美團-W: 收入利潤均超預期,新業務虧損持續收窄

（以下内容从天风国际证券《美團-W: 收入利潤均超預期,新業務虧損持續收窄》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Meituan (3690 HK) 收入利润均超预期，新业务亏损持续收窄 24Q1E results takeaways: revenue and profit better than expected; losses from new businesses narrowed further BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 整体业绩：24Q1盈利表现超市场一致预期 美团24Q1收入732.8亿元，超彭博一致预期6.0%；EBIT 52.1亿元，超彭博一致预期25.2%。调整後净利润约74.9亿元，超彭博一致预期25.4%。分业务来看，核心本地商业收入546.3亿元，超彭博一致预期7.7%；新业务收入186.5亿元，超彭博一致预期2.3%。 核心本地商业：24Q1收入端和利润端均超预期 24Q1收入546.3亿元，其中配送服务收入210.7元，佣金收入200.3亿元，在线营销收入103.1亿元。24Q1经营利润97.0亿元，超彭博一致预期14.9%。 24Q1E revenue and profit above expectations; new business losses narrowed Key metrics: Meituan posted unaudited 24Q1E results earlier this month with revenue at RMB73.28bn (6.0% better than Bloomberg consensus (BBG)), EBIT at RMB5.21bn (25.2% above BBG) and adjusted net profit at RMB7.49bn (25.4% above BBG). Segmentally, core local commerce operations generated revenue of RMB54.63bn (7.7% above BBG), while new businesses generated RMB18.65bn (2.3% above BBG). Core business: core revenue amounted to RMB54.63bn in 24Q1E, including RMB21.07bn from food and grocery delivery services, RMB20.03bn from commissions and RMB10.31bn from online marketing services. Operating profit came to RMB9.70bn, outperforming BBG by 14.9%. 餐饮外卖：年度交易用户数量和交易频率均显著增加。公司在产品、营销和供应链方面优化运营：1）推出“品牌卫星店”以提升知名连锁餐厅的效率；2）将“拼好饭”覆盖范围扩大到更多城市，“拼好饭”日订单量在24Q1创下新高；3）改善“神抢手 ”供应，完善网络营销策略4）节假日期间开展营销活动，刺激消费需求，提供多种优惠券套餐和折扣推广大热产品。 Segmental perspectives: strategic and operational improvements F&B delivery: the number of annual transaction users and transaction frequency jumped in the first quarter as Meituan optimized its products, marketing and supply chain: ·It launched a satellite kitchen initiative to help increase the delivery efficiency of well-known chain restaurants. ·Expanded coverage of its Pin Hao Fan group-purchase service to more cities in the mainland and an improved order dispatch system led to a new high in daily order volume in 24Q1E. ·The Shen Qiang Shou initiative expanded supply with more offerings from popular chain restaurants and refined its online marketing strategy. ·The company stimulated demand and maximized holidays with enhanced marketing activities, such as coupon packages and discounts to promote popular products. 美团闪购：24Q1交易用户数量大幅增加，交易频率实现高增长。春节期间，酒水饮料、节日礼品和日用品等品类的 GTV 均录得显著增长。商户在平台上投放广告意愿增强，公司也与品牌和商户合作共同推出促销活动。公司继续拓展新的供应业态，截至24Q1末，公司拥有约 7,000 家美团闪电仓，订单占比进一步提升。美团闪电仓加快在低线市场的线上渗透，品类不断扩大。 Instashopping: the number of transaction users shot up in 24Q1E and transaction frequency rose sharply. Gross transaction value (GTV) in categories such as wines and other beverages, holiday gifts and daily necessities recorded strong growth during the Chinese New Year holiday period. Merchant willingness to place advertisements on the platform increased as Meituan cooperated with brands and merchants to launch promotional activities. The company continued to expand new supply formats. It currently has about 7,000 Meituan InstaMarts as of end-24Q1, whose orders grew as a proportion of total orders in the quarter. Meituan InstaMarts expanded product categories and accelerated their online penetration in low-tier-city markets. 到店酒旅：到店业务方面，公司提高营销能力，丰富内容产品。公司在节假日期间推出了专门的直播活动。美团平台直播扩展到更多地区，并进一步提高了直播频率。此外，公司在全国范围内推行直营模式，进军低线市场。公司积极吸纳低线市场的商户，包括网络名店、连锁店和本地特色店，并爲他们提供高效的运营解决方案和营销工具。酒店和旅遊方面，24Q1国内酒店客房间夜数和 GTV 均实现强劲的同比增长。公司继续加强平台供应、定价、产品能力和营销策略。小衆目的地的业绩表现强劲，增长速度超过行业平均水平。