志邦家居: 23Q4靚麗,整家戰略成效顯現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《志邦家居: 23Q4靚麗,整家戰略成效顯現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zbom Home Collection (603801 CH) 23Q4靓丽，整家战略成效显现 2023E preliminary results: Zbom’s whole-home strategy is paying off with Q4E maintaining strong growth BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布2023年度业绩快报 23Q4拟收入21.9亿，同增16.9%；归母2.5亿，同增10.9%；扣非归母2.2亿，同增11.5%； 23年拟收入61.2亿，同增13.5%；归母6.0亿，同增10.8%，扣非归母5.5亿，同增10.1%；预计剔除减值影响後归母净利润增速更高。 2023E preliminary results: net profit up 11%, likely higher ex-impairments Zbom released 2023E preliminary results: ·23Q4E revenue came to RMB2.19bn, up 16.9% yoy; with net profit at RMB250m, up 10.9% yoy and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB220m, up 11.5% yoy. ·2023E revenue rose 13.5% to RMB6.12bn, while net profit lifted 10.8% to RMB600m and ex-nonrecurring net profit grew 10.1% to RMB550m; excluding impairment impacts, net profit growth would have been higher. 整家赋能零售，大宗稳健，海外增量乐观 1）零售：公司围绕消费者“装修一个家”的需求爲核心，进行整家商业模式的战略部署，布局南方市场，通过品类开拓、整装布局、拎包社区等方式多维度挖掘存量，同时以新零售尝试、整家联单提单值等创新方式积极探索新的营销增长点，整家战略驱动下零售增长稳健； 2）大宗：公司通过加强落实系统性风险管控体系，有效调整客户结构，积极培育创新业务，我们预计衣柜及木门放量明显，大宗业务保持稳健有序的发展； 3）海外：公司以国内市场爲依托，以国际市场爲导向，进一步拓展海外业务布局。23年11月公司在泰国召开发布会，凭藉强大的供应链能力、智能制造技术，目前海外业务已进入全球几十个国家和地区，拥有近5000+全球门店，後续增量展望乐观。 Whole-home strategy boosts retail and export business; stabilizes volumes Retail: mindful of consumer decoration demand for the entire home, Zbom strategically fleshes out a whole-home business model and is building out the southern China market. It taps current resources to develop full-suite product categories for entire-home installations and turnkey housing estates. Zbom is also exploring catalysts such as new retail markets, while enhancing the value of whole-home bills of lading. Its innovations have led to stable retail growth. Bulk business: Zbom enforced its systemic risk management and control system, improved its customer mix and cultivated innovative businesses. We expect strong growth in wardrobe and wooden door sales volumes, while bulk business maintains a stable and healthy uptrend. Exports: while China is the company’s main market, it is also oriented to the international market to build up its export business. It held a press conference in Thailand in November 2023, for instance. Its foreign business, which provides a strong supply chain and smart manufacturing technologies, covers dozens of markets around the world through more than 5,000 stores. We are bullish about its future export growth. 降本增效成效渐显，利润率提升稳健 23Q1-3公司毛利率爲38.4%（同比+1.64pct），若剔除减值影响归母净利率提升明显。公司始终注重自身专业及运营管理能力提升，在研产供销及数字化建设等方面匹配资源，继续加大研发投入，重视设计软件、新零售、智能家居等领域的创新探索，深入推进供应链变革及降本增效措施落地，注重合规治理，通过组织革新、流程优化、制度完善等方式促进运营管理效率提升，降本增效成效逐步显现，我们预计利润率有望维持10%。 Profit margin uptrend: cost curb and efficiency boost effects are coming through Gross margin was 38.4% in 23Q1-3 (up 1.64ppt yoy); excluding impairments, net margin would have greatly increased. In prioritizing professional and operational management, Zbom streamlines resources in research, production, supply and marketing. Its digitalization restructure saw heavier investments into R&D, alongside innovations and explorations into design software, new retail markets, smart homes and other areas. It stepped up supply chain reforms and implemented measures to reduce costs and lift efficiency. It ensured compliance governance and pushed operational management efficiency improvements through organizational innovations, and process and system improvements. The results of these cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts are gradually coming through, so we expect it will maintain its profit margin at 10%. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 公司积极推动多品类融合及整家销售，南下布局及海外市场有望打开成长空间，降本增效成效显现，根据业绩快报，同时考虑到市场开拓及海外市场持续投入，盈利能力保持稳定，略下调前期预测，我们预计23-25年归母爲6.0/6.9/7.9亿元（前值爲6.1/7.2/8.7亿元），EPS分别爲1.38/1.59/1.81元/股，对应PE爲12/11X/9X，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Zbom is driving a strategy of multi-category integration and whole-home sales. We expect its southern China and foreign market buildout will expand growth headroom, while cost reduction and efficiency enhancement results are coming through. In view of the company’s preliminary earnings report, we have taken our forecast down a notch after considering its market buildout and investments into foreign markets, as well as its stable profitability. We forecast net profit at RMB600m/690m/790m in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB610m/720m/870m), with EPS at RMB1.38/1.59/1.81 and corresponding to 12x/11x/9x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：地产下滑风险；国内需求复甦不及预期风险；减值风险；海外市场拓展不及预期风险；业绩快报仅爲初步核算结果，具体数据以公司正式发布的2023年年报爲准。 Risks include: real estate market decline; less-than-expected Chinese demand recovery; impairments; and less-than-expected foreign market expansion. Note: the earnings report provides preliminary accounting data and is subject to the release of Zbom’s final 2023 results report. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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