嘉益股份: 業績符合預期,出口鏈核心景氣標的

（以下内容从天风国际证券《嘉益股份: 業績符合預期,出口鏈核心景氣標的》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container (301004 CH) 业绩符合预期，出口链核心景气标的 2023E preliminary results: performance in line with expectations; booming key export business BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司披露2023业绩快报 23Q4收入5.5亿同增29%，归母净利1.6亿同增52%，扣非後归母净利1.4亿同增38%； 公司23Q1-4收入增速分别爲32%/50%/52%/29%；归母净利增速分别61%/106%/86%/52%。 23A收入17.8亿同增41%，归母净利4.7亿同增74%，扣非後归母净利4.7亿同增72%； 23Q4归母净利率28.9%同增4.3pct；2023年归母净利率26.6%同增5pct。 2023E preliminary results: net profit up 52% yoy in Q4E; up 74% in the full year Cayi Vacuum Containers released a preliminary 2023E earnings report: ·23Q4E revenue was RMB550m, up 29% yoy; net profit was RMB160m, up 52% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB140m, up 38% yoy; meanwhile net margin was RMB28.9%, up 4.3ppt yoy. ·23Q1/2/3/4E revenue growth rates were 32%/50%/52%/29%; and net profit growth rates were 61%/106%/86%/52%. ·2023E revenue amounted to RMB1.78bn, up 41%; with net profit at RMB470m, up 74%, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB470m, up 72%; while net margin was 26.6%, expanding 5ppt. 公司业绩增长主要系： 1、坚持以客户爲中心，深化与核心客户合作，提升服务水平； 2、终端市场持续向好，客户订单及生产规模化效应较爲显著；此外，报告期内汇率及主要原材料市场价格变动对公司业绩也有一定的正向影响； 3、公司内部管理持续精益化，通过投入智能化产线、推进数字化和精益生产等措施不断提升生产和管理效率，提高经营质量和服务水平。 2023 performance growth catalysts: customer ties; better macros; lean mindset The company attributes the following factors to its performance growth in 2023: ·Customer-centered approach: the company deepened ties with key customers and improved service levels. ·Macro improvements: with improvements in end-markets, customer orders and production scale have escalated; other macro changes included favorable changes in FX and major raw material prices. ·Lean management: Cayi maintained a lean management model with implementations that included investment into smart production lines, pushing digitalization and lean production, which raised production and management efficiency, operating quality and service levels. 公司核心客户Stanley深度放大Tiktok热门产品逻辑，有望打开成长天花板；公司作爲核心供应链有望共享成长，积累经验逐步实现产品拓展。 美国保温杯使用功能和场景发生变化，过去是耐用功能性单品，现在终端品牌引领行业向潮流时尚、运动环保方向发展，消费者使用量增加，提高行业的天花板。目前头部品牌商在加大推广力度，提升品牌影响力。下游客户集中度在提升，也提高对上游供应链要求，驱动供应商集中度提升，保温杯从过去渠道品牌向品类品牌转变，客户需要更好的产品打造更好的品牌。公司在保温杯领域深耕，坚持主业，服务好大客户，与大客户一起成长。 Thermos cups: Cayi positioned for expanding market potential on trend shifts Stanley’s success: Cayi’s core customer Stanley leveraged the TikTok appeal and its products turned viral, which we expect will expand growth prospects for Cayi as part of Stanley’s main supply chain. The company would share in Stanley’s growth as it amasses experience and expands its product portfolio. Thermos turns trendy: functions and use scenarios for thermos cups have changed in the US and their single-purpose durable and functional role has evolved as end-market brands have driven a shift in developmental direction toward fashion, sports and environmental sustainability. On increasing consumer usage, industry potential continues to expand and leading brands are stepping up promotional plans to raise their brand profile. With the increasing concentration of downstream customers, their requirements for the upstream supply chain have also risen, driving a corresponding increase in supplier concentration. Category products: once driven by channel brands, thermos cups have evolved to become category brand products. As such, brand customers must enhance their products to raise their brand profile. In this regard, Cayi’s deep traction in the thermos cup industry positions it for the current trends. By maintaining its core business focus and serving major customers well, we expect it will grow in tandem with them. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入“评级 根据业绩快报，我们调整盈利预测，我们预计公司23-25年归母净利分别爲4.72/5.76/7.06亿，EPS分别爲4.54/5.54/6.79元/股，对应PE分别爲15/12/10X，维持“买入“评级。 Valuation and risks We have adjusted our forecast based on Cayi’s preliminary results report and now project net profit of RMB472m/ 576m/706m in 2023/24/25E, with EPS at RMB4.54/5.54/6.79, corresponding to 15x/12x/10x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：海外需求复甦不及预期；核心客户份额下降风险；产能扩张不及预期；业绩快报是公司初步测算的结果，具体准确的财务数据以年报爲准。 Risks include: a weaker-than-expected foreign demand recovery; declining core customer market share; less-than-expected production capacity expansion. Note: estimates are based on preliminary results and subject to the company’s release of its final 2023 earnings report. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）