康冠科技:创新类产品出货量同增127%,AI赋能智能显示

（以下内容从天风国际证券《康冠科技:创新类产品出货量同增127%,AI赋能智能显示》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shenzhen KTC Technology (001308 CH) 创新类产品出货量同增127%，AI赋能智能显示 Building up AI-enabled smart display business: innovative display shipments delivered 127% growth spike in H1 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 23Q2收入28.0亿（同比-6.8%），归母净利2.9亿（同比-36.8%） 公司23H1收入49.7亿，同减13.3%；其中23Q1为21.7亿，同减20.6%； 23H1归母净利5.4亿，同减21.0%；其中23Q1为2.5亿，同增10.9%； 营收分产品，23H1智能交互显示产品收入20.3亿（占总40.8%），同减19.9%，主要系原材料平均价格低于去年同期水平，公司产品价格或及时或滞后传导；智能电视收入24.9亿（占总50.2%），同增0.1%；设计加工业务收入2.6亿（占总5.2%），同减52.2%。 分地区，23H1内销8.3亿（占总16.8%），同减9.0%；外销41.4亿（占总83.2%），同减14.2%。 Q2 revenue fell 6.8% yoy to RMB2.80bn; net profit fell 36.8% yoy to RMB290m KTC Technology’s revenue arrived at RMB4.97bn in 23H1, down 13.3% yoy; including RMB2.17bn in Q1, down 20.6% yoy. 23H1 net profit was RMB540m, down 21.0% yoy; with Q1 at RMB250m, up 10.9% yoy; Products: 23H1 smart interactive display revenue came to RMB2.03bn (accounting for 40.8% of total revenue), down 19.9% yoy, mainly because raw material prices were lower on average in yoy terms and conversion to the company’s product prices was either timely or lagged. Smart TV revenue came to RMB2.49bn (50.2% of the total), nudging up 0.1% yoy, while design and processing business revenue was RMB260m (5.2% of the total), down 52.2% yoy. Markets: China sales amounted to RMB830m in 23H1 (16.8% of the total), down 9.0% yoy, while export sales came to RMB4.14bn (83.2% of the total), down 14.2% yoy. 23H1毛利率18.7%（同比-0.9pct），归母净利率10.9%（同比-1.1pct） 分产品，23H1智能交互显示24.2%，同减1.1pct，智能电视15.7%，同减0.2pct。 分地区，23H1内销15.2%，同减1.7pct；外销19.4%，同减0.7pct。 23H1销售费用率2.5%同增0.5pct；管理费用率3.0%同增0.9pct；研发费用率5.6%同增1.2pct。 23H1归母净利率10.9%，同减1.1pct，其中23Q1为11.7%，同增3.3pct，23Q2为10.4%，同减5.0pct。 H1 gross margin fell 0.9ppt yoy to 18.7%; net margin dipped 1.1ppt yoy to 10.9% Products: smart interactive displays had a gross margin of 24.2% in 23H1, narrowing 1.1ppt, while smart TVs were at 15.7%, shrinking 0.2ppt. Markets: in the China market, sales gross margin was 15.2% in 23H1, down 1.7ppt; while export sales were at 19.4%, down 0.7ppt. Expense ratios: sales expense ratio was 2.5% in 23H1, up 0.5ppt; management expense ratio was 3.0%, up 0.9ppt; and R&D expense ratio was 5.6%, up 1.2ppt. Net margins: net margin was 10.9% in H1, down 1.1ppt; with Q1 at 11.7%, up 3.3ppt, and Q2 at 10.4%, down 5.0ppt. AI赋能多元化应用需求，创新类产品出货量高增 23H1智能交互显示产品出货量同增44%（其中智能交互平板同减32%；专业类显示同增117%；创新类显示同增127%）；智能电视出货量同增14.41%。 智能交互平板出货量减少主要系①22H2欧美由于俄乌战争、通货膨胀等影响，需求有所减少；但海外教育信息化普及程度较低，教育类智能交互平板仍为新兴教学设备，市场前景仍然广阔；②公司教育类智能交互平板22H1处于原材料和客户需求双高阶段，历史基数较高；③随着整体海外需求和原材料价格的好转，公司教育类智能交互平板业务营收将逐步恢复增长趋势；④目前除欧美有较高需求外，其他新兴国家也出现明显的需求，公司将紧抓行业机遇实现快速发展。 AI-driven demand for diverse applications; innovative product shipment spikes Smart interactive display shipments grew 44% yoy in 23H1 (smart interactive panels fell 32% but enterprise displays rose 117% and innovative displays lifted 127%) and smart TV shipments increased 14.41% yoy. We attribute the decline in smart interactive tablet shipments to: ·22H2 bore the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation, which led demand to fall in Europe and the US. Further, education informatization is slow in export