拼多多: 24Q1業績:利潤顯著超市場預期,展現強盈利能力

（以下内容从天风国际证券《拼多多: 24Q1業績:利潤顯著超市場預期,展現強盈利能力》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Pinduoduo (PDD US) 24Q1业绩：利润显著超市场预期，展现强盈利能力 24Q1E results takeaways: drilling down expenses helped raise profits substantially above market expectations BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q1业绩要点：收入端及利润端增长均超市场预期 公司公布24Q1业绩。2024Q1公司营业收入同比增长130.7%至868亿元，高於彭博一致预期13%；拆分来看，公司24Q1营销服务收入爲425亿元，同比增长55.8%，超彭博一致预期13%；交易服务收入同比增长326.8%至444亿元，超彭博一致预期17%，我们预测主要系海外业务Temu的快速发展；公司24Q1 Non-GAAP调整後净利润同比增长202.2%至306.02亿元，超彭博一致预期97%，Non-GAAP净利率爲35.3%，我们认爲主要系费率的有效控制和经营效率的提升。 24Q1E revenue and profit growth both exceeded market expectations Revenue: Pinduoduo’s (PDD) unaudited 24Q1E results show revenue jumped 130.7% yoy to RMB86.8bn, 13% better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast (BBG). We attribute this mainly to rapid growth at Temu, its international business. A breakdown indicates: ·Marketing services contributed RMB42.5bn, up 55.8% yoy and 13% above BBG; and ·Trading services contributed RMB44.4bn, up 326.8% yoy and 17% better than BBG. Net earnings: adjusted non-GAAP net profit in 24Q1E increased 202.2% yoy to RMB30.60bn, 97% better than BBG, with non-GAAP net margin at 35.3%. We attribute more effective expense control and better operating efficiency. 注重高质量发展，公司有望持续获取市场份额 我们认爲公司低价心智稳固，商品供应链持续完善，有望带动用户购物频次提升，整体主站GMV增速或超行业平均水平；同时我们认爲随着全站推广商家渗透率的提升以及百亿补贴占比稳步提升有望带动整体货币化率的提升。公司坚持高质量发展战略，主要体现在1）高质量消费，持续强化“多实惠+好服务”的能力；2）高质量供给，深入制造业和农业产业带，优化供应链效率；3）高质量生态，建立百亿生态专项，向优质商户和商品倾斜平台资源，大力扶持优质商户、中小企业和农户，提升平台治理能力。我们认爲随着公司供应链及运营能力不断加强，平台生态建设日趋完善，人均GMV或有所提升，公司仍有望获取市场份额。 Chinese business: quality growth strategy could bring market share gains Bargain shopping: PDD’s low-priced mindset presents a durable business proposition, in our view, and coupled with a continually improving product supply chain, we anticipate user shopping frequency will increase and total GMV growth on its main Chinese business could exceed the industry average. In addition, we expect total monetization will increase as merchant promotions deepen penetration across the board and the RMB10bn subsidy initiative expands in proportion. Quality growth trends: PDD implements a quality growth strategy in these areas: ·Consumption: stretching the consumer dollar with better benefits and services ·Supply: the company deepens engagement with the manufacturing and agricultural belts to optimize supply chain efficiency ·Ecosystem: under the RMB10bn special project ecosystem, PDD allocates platform resources to premium merchants and merchandise to step up support for premium merchants, SMEs and farmers, and enhance platform governance. As PPD strengthens supply chain and operational capabilities alongside its platform ecosystem buildout, we believe per-capita GMV and market share will increase. 各项费率显著下降，坚持ROI爲导向 24Q1公司各项费用率均有优化，本季度公司销售费用率同比下降16.2pcts至27%；研发费用率同比下降3.3pcts至3.4%，管理费用率同比下降0.1pcts至2.1%，整体费用率显著下降，经营杠杆改善明显。 Profitability: the company drilled down expense ratios and improved ROI in 24Q1E; various expense ratios improved and led to a lower total expense ratio and much better operating leverage: ·Sales expense ratio fell 16.2ppt yoy to 27%; ·R&D expense ratio reduced 3.3ppt yoy to 3.4%; and ·Administrative expense ratio dipped 0.1ppt yoy to 2.1%. TEMU快速拓展站点，打开公司长期增长空间 Temu采取“重大节日营销+社交裂变”的方式，持续扩大用户基数；根据TEMU官网，目前TEMU已开通70个国家的站点，TEMU在多地区拓展速度超预期，或带来全年超预期GMV和收入增长。同时公司於3月15日推出半托管模式，通过将海外仓储、货运及退换责任转嫁到商家，有望持续改善海外UE模型，丰富大件SKU的供给，考虑到半托管模式或助力海外亏损收窄，我们预计全年公司Non-GAAP净利润有望保持高速增长。 Cross-border ecommerce: Temu expands foreign sites for long-term growth Vast foreign network: Temu, PDD’s international business, employs marketing festivals and social segmentation to expand its user base. It currently operates sites in 70 countries, according to company data. Temu’s growth escalation across many regions has exceeded expectations, and we believe GMV and revenue growth could outperform expectations through the year. Better UE: the company launched a semi-entrustment business model on 15 March, which transferred the responsibilities for foreign warehousing, freight and returns to merchants. This aimed to improve the user experience (UE) model and enrich the supply of large SKUs in foreign markets. Considering the semi-entrustment model could help narrow foreign market losses, we expect non-GAAP net profit will maintain high growth through 2024E. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到公司电商主业持续获取市场份额，海外TEMU多区域上线增长或超预期，或带来收入增量，我们上调公司2024-2025年营业收入分别至4253/5656亿元，同比增长71.7%/33%；考虑到公司主站利润持续增长且海外UE模型有望改善，我们上调2024-2025年Non-GAAP净利润至1403/1867亿元，同比增长106.7%/33%， 对应6月19日收盘价PE分别爲10X/8X，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Factoring potential incremental revenues as Chinese ecommerce expands market share and Temu’s foreign market expansion exceeds expectations, we upgrade our revenue projections to RMB425.3bn/565.6bn in 2024/25E, implying growth at 71.7%/33%. For net earnings, we took into account the impact of potential Chinese market profit growth and Temu’s improving UE model and raised our non-GAAP net profit to RMB140.3bn/186.7bn for 2024/25E. This implies 106.7%/33% growth in those years, corresponding to PE of 10x/8x (based on the closing price on 19 June). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济不确定性；行业竞争加剧；主站收入增速放缓，货币化率提升不及预期；海外业务开展不及预期；多多买菜业务盈利进度不及预期；海外监管存在不确定性。 Risks include: macroeconomic uncertainties; intensifying competition; slowing revenue growth and lower-than-expected monetization growth in the Chinese business; international business growth failing to meet expectations; Duoduo Maicai profitability failing to meet expectations; and foreign regulatory uncertainties. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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