浙江正特:Q3業績短期承壓,期待戶外星空蓬表現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《浙江正特:Q3業績短期承壓,期待戶外星空蓬表現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Zhengte (001238 CH) Q3业绩短期承压，期待户外星空蓬表现 d/g to ACCUMULATE: Q3 dented by short-term pressures; star tents anchor a defensive bestseller strategy ACCUMULATE (from BUY) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 23Q3收入1.67亿，同减26.5%，归母净利-0.08亿。 公司23Q1-3收入8.87亿，同减20.0%，23Q1/Q2/Q3收入及同比增速3.51亿（yoy-9.4%）/3.69亿（yoy-25.4%）/1.67亿（yoy-26.5%）； 23Q1-3归母净利0.34亿，同减37.5%，23Q1/Q2/Q3归母净利及同比增速0.23亿（yoy+25.9%）/0.19亿（yoy-58.0%）/-0.08亿（yoy+16.3%）；其中，23Q1-3同比变动主要系利润总额减少所致。 23Q1-3扣非归母净利0.53亿，同减49.3%，23Q1/Q2/Q3扣非归母净利分别为0.19亿/0.35亿/-0.01亿（yoy-103.24%）；23Q1-3非经常性损益-0.19亿，同增62.0%，主要系处置外汇远期合约取得的投资收益。 23Q3 revenue arrived at RMB167m, down 26.5% yoy, with a net loss of RMB8m Top line: Zhengte posted 23Q1-3 revenue of RMB887m, down 20.0% yoy: RMB351m in Q1 (down 9.4% yoy); RMB369m in Q2 (down 25.4% yoy); and RMB167m in Q3 (down 26.5% yoy). Bottom line ·Net profit came to RMB34m in 23Q1-3, down 37.5% yoy: RMB23m in Q1 (up 25.9% yoy); RMB19m in Q2 (down 58.0% yoy) and net loss of RMB8m in Q3 (up 16.3% yoy). The sharp yoy slide over Q1-3 was mainly due to a decline in total profit. ·Ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB53m in 23Q1-3, down 49.3% yoy, comprising RMB19m/35m/-1m in Q1/2/3 (down 103.24% yoy). ·Non-recurring loss was RMB19m in 23Q1-3, up 62.0% yoy, mainly due to investment income from the disposal of FX forward contracts. 23Q1-3毛利率26.4%同增6.3pct，净利率3.3%同减1.4pct 23Q1-3销售费用率10.1%，同增4.6pct，主要系海外运营团队广告费及平台佣金增加所致；管理费用率（包含研发费用率）11.5%，同增3.9pct，主要系谘询费增加所致；财务费用率-2.3%，同增1.3pct，主要系汇率变化、人民币贬值所致。另外，23Q1-3经营活动产生的现金流净额同增47.5%，主要系存货管理能力/应收账款管理能力提升所致。 Q1-3 gross margin at 26.4%, up 6.3ppt yoy; net margin at 3.3%, down 1.4ppt yoy ·Sales expense ratio in 23Q1-3 was 10.1%, up 4.6ppt yoy, mainly due to an increase in advertising fees and platform commissions for foreign operation teams ·Administrative expense ratio (including R&D) was 11.5%, up 3.9ppt yoy, mainly due to an increase in consulting fees. ·Financial expense ratio was -2.3%, up 1.3ppt yoy, mainly due to FX changes and depreciation of the RMB. ·Net cash flow from operating activities in 23Q1-3 increased 47.5% yoy, mainly due to better inventory management and accounts receivable management. 头部客户占比逐步提升，自主品牌进军欧美市场 公司头部客户销售较为稳定，如沃尔玛、好市多、家乐福、JJA等。近几年，公司年销售额百万美元以上的优质客户有明显增长，公司产能会优先满足这些批量大、订单集中的头部客户。部分有定制化需求、订单批量较小的客户，占比逐步减少。从市场潜力来看，北美的销售增长潜力相对较大。23H1公司收入北美销售占比超过50%，欧洲销售占比约30%。 公司大力发展跨境电商业务，自主品牌的相关产品在美国、欧洲通过亚马逊、Wayfair等电子商务平台进行销售，进一步扩大公司在海外市场的影响力。公司采用数字化、新媒体、消费领袖引领等手段，逐步宣贯、推广自主品牌。同时，公司还积极与部分线下经销商协商，促进线下渠道自主品牌的占有率，以提升自主品牌的知名度。 Large customers rise in proportion; Zhengte brands enter US, European markets Big customers: sales have been stable from Zhengte’s leading customers such as Wal-Mart, Costco, Carrefour and JJA. Customers with more than USD1m annual sales have increased in recent years and they are given production capacity priority on the basis of large-batch sales and order concentration. Likewise, customers with customized needs and small order quantities have shrunk in proportion. By market region, North America has strong sales growth potential, accounting for over 50% of