markets and educational smart interactive tablets are an emerging segment in the teaching equipment industry, suggesting high market prospects; ·22H1 educational smart interactive flat panels had cyclical highs in both raw materials and customer demand on high historical bases; ·improvements in total export demand and raw material prices: we expect these factors will bring KTC’s educational smart interactive tablet revenue back to its growth trend; ·high demand in Europe and the US, in addition to demand from emerging markets. We believe KTC will grab market opportunities to grow fast. 公司创新类显示产品包括移动智慧屏、智能运动镜、直播机、智能美妆镜等，以自有品牌与服务客户两种模式共同发展。 譬如移动智慧屏：集学习机、健身镜、平板电脑、电纸书阅读器和智能音箱多种功能于一体，深入解决用户痛点，解放用户双手，通过高清大屏、无线续航、触摸屏、无线投屏、隐藏万向轮、旋转升降支架和多种数据接口等功能与设计丰富影视娱乐、办公学习和健身多种应用场景； 智能运动镜：外观流畅，造型简约时尚。采用镜面屏设计，同时支持智能触控屏无缝切换。内置AI智能黑科技，可以充当用户的专属私人“教练”，能够与用户实时锻炼互动。 智能美妆镜：结合AI和镜子技术，通过内置的摄像头和人脸识别技术，实时分析用户肤质、面部特征和妆容需求，提供个性化美妆建议。 公司创新类显示产品满足客户多样化应用需求，具有人性化设计和便捷操作方式，如触摸屏、可调节角度和高度、多种接口等，又通过应用 AI、VR、AR 等前沿技术于产品设计中，综合为用户提供更舒适和便利的使用体验。 23H1公司智能交互平板在生产制造型供应商中出货量全球排名第一；智能电视出货量全球排名第五；自有品牌“KTC”在国内线上零售市场电竞类显示器销量位居Top5。 KTC’s innovative displays (mobile smart screens, live-stream devices, smart beauty and fitness mirrors); building up house brands and service models Mobile smart displays: the products integrate multiple functions such as a learning device, fitness mirror, tablet, e-book reader and a smart speakers into one device. This greatly relieves user pain points and frees up their hands. Functions and specifications include large high-definition screens, wireless charging long-life batteries, touch screens, wifi casting, concealed wheels, rotating and adjustable-height brackets, and a selection of interfaces. They provide a rich array of application scenarios such as film and TV, entertainment, office work, learning and fitness. Smart fitness mirrors: streamlined looks with simple and trendy designs. They have the appearance of a mirror while supporting seamless switching between smart touch screens. The embedded AI and smart “black technology” enables a personalized “coach” who interacts with the user and guides them to perform real-time exercises. Smart beauty mirrors: combining AI and mirror technologies, these devices use built-in cameras and face recognition technology to analyze a user’s skin quality, facial features and makeup profile in real time to provide personalized beauty suggestions. The company’s innovative displays fulfill diverse customer application requirements and offer user-friendly design and convenient features such as touch screens, adjustable angles and heights, and multiple interfaces. The integration of AI, VRAR and other cutting-edge technologies and product design provides users with a convenient and comfortable experience. Among manufacturer suppliers, KTC shipped the most smart interactive tablets in the world in 23H1; and it had the fifth-highest smart TV shipments. In the Chinese market, its KTC brand was one of the top five in online esports monitor retail sales. 差异化市场策略+全球化布局，市场份额持续扩大 公司服务于智能交互显示产品全球头部品牌商、智能电视国际知名品牌中小区域市场、各区域市场本地龙头品牌客户，上述类型客户具有产品需求多样，定制化需求高，单笔订单量相对较小的特点，同时细分领域的知名品牌或本地龙头品牌企业客户也具有收入规模大、品牌号召力强、抗风险能力强的优势，随着市场的发展，市场集中度逐步向此类企业集中，公司营业收入随着下游客户市场规模增大同步增长。 公司主要客户在海外，自 2014 年来海外市场份额逐年提升。