24Q1公司巩固低星级酒店的市场份额，同时在高星级酒店领域也取得了进展。我们认爲美团到店业务的积累在於强大的商户数基础以及与线下流量强相关的找店心智。 In-store, hotels and travel: ·In-store: Meituan improved marketing and enhanced product quality. It launched special livestreams during holidays. Its livestream platform expanded to more regions, along with higher broadcast frequency. The company widened its direct sales model nationwide and entered low-tier-city markets. The merchants it added in low-tier-city markets include online famous stores, chain stores and local specialty stores, where Meituan provides efficient operating solutions and marketing tools. In our view, the in-store business is driven by a strong merchant base and the company’s store-finding strategy based on offline footfall. ·Hotels and travel: hotel room nights and GTV in the Chinese market both achieved strong yoy growth in 24Q1E. The company strengthened platform supply, pricing, product capabilities and marketing strategies. Niche travel destinations did particularly well with growth rates that outperformed the industry average. The company entrenched its market share in low-star hotels and made some progress in the high-star hotel segment. 新业务：24Q1经营亏损同比收窄至27.6亿元。 24Q1新业务收入186.5亿元；经营亏损27.6亿元，好於彭博一致预期14.7%。运营利润率连续改善，爲负 14.8%。 New businesses: segmental revenue amounted to RMB18.65bn in 24Q1E; with an operating loss of RMB2.76bn, 14.7% better than BBG. Operating margin improved at negative 14.8%. 美团优选：完善业务策略，更加注重运营提升和高质量增长：提高加价率；加强仓库运营的同时降低每件商品的平均履约成本；提高营销效率。运营亏损环比和同比均大幅收窄。展望未来，公司将进一步提高运营效率，加强产品选择和履行方面的能力。 Meituan Select: operating loss narrowed sharply in both qoq and yoy terms, as the company improved business strategies and focused on operational improvements and better-quality growth: ·It increased goods’ markup rates ·It strengthened warehouse operations while reducing the average fulfillment cost of each item ·It improved marketing efficiency. Looking ahead, Meituan plans to improve operational efficiency and strengthen its capabilities in product selection and fulfillment. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：美团的核心竞争力在於强大的商户基础以及积累数十年的用户的真实评价，现阶段来看自身护城河依然稳固。现阶段来看，外卖业务壁垒稳固，外部竞争格局逐步清晰，未来美团核心本地商业盈利能力有望持续加强。考虑到本季度美团收入端和利润端均超预期，新业务亏损持续收窄下盈利能力提升，我们预测美团2024-2026年收入分别爲3292/3809/4293亿元（前值3167/3773/4277亿元），净利润（Non-IFRS）分别爲364/530/650亿元（前值328/472/542亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks We believe that Meituan continues to hold a strong competitive advantage due to a strong merchant base and decades of real user reviews. It has a firm lead in the F&B delivery business, in our view. With macro factors set to become more visible, we expect Meituan’s core local commerce profitability will continue to strengthen in the future. In view of its better-than-expected total revenue and profit in Q1E, and a profitability improvement in new businesses, which narrowed losses, we nudged up our revenue forecast for Meituan to RMB329.2bn/380.9bn/429.3bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB316.7bn/377.3bn/427.7bn) and non-IFRS net profit to RMB36.4bn/ 53.0bn/65.0bn (previously RMB32.8bn/47.2bn/ 54.2bn). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：外卖增速放缓；本地生活服务竞争加剧；线下消费恢复持续性存在不确定性；新业务减亏节奏存在不确定性。 Risks include: slowing food delivery growth rates; intensifying competition in local services; uncertainty of a sustainable offline consumption recovery; and uncertainty of the loss-reduction trend in the new businesses. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）