revenue in 23H1, with European sales at about 30%. Pushing Zhengte brands: the company is making efforts to grow its cross-border ecommerce business. Products under its own brands are sold in the US and Europe through platforms like Amazon and Wayfair, raising its profile overseas. Zhengte deploys digital, new media, influencers and other means to promote its brands. It also negotiated with some offline distributors to increase the share of its brands in offline channels to enhance their visibility. 数智化建设卓有成效，差异化定价稳定毛利 公司重视产线的智能化、数字化建设，结合扩产要求，近几年持续投入了3亿元左右的建设资金，此外公司在加大研发投入的同时还对核心产品比如星空篷等形成了海外专利保护，以保证公司持续的竞争优势，海外知名度得到显著提升，是公司开拓市场的有利保障。 公司产品毛利率受市场竞争、美元汇率、大宗原材料的影响较大，钢铝材占成本比例超过50%。公司采用成本加成结合市场竞争进行针对性的产品定价，比如星空篷等在行业内相对具有垄断地位的产品，定价相对偏高；大批量、订单持续性较好的产品，定价相对较低；另外小客户毛利率相比大客户会略高。 Smart, digitized upgrades bring results; differentiated pricing aids gross profit Smart production: with the smart and digitized buildup of production lines and production expansion requirements, Zhengte’s construction investments amounted to about RMB300m in recent years. It increased investment into R&D as well and set up overseas patent protection for core products like star canopies to sustain its competitive advantage. Its growing brand reputation overseas provides Zhengte with leverage to expand its foreign markets. Shrinking margins: intensifying competition, an appreciating USD and bulk raw material costs have greatly affected Zhengte’s product gross margins. Steel and aluminum materials account for more than 50% of the cost. The company factors in cost-plus and competitive pricing for targeted products. For example, products that monopolize industry demand, such as its star canopies, have premium pricing, and those that come in large quantities and have better order continuity are priced lower. In general, its smaller customers provide slightly higher gross margins than the big customers. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，给予“增持”评级 公司实行爆品战略，在夯实遮阳制品产品领先的基础上，将适当拓展产品品类，以保证公司营业收入的可持续增长。并辅以爆品战略，在研发、精益制造上占领产品高地，以合理定价来吸引订单，争取产品领先、成本领先、品牌自主，从而保证公司合理的利润空间。考虑到公司业绩（23Q1-3公司收入同减20.0%，归母同减37.5%），我们调整盈利预测。预计公司23-25年归母净利分别为0.40/1.11/1.35亿元（前值分别为1.01/1.23/1.51亿元），EPS分别为0.37/1.01/1.23元/股，对应PE分别为78/28/23x。 Valuation and risks Zhengte’s bestseller product strategy seeks to entrench its leadership in sunshades while expanding other categories as appropriate for sustainable revenue growth. Hence, R&D and lean manufacturing are aimed at maintaining product competitiveness and pulling in orders through reasonable pricing, while it strives for product and cost leadership, and builds up proprietary brands for healthy profit margins. Taking recent results into account (Q1-3 revenue fell 20.0% yoy and net profit fell 37.5% yoy), we lowered our net profit for 2023/24/25E to RMB40m/111m/135m (previously RMB101m/ 123m/151m), with EPS at RMB0.37/1.01/1.23 and PE corresponding to 78/28/23x. Hence, we downgrade our rating on the stock to ACCUMULATE. 风险提示：市场竞争风险；汇率波动风险；知识产权侵权风险；原材料价格波动风险。 Risks include: market competition risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; intellectual property infringement risk; raw material price fluctuation risk. 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