根据公司未来三年技术支持及服务中心发展规划，公司拟在全球范围内新建多个技术支持及服务中心。同时通过公司 MTO 战略，将原材料以半散件或者散件的方式出口到对应地区当地进行组装，提高了公司整体周转速度的同时减少仓储和物流的成本，有利于提高订单响应、交付能力，扩大市场份额。 Market differentiation strategy and global network; expanding industry share KTC supplies smart interactive displays to leading global brands, globally renowned smart TV brands in regional SME markets and local leading brand customers in various regional markets. Its customers have diverse product requirements and high customization needs, and relatively small single order volumes. These well-known brands or brand enterprise customers that lead their local market segments also have advantages such as large revenue scale, strong brand appeal and high risk resilience. Along with market growth, these companies are benefiting from higher market concentration, leading KTC’s revenue to grow in tandem with the expanding market of downstream customers. KTC’s main customers are in its export market and the company’s market share has increased year on year since 2014. KTC plans to build several new technical support and service centers around the world over the next three years. At the same time, under its MTO strategy, raw materials are exported to its market regions in the form of semi-detached or loose parts for local assembly, which lifts the company’s total turnover speed and lowers warehousing and logistics costs. This helps KTC improve order response and delivery speed and expands market share. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 公司从事智能显示28年，已成为智能显示行业龙头企业之一。公司在智能交互显示产品方面不断推进创新发展，采用服务客户和构建自有品牌双发展战略，在服务客户的同时，公司陆续推出自主品牌KTC 的MINILED及OLED电竞显示器、移动随心屏、皓丽直播一体机、FPD灵境 VR 一体机、FPD 双面屏、FPD 智能美妆镜等新型显示产品，加大自有品牌发展。同时利用电子商务平台积极开拓海内外销售渠道，逐步扩大自有品牌类产品销售额。 考虑到22H2欧美由于俄乌战争、通货膨胀等影响，需求有所减少；公司教育类智能交互平板22H1处于原材料和客户需求双高阶段，历史基数较高。我们调整盈利预测，预计23-25年EPS分别为1.8/2.1/2.4元/股（原值为3.0/2.9/3.6元/股），对应PE为14/12/10x。 Valuation and risks KTC Technology became a leading market player after plowing the smart display industry for 28 years and it continues to innovate and develop smart interactive displays. Its strategic bifocal focus on service to customers and building up its own brands has led successive launches of house brand products: KTC mini-LED and OLED esports displays and mobile standing displays; Horion all-in-one live-streaming devices; and FPD VR all-in-one headsets, double-sided screens and smart beauty mirrors. KTC Tech is leveraging its ecommerce platform to build out domestic and export sales channels and expand house brand sales. Demand slumped in 22H2 with the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and inflation on the European and US markets, and educational smart interactive flat panels had both cyclically high raw materials and customer demand in 22H1 on historically high bases. In view of these factors, we lower our forecast and project EPS will arrive at RMB1.8/2.1/2.4 in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB3.0/2.9/3.6), with PE corresponding to 14/12/10x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：地缘政治风险；海外市场需求乏力风险；行业竞争加剧风险；产品推广不及预期风险等。 Risks include: geopolitical risks; weak demand in export markets; intensifying competition; and product promotion outcomes failing to meet expectations. 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