY； 2）薄荷醇电子烟终於被FDA认可了其安全性，首次爲非菸草口味给出PMTA授权；同样据FDA官方数据显示此前已经给出的23个SKU的口味仅有菸草口味，并不包括任何非菸草口味。 TF takeaways: ·Back in favor: this round of e-cigarette PMTA approvals follows a 2-year hiatus after 10 June 2022, when the FDA authorized for sale two tobacco-flavored disposable vapes, also under the NJOY brand: Daily Rich Tobacco 4.5% and Daily Extra Rich Tobacco 6%. ·Non-tobacco-flavor liberation: we interpret the FDA nod as recognition of the reduced-harm role of menthol vapes as this is the first time the US authority has cleared PMTA for non-tobacco flavors. Prior to this, the 23 SKU flavors previously approved covered only tobacco flavors. 行业方面，此次爲FDA首次批准薄荷醇调味电子烟，标志着电子烟产品减害性得到了认可，未来符合技术及安全性要求的合规企业有望受益。 Compliant product potential with recognition of vaping’s reduced-harm role Industry milestone: we believe that recognition of the reduced-harm role of e-cigarettes expands market prospects for compliant companies that fulfill technical and safety requirements. 公司优势：公司供应所有NJOYLLC已获批产品，有望长期受益合规市场发展 此次4款授权产品均由公司代工，除此之外公司还参与多款其他获批产品代工。公司客户NJOYLLC已通过菸草产品上市前申请途径获10款新型菸草产品的营销许可令（包括1款NJOY ACE封闭式电子烟设备、5款NJOY ACE菸草口味及薄荷醇口味封闭式电子烟弹、4款NJOYDAILY菸草口味及薄荷醇口味一次性电子烟）。今年思摩尔均供应NJOY LLC已获批的这 10款产品。 Smoore’s competitive edge: as the supplier of all 10 of NJOY’s FDA-approved products, we expect Smoore will benefit from a growing compliant product market over the long term. It manufactures not just NJOY’s four newly authorized products but also many others. NJOY has PMTA approval to sell 10 new-tobacco products: 1 Ace closed-system vaping device, 5 Ace tobacco and menthol-flavored closed-system cartridges and 4 Daily tobacco and menthol-flavored disposable vapes. Smoore’s 2024 pipeline covers all 10 of NJOY’s approved products. 薄荷醇味产品较受欢迎，有望拉动公司销量增长。据CDC，2023年美国电子烟市场出货量中薄荷醇味产品占比约30%，占换弹式产品出货量约50%，是美国市场重点品类。公司作爲NJOY的供应商，有望充分受益。 Rise of menthol cartridges: we believe Smoore will ride the market trend as menthol-flavored new-tobacco products gain popularity and drive sales growth. Menthol-flavored products account for about 30% of total shipments in the US e-cigarette market in 2023, according to the CDC, with cartridge products accounting for about 50% of the shipments, representing a major category in the US market. As the NJOY supplier, Smoore is set to reap the full benefits of this market potential. 未来随着PMTA审核标准逐渐明确，审批速度可能加快，从而推动执法力度的加强，龙头品牌市占率有望继续提升。不合规产品可能会加速淘汰，市场竞争格局将逐步回归到良性状态。中长期来看，我们认爲美国电子烟市场的“类菸草化管理”大势所趋，监管趋严背景下大品牌、大公司的资源、技术储备可以应对不断提升的准入门槛和监管成本，龙头品牌的竞争力和市场占有率有望继续提升。 Rise of legal market benefits big players: we believe regulatory management of the US vaping market similar to that of the tobacco market is inevitable. As PMTA criteria become more visible with stronger enforcements in the legal market, we expect the pace of vape product approvals will speed up in the future. Tightening regulations would raise entry barriers and compliance costs, which only big brands and corporations’ sizable resources and technological firepower would be able to handle. Hence, leading brands would increase competitiveness and market share as non-compliant producers exit the market. We believe this will shape a more benign competitive landscape over time. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与及投资建议 我们认爲，公司作爲提供雾化科技解决方案的全球领导者，壁垒优势不断凸显，预计产业链集中度或将加速提升。我们预计公司2024-2026年净利润爲16.64/20.71/24.62亿元，同比增长1.16%/24.46%/18.88%。基於公司的技术和龙头优势，维持“买入”评级。 Forecasts and risks We like Smoore’s global market edge in advanced atomization solutions and anticipate industry concentration will increase along the value chain. We forecast net profit of RMB1.66bn/2.07bn/2.46bn in 2024/25/26E, up 1.16/24.46/18.88%. We maintain our BUY rating in view of the company’s technological and market positioning advantages. 风险提示：新型菸草政策变动风险，美国FDA监管变动风险，销售不及预期风险，消费者拓展速度不及预期风险，公司产能建设不及预期风险，新技术开发不及预期风险，价格变动风险，汇率风险。 Risks include: new-tobacco policy changes; US FDA regulatory changes; lower-than-expected sales; slower-than-expected consumer take-up; worse-than-expected production capacity buildout; worse-than-expected new technology development; pricing changes; and FX risks. 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