大勝達: 精品菸酒包效益顯現,期待新業務進展

（以下内容从天风国际证券《大勝達: 精品菸酒包效益顯現,期待新業務進展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging (603687 CH) 精品菸酒包效益显现，期待新业务进展 d/g to ACCUMULATE: post a lackluster 2023, we look to emerging profitability in premium packaging ACCUMULATE (from BUY) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2023年年报及24一季报。 24Q1收入4.67亿同增4.6%；归母0.18亿元同减10.1%； 23Q4收入5.44亿元，同减7.8%；归母净利0.13亿元，同减57.7%；23A收入20.14亿元，同减2.2%；归母净利0.89亿元，同减15.9%。 23年收入及业绩下降主要系市场消费不及预期、竞争加剧等原因导致瓦楞纸包装单价下降，毛利率下降所致。 2023年公司拟派发现金红利2656.69万元（含税），现金分红率30%。 23年毛利率17%，同增1pct；归母净利率4.4%，同增约-0.7pct 2023 revenue dipped 2% and net profit fell 16%; 24Q1E net profit down 10% yoy Key metrics: Shengda Packaging recently released final 2023 financial results and unaudited 24Q1E results: ·2023: the company generated revenue of RMB2.01bn (down 2.2%) and net profit of RMB89m (down 15.9%); 23Q4 revenue came to RMB544m (down 7.8% yoy) with net profit at RMB13m (down 57.7% yoy). ·24Q1E: revenue amounted to RMB467m (up 4.6% yoy) with net profit at RMB18m (down 10.1% yoy). Key factors: revenue and profit declines in 2023 were mainly due to lower-than-expected market consumption and intensifying competition among other reasons, which lowered corrugated packaging unit prices and reduced gross margin. 30% DPR: Shengda plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB26.57m (tax included) for 2023, which is a payout ratio of 30%. Profitability for 2023 ·Gross margin was at 17% (up 1ppt) and net margin at 4.4% (down 0.7ppt). ·Expense ratios: Shengda reduced costs and raised efficiency last year, which lowered total expense ratio by 0.03ppt to 10.8%. A breakdown shows: -Sales ratio: 1.8% (up 0.2ppt) -Admin ratio: 5.1% (up 0.5ppt) -Financial ratio: -0.2% (down 0.9ppt), mainly due to higher interest income. 分产品，23年瓦楞纸板收入13.5亿，同减14.4%，毛利率8.9%，同减1.4pct；高端酒包收入2.8亿元，同增31%，毛利率32.71%，同增2.3pct；精品烟包收入2.6亿，同增69.92%；毛利率28.11%，同增6.2pct。 Product revenue breakdown ·Corrugated cardboard generated revenue of RMB1.35bn in 2023 (down 14.4%), with gross margin at 8.9% (down 1.4ppt). ·High-end liquor packaging generated RMB280m revenue (up 31%) last year, with gross margin at 32.71% (up 2.3ppt). ·Premium cigarette packaging brought in revenue of RMB260m (up 69.92%) last year, with gross margin at 28.11% (up 6.2ppt). 做深大包装，做大精包装 2024年公司将持续深耕瓦楞纸包装业务，洞察市场形势，调整优化订单结构，公司将进一步加强和完善全球性布局，加快推进公司在东南亚、欧美区域的海外战略布局，持续提升公司的市场份额，深耕存量客户，拓展增量市场，在维护老客户的同时积极开拓新客户，通过技改设备更新技术。 高端酒包业务要持续加强市场开拓力度，稳步推进贵州仁怀酒包新工厂项目进度。面对更加复杂的白酒市场环境，公司将继续推进自动化进程，全员参与质量与工艺的革新创新整合，在确保大客户基础上并举计划与交货的紧密集合，管理费用的合理有效使用等方面进行大力度的提升措施。 2024 plans: add traction in large packaging and expand premium packaging Large packaging: to build out its corrugate packaging business, Shengda plans to gather insights into market dynamics so as to optimize its order mix in 2024. And to augment a global buildout, the company would accelerate its strategic push into Southeast Asia, Europe and the US. It hopes to incrementally expand its market by firming ties with current customers as well as win new ones. This would also entail updating its equipment to the latest technology. Premium packaging: in the high-end liquor packaging business, Shengda plans to strengthen market development and pace up progress at its new liquor packaging factory project in Renhuai, Guizhou. Recognizing that the liquor market is becoming increasingly complex, Shengda aims to deploy automated processes in which all employees are involved in innovation upgrades and the integration of quality with technology. It plans to take rigorous measures to integrate planning and deliveries for scale customers, while ensuring reasonable and effective management expenses. 做好新路径，作爲新质生产力助力上市公司高质量发展 针对新收购的荷兰Fornax B.V.项目，2024年1月已正式完成交割程序，通过组织架构调整，重新定位荷兰和国内子公司职能和分工，理顺管理架构，目前公司已经组建新的专业管理团队，逐步引入产业技术高端人才，全面开展经营管理工作，2024年新项目要重抓在手订单的项目交付和降本增效工作，打造更有竞争力的供应链，力争尽快改善荷兰项目当前的经营和财务状况实现盈利。 Netherlands project: quality growth roadmap and management target profit upturn Fornax BV, Shengda’s newly acquired Dutch company, completed its delivery process rework in January 2024 after going through organizational adjustments. This involved the repositioning of functions and division of labor between the Dutch and Chinese subsidiaries, while it streamlined the management structure. A professional management team was set up and elite industry technology talents brought in to handle comprehensive operations and management work. To deliver current orders, we reckon the new project will prioritize delivery, cost cuts and efficiency upgrades in 2024, as well as a more competitive supply chain. The key goal is to raise the unit’s operational and financial status as soon as possible to achieve profitability. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，调整爲“增持”评级 公司是国内领先的包装印刷综合解决方案专业供应商之一，是中国包装联合会认定的“中国纸包装龙头企业”之一，公司主要从事纸包装产品的研发、生产、印刷和销售，主要产品涵盖瓦楞纸箱、纸板、高端酒包、精品烟包、可降解纸浆环保餐具等，能爲客户提供涵盖包装方案设计、研发、检测、生产、库存管理、物流配送等环节的全方位纸包装解决方案。考虑到消费市场不及预期，我们调整盈利预测，预计24-26年归母净利分别爲1.34/1.67/2.02亿元（24年前值爲2.8亿元），EPS分别爲0.24/0.31/0.37元/股，对应PE分别爲33/26/22x。 Valuation and risks Shengda is recognized by the China Packaging Federation as a leading provider of integrated packaging and printing solutions. It covers paper packaging R&D, production, printing and sales. Its main products are corrugate boxes, cardboard, premium liquor packaging, premium cigarette packaging, as well as environmentally-friendly degradable pulp tableware. Customers get comprehensive options to paper packaging solutions: packaging design, R&D, testing, production, inventory management, logistics and distribution. To reflect a weaker-than-expected consumer market, we adjusted our forecast and now expect net profit to come in at RMB134m/167m/202m in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB280m in 2024E), implying EPS of RMB0.24/0.31/0.37 and 33x/26x/22x PE. We downgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from BUY). 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；市场需求波动风险；宏观经济周期波动的风险；公司扩大业务品类导致的管理风险；项目并购及商誉减值风险 Risks include: raw material price fluctuation; demand volatility; macroeconomic cycle fluctuations; management risks related to business category expansion; project M&A risks; and goodwill impairment risks. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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