湘油泵:Q2扣非同比预计实现174.31%增长,新能源业务扩张有望戴维斯双击

（以下内容从天风国际证券《湘油泵:Q2扣非同比预计实现174.31%增长,新能源业务扩张有望戴维斯双击》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Hunan Oil Pump (603319 CH) Q2扣非同比预计实现174.31%增长，新能源业务扩张有望戴维斯双击 Q2E preview: ex-nonrecurring net profit up 174.31% yoy; NEV business expands on Davis double-growth effect TP:RMB30.78 BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布了2023年半年度业绩预报。2023年上半年，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润7880.74万元到8780.74万元，同比增长65%到84%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润7122.98万元到8022.98万元，同比增长73%到95%。2023年第二季度，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润4286.49万元到5186.49万元，同比增长160.63%到215.36%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润3989.33万元到4889.33万元，同比增长174.31%到236.20%。 Q2E preview: 160.63-215.36% yoy net profit rise; Davis double-growth in play Hunan Oil Pump (HOP) released preliminary 23H1E results with net profit ranging RMB78.81m-87.81m, up 65% to 84% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB71.23m-80.23m, up 73-95% yoy. For Q2E, it estimates net profit of RMB42.86m-51.86m, up 160.63-215.36% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB39.89m-48.89m, up 174.31-236.20% yoy. 点评：2023年H1公司业绩回暖，Q2业绩超预期，较去年同期增长较大。我们认为，公司近几年在可变排量泵技术上有质的提升，并在不断深化电子泵和电机等业务，布局新能源市场，目前公司在新能源领域已实现业务的快速扩张，加之估值从传统燃油车切换至更高的新能源领域，有望迎来戴维斯双击。 Our takeaways: performance picked up in H1E and exceeded expectations in Q2E, which grew faster yoy. We reckon HOP has made qualitative advances in variable displacement pump technology in recent years. Its increased traction in areas like electronic pumps and motors led to rapid new energy business growth. Add the higher valuation in the switchover from ICE vehicles to NEV and we expect the company will enter a new growth cycle on the Davis double-growth effect. 新能源业务快速扩张，客户需求快速提升。公司近年来坚持“电动化、新能源化”的战略目标，积极拓宽新能源市场，主要包括电子泵、可变排量泵、电机、壳体等新能源车用零部件。目前，公司在新能源领域已实现业务的快速扩张，新能源车用零部件业务连续增长，加之估值从较低的传统燃油车切换至更强的新能源领域，有望迎来戴维斯双击。1）电子泵类产品：公司在近年持续加大电子泵类产品的开发应用，涵盖电子水泵、电子油泵、新能源汽车电池冷却水泵，已与康明斯、佩卡、美国卡特、吉利汽车、奇瑞汽车、智新科技、青山变速器、盛瑞传动等建立合作，并为比亚迪纯电动车配套电子油泵产品。2）其他新能源车用零部件：公司子公司嘉力机械向新能源汽车客户供应主壳体产品，子公司深圳东兴昌提供包括智能驾驶感知层及执行层的激光雷达电机和EPS电机等产品，并已在电动汽车新势力头部品牌车型中获得量产。 NEV market: fast business growth and escalating customer demand The company’s electrification and new energy strategy has driven its NEV business expansion, which includes NEV parts and components such as electronic pumps, variable displacement pumps, motors and housings. Its expansion has been rapid on a growing business in NEV parts. We expect this to drive the Davis double-growth effect, coupled with higher-valuation NEV in the switchover from gasoline vehicles. Electronic pumps: HOP recently increased the development and application of electronic pumps to cover electronic water pumps, electronic oil pumps and NEV battery cooling water pumps. It established cooperative ties with Cummins, Paccar, American Caterpillar, Geely Automobile, Chery Automobile, Intelligent Power System, Tsingshan Industrial and Shengrui Transmission; and it also supplies electronic oil pumps to BYD’s pure electric vehicles. Other NEV parts: Jiali Machinery, a HOP subsidiary, supplies main housing products to its NEV customers. Another subsidiary, Dongxingchang Technology (Shenzhen), supplies lidar and EPS motors for the perception and execution layers in smart driving, which it mass produces for car models by leading NEV brands. 可变排量泵技术领先，与比亚迪、理想深度合作开拓混动蓝海。公司目前已拥有可变排量相关专利超过120项，在该技术上已达到国内领先、国际先进水平。2023H1我国混动市场表现强劲，尤其是插电式混合动力增长迅猛，H1实现销量102.5万辆，同比增长91.1%。而公司目前已经与混动龙头比亚迪建立深度合作，变速箱油泵产品在比亚迪 DMi 新能源车型中市场份额 100%。此外，公司也成为理想汽车增程式新能源车型的全可变排量机油泵供应商。与比亚迪、理想等企业的深度合作有望助推公司快速开拓混动市场，打开潜在业务空间。 Variable displacement pumps: BYD, Li Auto ties expand hybrid market potential HOP currently holds over 120 patents for variable displacement technologies and counts among the Chinese and global pace-setters in this technology. China’s hybrid vehicle market grew strongly in 23H1, particularly for plug-ins, and sales amounted to 1.03m vehicles, up 91.1% yoy. HOP has established deep ties with hybrid vehicle leader BYD, and its transmission oil pumps have 100% market share in BYD’s DMi new energy models. HOP also became a supplier of fully variable displacement oil pumps for Li Auto’s extended-range NEVs. We expect its deep ties with BYD, Li Auto and other companies will help the company grow quickly in the hybrid market and expand its market potential. 原辅材料价格回落，产品毛利同比提升。公司采购的主要原材料包括齿轮、内外转子、铝锭、生铁、钢材、铝材压铸毛坯等，其中，齿轮、压铸毛坯的生产材料也是钢材和铝锭。受益于原辅材料价格回落，采购成本下降，产品毛利率同比提升。 Price drop in raw and auxiliary materials; product gross profits lifted yoy The main raw materials purchased by the company include gears, inner and outer rotors, aluminum ingots, pig iron, steel and aluminum die-casting blanks; steel and aluminum ingots are also materials in the production of gears and die-casting blanks. Falling prices in raw and auxiliary materials have reduced procurement costs and raised yoy gross profit margins of products. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司在新能源领域业务快速扩张+估值从较低的传统燃油车切换至更强的新能源领域的双重逻辑下有望迎来戴维斯双击。公司与比亚迪等龙头车企的深度合作也有望为公司打开混动市场空间。我们预测23/24/25年公司归母净利润分别为2.38/3.14/4.25亿元，目标价格30.78元，维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks We expect to see a Davis double-growth effect from rapid expansion in the NEV business and the valuation premium of switching from the ICE to NEV market. Deep ties with leading car companies such as BYD also add hybrid market growth potential for HOP, in our view. We forecast net profit will amount to RMB238m/314m/425m in 2023/24/25E. With our target price at RMB30.78, we maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：技术应用进度不及预期；市场竞争加剧；新能源汽车行业复苏不及预期；原辅材料价格波动风险；可转债募集项目建设不及预期。业绩预报是初步测算结果，具体财务数据以公司披露半年报为准。 Risks include: slower-than-expected technological application progress; intensifying competition; slower-than-expected recovery in the NEV industry; price fluctuations in raw and auxiliary materials; and construction of convertible bond fundraising projects could fall short of expectations. Note: the company’s preliminary 23H1E forecast is subject to the release of its final 23H1 results report with detailed financial data. 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