学大教育:巩固个性化教育优势,积极布局职业教育

（以下内容从天风国际证券《学大教育:巩固个性化教育优势,积极布局职业教育》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group (000526 CH) 巩固个性化教育优势，积极布局职业教育 Initiating coverage: personalized education market leader hones competitive edge, builds out vocational education ACCUMULATE (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 学大教育专注于个性化教育，自2001年创立以来，学大教育秉承“以人为本、因材施教”的个性化教育理念，打造了包括个性化教育、职业教育、文化服务、教育数字化等在内的丰富业务模式。公司主要包括的服务有个性化学习、艺考学习营、职业教育、综合学校等。 Financials turned profitable in 2022; core business is educational training services Profile: Xueda Education started out in 2001 and provides personalized education based on “people-oriented learning tailored to aptitude”. It has built up a rich business model that includes personalized education, vocational education, cultural services and digitized education. Core services include personalized learning, art exam learning camps, vocational education and comprehensive schools. 公司营收自2018年29.0亿元减少至2022年18.0亿元。公司近期发布业绩预告，23Q2预计归母0.65-0.85亿，同增43%-87%；扣非0.67-0.87亿，同增55%-101%。分业务，2022 教育培训服务费收入17.3亿元，同减30.2%，占比减少至96.2%。2022设备租赁收入为0.06亿元，同比减少14.3%，占比增长至0.6%。 Financials: Xueda recently released a preliminary 23Q2E results preview with net profit at RMB65m-85m, up 43-87% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB67m-87m, up 55-101% yoy. In 23Q1, net profit came to RMB5m while gross margin grew 1.8ppt to 28.0% and net margin expanded 21.8ppt to 0.6%. Annual net profit turned around to the black in 2022 with RMB10m, up 102.0% yoy. Meanwhile, revenue declined from RMB2.90bn in 2018 to RMB1.80bn in 2022. 2022 revenue streams: ·Business divisions -Education and training fees brought in RMB1.73bn, down 30.2% yoy; reducing its proportion of total revenue to 96.2%; -Equipment leasing generated RMB6m, down 14.3% yoy; expanding its revenue proportion to 0.6%. 分地区，西部地区收入占比逐年增加，东部地区和中部地区占比逐年减少。2022年东部地区营收为10.2亿元，同比减少4.3%，占比减少至56.9%；中部地区2022营收为2.0亿元，同比减少1.3%，占比减少至11.1%；西部地区2022营收为5.8亿元，同比减少1.7%，占比增加至32.0%。2022公司归母净利润0.1亿，同增102.0%，公司扭亏为盈。23Q1归母净利润0.05亿元，公司毛利率为28.0%，同增1.8pct；归母净利率为0.6%，同增21.8pct。 ·Market regions: eastern and central China have been on downtrends in terms of annual revenue share, while western China has been on an uptrend: -Eastern China generated RMB1.02bn in 2022, down 4.3% yoy; reducing its share of total revenue to 56.9%; -Western China brought in RMB580m, down 1.7% yoy; expanding its share of total revenue to 32.0%; -Central China revenue came to RMB200m, down 1.3% yoy; its share of total revenue slipped to 11.1%. 职业教育市场蓬勃发展，数字中国、AI发展利好教育信息化。国家在职业教育和教育信息化领域不断出台利好政策，2024年职业教育市场规模预期达到12100亿元，2016-2024CAGR为7.04%，2023年教育信息化市场规模预期达到5573亿元，2016-2023年CAGR为9.53%。随着政策的利好以及K12学科的受限，资本未来有望持续投入到职业教育行业。当前人工智能等技术快速发展，未来将促进教育信息化加速升级。 Vocational education market boom: digital China and AI driving informatization China continues to roll out policies to support the vocational education and education informatization industries. We project the vocational education industry will amount to RMB1.21tr in 2024E on a CAGR of 7.04% over 2016-24E. And we predict education informatization will generate RMB557.3bn in 2023E, driving a CAGR of 9.53% over 2016-23E. In light of favorable policy and K12 curriculum curbs on the tuition market, we believe capital will continue to be invested into the vocational education industry, while the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and other tech catalysts would accelerate education market informatization growth. 巩固传统优势领域业务，布局高质量职业教育。公司作为国内个性化教育的开创者和领导者，运营成熟，在行业中具有较强的品牌优势。全日制培训业务在系统、师资、课程、教研、运营、管理等方面积累了强大的能力和资源，为高考复读生、艺考生等学生群体提供无干扰、无顾虑、无隐患的学习环境，根据学生实际情况全程安排个性化的教学进度和授课内容，使学生获得高效的学习体验。此外，积极深入探索和布局职业教育、文化服务、教育数字化等领域。 Xueda increases traction in strong areas; building up vocational education As the pioneer and personalized education market leader in China, Xueda’s competitive edge comes from mature operations and a strong brand. In the full-time training business, it has carved out strong capabilities and resources in terms of systems, teachers, curriculum, teaching and research, operations and management. It strives to provide a distraction-free, worry-free and hazard-free learning environment for student groups such as repeat university entrance exam candidates and art candidates. It manages personalized teaching schedules and lectures throughout the process that cater to students’ demand requirements. This ensures an efficient learning experience. The company is exploring and increasing traction in areas like vocational education, cultural services and education market digitalization. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。公司在巩固个性化教育业务的同时，深挖市场需求，拓展全日制基地等业务应用场景，深入探索和布局职业教育、文化服务、教育数字化等领域。我们预计公司23-25年收入分别为22.6、28.2、35.5亿元，归母净利分别为0.8/1.1/1.5亿元，对应EPS分别为0.66、/0.94/1.27元/股，对应PE分别为48/34/25x。 Valuation and risks In consolidating the personalized education business, Xueda sought to gain insights into market demand requirements. It expanded into application scenarios such as full-time facilities, while exploring and building up vocational education, cultural services, education digitalization and other areas. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB2.26bn/2.82bn/3.55bn in 2023/24/25E and net profit at RMB80m/110m/150m, with EPS corresponding to RMB0.66/0.94/1.27 and PE to 48/34/25x. We initiate coverage of the stock with an ACCUMULATE rating. 风险提示：政策风险、新业务风险、管理风险、营运成本上升风险、测算具有主观性、公司流通市值较小等风险，业绩预告仅为公司初步核算，准确数据请以公司最终公告为准 Risks include: policy risks; new business risks; management risks; rising operating costs; subjectivity of estimates; and small market cap risks. Note: the forecast is based on the company’s preliminary results data, please refer to its final results release for precise data. 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