完美世界:新一輪産品周期蓄勢待發,關注項目測試進展

（以下内容从天风国际证券《完美世界:新一輪産品周期蓄勢待發,關注項目測試進展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Perfect World (002624 CH) 新一轮産品周期蓄势待发，关注项目测试进展 The whys of weak profitability in H1; game beta releases could lead to a new phase of the product cycle BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2023半年报，23H1实现营收44.6亿元，yoy+13.7%；归母净利润 3.8亿元，yoy-66.6%；扣非後归母净利润2.9亿元，yoy-57.4%。单季度看，23Q2实现营收25.6亿元，yoy+42.4%，qoq+34.3%；归母净利润 1.4亿元，yoy-53.4%，qoq-42.6%；扣非後归母净利润0.8亿元，yoy-68.3%，qoq-60.2%。 H1 results: revenue rose 13.7% yoy; ex-nonrecurring net profit down 57.4% yoy Perfect World published its 23H1 financial results with revenue at RMB4.46bn, up 13.7% yoy, net profit at RMB380m, down 66.6% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB290m, down 57.4% yoy. Q2 contributed revenue of RMB2.56bn, up 42.4% yoy and up 34.3% qoq; with net profit at RMB140m, down 53.4% yoy and down 42.6% qoq, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB80m, down 68.3% yoy and down 60.2% qoq. 《天龙八部2》业绩有望於後期释放，新一轮産品周期逐步啓动 23H1公司游戏业务实现营收36.4亿元，yoy-2.5%，扣除去年同期出售欧美子公司影响後同比持平。扣除非经常性损益後的净利润预计爲4.3亿元，yoy-42.8%。我们判断主要系：（1）《天龙八部2：飞龙战天》4月14日公测，当期充值部分递延至後期，而上綫初期集中推广産生费用较大，从而出现利润错配，有望於後期逐步释放；（2）在营游戏流水自然回落，如《幻塔》（2021年底上綫）在去年同期22上半年处於流水高位，生命周期影响导致相应业绩贡献同比下降；（3）储备産品研发推进支出等综合影响。 储备産品进展方面，自研的《神魔大陆 2》《一拳超人：世界》《乖离性百万亚瑟王：环》及端游産品《Perfect New World》预计将於近期开啓新一轮测试；《女神异闻录：夜幕魅影》已於23年8月获得进口游戏版号；《诛仙世界》预计将於23年12月进行压轴测试。展望24年我们认爲公司储备産品丰富，多轮测试论证下産品成功率更有保障，且有望丰富公司收入来源。 Games: Demi-Gods & Semi-Devils 2 imminent release; new phase of product cycle The games business generated revenue of RMB3.64bn in 23H1, down 2.5% yoy; growth would have been flat yoy if we exclude the impact of the sale of European and US subsidiaries in 22H1. Ex-nonrecurring net profit would have been RMB430m in 23H1, down 42.8% yoy. On perspective, we would incorporate the following factors: -Demi-Gods and Semi-Devils 2: Flying Dragon Battle rolled out an open beta release on 14 April. Profits were skewed by partial deferment of top-ups and heavy spending in the initial promotional phase, but we expect they will be reflected over time in the later phases. -Natural fallback in gaming operational turnover: Tower of Fantasy, for instance, was launched at end-2021 and saw high user activity in 22H1, which impacted the profit contribution lifecycle in terms of a subsequent yoy decline. -The combined impact of pipeline products’ R&D and promotional expenses and other outlays. Test release pipeline: we anticipate Perfect World will launch new test releases for its proprietary game titles in the near future, including Forsaken World 2, One Punch Man: World, Kai-Ri-Sei Million Arthur: Ring and PC game Perfect New World. Persona 5: the Phantom X obtained its import game title license in August 2023, while World of Jade Dynasty is slated to roll out its final test release in December 2023. Outlook: we expect Perfect World’s revenue streams in 2024E will benefit from an abundant product pipeline as well as its efforts to undertake multiple rounds of testing and verification to ensure higher probability of success. 上半年确认多部影视热门剧集收入，影视业务延续聚焦战略 23H1公司影视业务实现营收7.6亿元，去年同期爲6.4亿元，其中主要爲电视剧业务贡献，电视剧的毛利率爲15%。上半年公司出品的《星落凝成糖》《心想事成》《云襄传》《温暖的甜蜜的》《护心》《追光的日子》等项目陆续播出。影视业务上公司继续坚持精品化内容路綫，在新项目的立项及开机中延续聚焦策略，储备项目包括《许你岁月静好》《特工任务》《只此江湖梦》《赤热》等。 Films and TV dramas: H1 revenue verifies strategic focus on headline series The film and TV business generated RMB760m revenue in 23H1, vs RMB640m in 22H1, contributed mostly by TV drama series, which had a 15% gross margin. Headline releases included The Starry Love, Hello Beautiful Life, The Ingenious One, Warm and Sweet, Back from the Brink and Ray of Light. The company maintained its focus on quality content and continued to create and launch new projects. Projects in the pipeline include Rose and Gun, Spy Game, Love and Sword, and The Silicon Waves. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 考虑到公司産品研发进程和排期情况略晚於我们此前预期，我们下调公司23-25年收入分别爲89.6/105.6/118.4亿元（前值爲92.67/106.44/119.08亿元），同比增长16.9%/17.8%/12.1%；下调23-25年归母净利润分别爲11.5/16.4/20.1亿元（前值爲15.33/18.74/20.18亿元），同比变动-16.8%/+42.7%/+22.6%。对应9月1日收盘价，23-25年PE分别爲24/17/13倍。维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Taking into account slightly slower product R&D progress and scheduling than we had expected, we have lowered our revenue forecasts to RMB8.96bn/10.56bn/11.84bn for 2023/24/25E (previously RMB9.27bn/10.64bn/11.91bn), up 16.9/17.8/12.1%, and our net profit forecasts to RMB1.15bn/1.64bn/2.01bn (previously RMB1.53bn/1.87bn/ 2.02bn), changing -16.8/+42.7/+22.6%. The stock is trading at 24/17/13x PE in 2023/24/25E as of the 1 Sep closing price. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：游戏上綫延期、流水不达预期，影视项目市场表现不达预期，行业监管趋严。 Risks include: game launch delays; weaker-than-expected revenues; worse-than-expected film and TV projects’ market performance; and tightening industry regulation. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）