宏发股份:匠心独具,厚积薄发

（以下内容从天风国际证券《宏发股份:匠心独具,厚积薄发》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Hongfa Technology (600885 CH) 匠心独具，厚积薄发 Resuming coverage: innovative and ingenious global relay leader rules through product quality and cost advantages TP:RMB42.20 BUY 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 宏发系全球继电器龙头，2022年在全球的市占率达到19.4%。2022年全球电磁继电器行业规模为516.7亿元，同比增长12.1%。 对于传统行业，虽然整体行业增速较低但市场空间大+宏发市占率提升；对于新兴行业，如新能源汽车、光伏、储能，宏发有望享受行业高增+市占率提升。 Company profile: relay market leader accounts for 19% share of global industry Hongfa leads the relay industry with a 19.4% share of the global market as of 2022, when the global electromagnetic relay industry amounted to RMB51.67bn, growing 12.1% yoy. The downstream markets for relays comprise both traditional and emerging markets. Hongfa’s share of the large but low-growth traditional markets is expanding and we also expect its share of the high-growth emerging markets to increase, including new energy vehicles (NEVs), solar energy and energy storage. 传统行业：市场空间大+外资投入减少，行业格局优化 继电器下游多为汽车、家电等传统行业，产品趋于成熟，技术迭代放缓，国内企业与海外企业差距缩小，国内产品性价比优势明显。海外主要竞争对手松下、欧姆龙等，继电器为大集团中的小板块业务，而这些海外企业或转向利润率更高的板块，继电器行业竞争格局优化。 Traditional business: large markets, lower foreign investments, better structure Traditional downstream markets for relays comprise mostly automotives and home appliances. These relatively mature product markets are marked by slowing technological iteration rates, with a narrowing gap between Chinese and foreign companies, and where Chinese products have the cost advantage. For major foreign competitors like Panasonic and Omron, relays represent only a small segment of their business. As they switch out to higher-margin businesses, this refines the competitive market structure favorably for the likes of domestic majors. 新能源行业：先发优势显著，与全球一线客户合作 高压直流继电器是新能源汽车的核心零部件，公司在2008年就已开展高压直流继电器研发工作，2012年实现小批量生产，各项性能指标达到国际同类产品技术指标，与国外企业松下等处于同一起跑线。 2018年宏发高压直流继电器全球市占率达到20%，仅次于松下37%市占率，2022年宏发市占率达40%，成为全球龙头。 New energy business: first-mover advantage; ties with global first-tier customers NEV core components include high-voltage DC relays, on which Hongfa has conducted R&D since 2008 and achieved small-batch production in 2012. Several of its technical product specifications are on par with rival global products. In this market, Hongfa had the same starting line as foreign players like Panasonic. In 2018, Hongfa had a 20% global market share in high-voltage DC relays, second only to Panasonic’s 37%; by 2022, Hongfa had leapfrogged ahead to a share of 40% and become the global leader. 核心竞争力：自动化产线+关键零部件自制 宏发专注于主业继电器，前瞻化布局自动化产线，提高生产效率、保证产品质量。2022年，公司坚持重点产品项目优先，全年共投入 32 条自动化产线。宏发具有整条产线自制能力，及零部件配套能力，具有行业领先的模具设计能力，缩短产品开发周期。同时狠抓供应商和内部前道产业链质量，保证产品质量同时控制成本。 宏发营收规模、利润率水平均领先同行，背后原因来自产品品质优势，以及成本控制能力优异。与继电器同行对比，宏发营收、毛利率、净利率等均领先。 Core strengths: automated production; key components produced in-house Relays are Hongfa’s core business and it initiated the deployment of automated production lines to improve production efficiency and ensure product quality. Giving priority to core product projects in 2022, it invested through the year into 32 automated production lines. The company thus achieved inhouse production capability across entire production lines, supported by its own parts and components. Its industry-leading mold design ability also shortens the product development cycle. The company monitors supplier quality and its own internal front-end supply chain to maintain product quality and control cost. Both premium product quality and cost control are key factors to Hongfa’s above-peer revenue scale and profit margins, where it leads the market in terms of revenue, and gross and net margins. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值 我们预计2023-2025年收入137.4、161.4、190.0亿元，同增17%、17%、18%；归母净利14.7、17.4、20.7亿元，同增18%、18%、19%。考虑公司龙头地位稳固和同类型公司估值水平，给予2023年PE 30x，对应股价42.2元，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We forecast revenue of RMB13.74bn/16.14bn/19.00bn in 2023/24/25E, up 17%/17%/ 18%, and net profit of RMB1.47bn/ 1.74bn/2.07bn, up 18%/18%/19%. Considering Hongfa’s stable leading position and peer valuations, we assign a PE of 30x in 2023E, which derives our target price of RMB42.20. We resume coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：新能源汽车销量不及预期、宏观经济景气度下滑、客户开拓不顺利、行业竞争加剧、人才流失风险、技术风险 Risks include: lower-than-expected NEV sales; slowing macroeconomic prosperity; unsatisfactory customer development; intensifying competition; talent loss; and technology risks. 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