居然之家: 巨擘新生,數字化+國際化領航成長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《居然之家: 巨擘新生,數字化+國際化領航成長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Easyhome New Retail Group (000785 CH) 巨擘新生，数字化+国际化领航成长 Home furnishing giant’s digital business restructure and global push expand growth potential BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 零售卖场：现金流爲王，强者恒强 强现金流+轻资产重运营，打造泛家居服务生态。直营+加盟模式并举进行卖场连锁扩张，其中一二线城市以直营门店爲主，低线级城市加盟加速下沉。截至23年末直营/加盟卖场数量分别爲86家/328家，其中轻资产模式卖场数量占比保持在96%左右。在轻资产、重运营模式下，公司经营坪效（2020-2023年直营卖场坪效CAGR爲6.2%）、资产周转率（23年爲0.25次）、ROE（23年爲6.6%）等运营指标均领先竞争对手。 此外，公司积极通过公域私域运营、直播矩阵打造、联合营销IP、数字化平台等方式聚合流量，通过提升“先行赔付”等提升消费者服务质量；23年创新提出固定租金和销售分成的“一店两制”招商模式，有利於突破传统固定租金模式下公司营业收入天花板。 Retail stores: cash-rich leading player continues to hold the market helm Direct-and-franchise model: Chinese home furnishing retail giant Easyhome is harnessing strong cash flows with asset-light and sturdy operations to build out its pan-home furnishing service ecosystem. Its dual direct sales and franchise model drives faster store network expansion, deploying the core direct sales business in China’s first and second-tier cities, and the franchised stores in lower-tier cities. Sturdy operations: Easyhome’s network counts 86 directly-run stores and 328 franchised stores as of end-2023. Its asset-light but operationally sturdy model currently covers about 96% of the stores. Their operational metrics outperform the competitors: ·6.2% CAGR operating sales per sq m over 2020-23 at directly-operated stores; ·0.25x asset turnover in 2023; and ·6.6% ROE in 2023. Profit sharing: to agglomerate user traffic, Easyhome utilizes an array of channels such as its public and private domain operations, livestream room matrix, joint IP marketing and digital platforms. Its advance indemnity compensation initiative raised customer service quality. And the innovative store investment model proposed last year (“one store with two systems”) ties fixed rent with sales profit sharing, which adds the potential to transcend the current revenue ceiling of the traditional fixed rent model. 数智化升级：以“洞窝”爲核心，三大数智平台赋能成长 公司率先在家居行业内开展数字化转型，通过收取平台服务费的方式有望赋能收入增长： 1.洞窝：家装家居数字化产业服务平台。2022-2023年销售净额从346亿元提升至974亿元，平台用户规模及单用户品类连带率水平持续提升，23年客单值、客单量均实现约10%增长。 2.居然设计家（原每平每屋设计家）：AI家装设计平台。截至2023年年末全球注册用户数量超1477万，同比增长19%；设计案例数超3268.6万，同比增长18.5%；模型数量超1244万，同比增长27.4%。 3.居然智慧家：智慧生活服务平台。2023年新开门店57家，销售额超44亿元，同比增长58.4%；截至2023年末互联互通合作品牌超200家，接入设备超12万， APP注册用户数超20万。 Digitalization: Doorverse platform anchors three digital systems in growth drive Easyhome took the lead to drive digital transformation of the home furnishing industry, which is paying off in platform service fees and we expect this will lift revenue growth: Doorverse: the company’s digital home decoration and furnishing service platform saw net sales shoot up from RMB34.6bn in 2022 to RMB97.4bn in 2023. Platform users and per-user category linkage are increasing, and average order value and volume both increased about 10% in 2023. Homestyler: formerly known as Designer for Every Home, Homestyler, the company’s AI-enabled home decoration design platform, has 14.77m registered users worldwide as of end-2023, up 19% yoy. The platform hosts 32.69m design projects, up 18.5% yoy, and 12.44m models, up 27.4% yoy. Easyhome IOT: the company’s smart living service platform saw 57 new stores open in 2023, when sales surpassed RMB4.4bn, up 58.4%. It drove more than 200 interconnected collaborating brands, over 120,000 connected devices and over 200,000 registered app users as of end-2023. 加速国际化战略：落实国际化，加大走出去步伐 与国内市场激烈竞争形成鲜明对比是国际市场供给不足，我国家居产业链十分丰富，在头部企业引领之下，国产家居品牌出海将大有所爲。公司将以柬埔寨金边店爲试点，加快国际化布局，爲发展注入新引擎。 2024年完成澳门店及金边店开业，5年内完成东南亚大部分国家的实体店连锁布局。推进“洞窝”国际化，拓展家居跨境电商业务。在实体店和“洞窝”出海基础上，居然设计家、居然智慧家也将加速出海。 Internationalization strategy: stepping up pace in the global push The insufficient supply in the international market stands in sharp contrast to the heated supply competition in the Chinese market. In view of China’s burgeoning home furnishing supply chain, Chinese brands, led by the leading players, have enormous potential to expand overseas. Easyhome’s Cambodian store in Phnom Penh serves as a pilot project for its global buildout, which could lead to a new growth engine for the company. With the Phnom Penh and Macau stores slated to open in 2024E, Easyhome plans to build its physical store network across mostly Southeast Asian countries within 5 years. The push to internationalize Doorverse would expand the company’s cross-border ecommerce business. We believe the global expansion of its physical stores, along with that of Doorverse, Homestyler and Easyhome IOT, would accelerate the company’s global expansion. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持买入评级 公司系泛家居服务生态龙头，主业破局成长，数字化打造新增长曲线；此外组织结构持续按照S2B2C模式转型、实施精细化营销模式，经营调整成效有望逐渐显现。我们预计24-26年公司归母净利润分别爲14.5/15.9/17.4亿元（前值分别爲14.7/15.7/17.2亿元），对应PE分别爲12/11/10X。参考可比公司均值，给予公司24年18-19倍PE，对应目标价4.1-4.4元，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Easyhome’s pan-home furnishing service ecosystem has entrenched its industry leadership, in our view. While its core business continues to grow and break new ground, the focus on digitalization is adding new growth drivers. Easyhome is realigning its organizational structure to the supplier-to-business-to-customer model aka S2B2C. It is in the process of fine-tuning its marketing model and we believe the results of operational adjustments will gradually become apparent. We tweaked our forecasts and now expect net profit will come in at RMB1.45bn/1.59bn/1.74bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.47bn/1.57bn/1.72bn), corresponding to PE of 12x/11x/10x. Relative to the peer average, we assign to Easyhome a PE range of 18-19x in 2024E, implying a target price range of RMB4.10-4.40. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险，行业市场竞争加剧风险，新开卖场经营不及预期风险，家居卖场业务开发风险 Risks include: impact of macroeconomic volatility, intensifying competition; new stores performing below expectations; and risks related to home furnishing stores’ business development. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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