學大教育:傳統業務優勢凸顯,全日制基地+職教穩步推進

（以下内容从天风国际证券《學大教育:傳統業務優勢凸顯,全日制基地+職教穩步推進》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group (000526 CH) 传统业务优势凸显，全日制基地+职教稳步推进 Upgrade to BUY: competitive edge sharpens on vocational business buildup and full-time strength BUY (from ACCUMULATE) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 传统业务优势巩固，奠定现金流基础 公司深耕个性化教育，首创一对一教育辅导模式与体系，积累丰富教学及运营管理经验，在行业中具备较强品牌优势；并在此基础之上延伸拓展为多形式、多场景、多产品的产品矩阵，制定以学生为中心教学培训体系与模式。 近两年，学大打造全日制学习基地，面向高考复读生、艺考生等学生群体，提供学习环境、个性化授课及高效学习体验，凭藉公司在系统、师资、课程、教研、运营、管理等方面积累的强大能力和资源，全日制已成为公司传统优势业务之一。 Company: Xueda hones competitive edge and firms cash flow fundamentals Personal coaching pioneer: personalized tutoring service provider Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology pioneered the one-to-one teaching model and system. Its coaching and operational management experience provides a strong brand advantage in the industry. From this basis, the company extended and expanded a product matrix encompassing multiple forms, user scenarios and products, by which it formulated student-centric teaching and training systems and models. Customer focus: Over the past two years, Xueda established a full-time learning center to cater to candidates retaking gaokao (the Chinese college entrance exam), art exam candidates and others. It provides a conducive environment, personalized coaching and efficient learning. In the full-time training business, the company holds an advantage on many levels: resources, systems, teachers, curriculum, teaching and research, and operations and management. 一方面，“双减”後风险抵抗能力较弱的小微培训机构或有清出，而高中培训需求仍保持相对刚性，以公司为代表的头部机构市占率或企稳向上；另一方面，疫後线下客流或有所恢复，带动相关课程收入复甦，支撑公司业务及现金流基本盘。 截至23H1末，公司拥有个性化学习中心近270所，全日制培训基地30余所，覆盖主要主要一二线城市、辐射三四线城市，并通过科技赋能，将单一线下或线上教学活动拓展为立体化的双线融合教学，升级智能化教学服务系统，提升线下校区业务能力。 Market factors: two key factors increase competitive positioning 1)After the 2021 double-curb policy to reduce homework and tutoring burdens, less resilient small and micro training players could be flushed out, while demand for high school training remains rigid, so market share of leading training players like Xueda will likely stabilize or grow. 2)Footfall recovery post-pandemic could boost a revenue recovery in courses to support Xueda’s business and cash flow fundamentals. Network: the company has nearly 270 personalized learning centers and over 30 full-time training bases located in its core market of first and second-tier cities as of end-23H1, even while it is making inroads into third and fourth-tier cities. Technological upgrades enabled the combination of offline and online teaching to integrated dual-mode coaching. It upgraded the smart teaching service system and improved business capabilities of its physical campuses. 紧跟政策切入中职教育，学校版图持续扩张 国家在职教领域不断出台政策，鼓励上市公司及行业龙头举办职业教育，推动职普融通及产教融合；公司顺应形式布局职教，充分依托公司多年来积累的教学教研知识体系、师资资源、技术优势、产业资源等打造职业院校学生的升学就业通道。 公司传统业务主要对接高中学生，因此以相似年龄段所面向的中职学校为切入点，具备相关客源、教育经验等优势，且业务间具有一定协同效应。截至22年末，公司已完成3所中职院校的收购及托管；23年8月公告将以自有资金出资持有渖阳双晟80%股权，间接持有渖阳国际商务学校80%的举办者权益，中职版图持续扩张。 随著院校招生逐步推进，在校生数量增长，职教业务有望贡献更多增量；同时公司继续加强中职院校的投资并购力度，伴随学校容量及利用率提升，以及各校运营逐步成熟、未来高职院校加入，业务盈利能力有望逐步增强。 Policy-driven buildout of vocational business and expanding footprint Industry-oriented teaching: Chinese vocational education policies have wooed listed companies and market leaders to integrate vocational teaching with production know-how. Xueda aligned its vocational education curriculum accordingly. It leveraged accumulated resources in teaching and research, teachers, technology and industry resources to carve out education and employment prospects for its vocational students. Relevant positioning: as Xueda’s traditional business targets high school students, its entry point is the secondary and vocational student age group. Its advantages include relevant customer sources and educational experience, along with business synergy. It had acquired and held in trust three vocational colleges as of end-2022. In August 2023, it announced it would use its own cash to invest into an 80% stake in Shenyang Shuangsheng, hence indirectly holding 80% of the organizer’s interest in Shenyang International Business School, which would expand its vocational school footprint. Profit expansion prospects: as school enrollment progresses and the number of campus students increases, we believe Xueda’s vocational education business will contribute more to revenue. Meanwhile, it is stepping up investment and M&A in vocational colleges, along with school capacity and utilization increases. Operations would gradually mature at each school and with incremental contributions from vocational colleges in the future, we expect profitability will rise over time. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 考虑到经过双减、疫情等扰动後，业务已基本调整完毕，在巩固个性化教育业务的同时，深入探索和布局职业教育、文化服务、教育数字化等领域；同时，供给侧出清需求持续旺盛，伴随规模效应逐步释放，我们上调公司盈利预测，预计23-25年归母分别为1.2、1.6、2亿（23-25年前值分别为1、1.3、1.6亿），EPS分别为1、1.3、1.6元/股（23-25年前值分别为0.8、1.1、1.3元/股），对应PE分别为27、20、16x。 Valuation and risks Through market disruptions like China’s dual-curb policies and the pandemic, Xueda’s business has gone through adjustments. It is consolidating vocational, cultural, digitalization and other business strengths to hone its personalized teaching advantage. In light of the supply market shakeout, strong demand and Xueda’s gradual scale-up, we raised our profit forecast to RMB120m/160m/200m in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB100m/130m/160m), with EPS at RMB1.0/1.3/1.6 (previously RMB0.8/1.1/1.3) and PE corresponding to 27/20/16x. We upgrade our rating to BUY (from ACCUMULATE). 风险提示：政策风险、新业务风险、管理风险。 Risks include: policy, new business and management risks. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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