潮宏基:中国彩金珠宝领潮者,洞察“年轻时尚”市场需求
（以下内容从天风国际证券《潮宏基:中国彩金珠宝领潮者,洞察“年轻时尚”市场需求》研报附件原文摘录）
Guangdong CHJ Industry (002345 CH) 中国彩金珠宝领潮者，洞察“年轻时尚”市场需求 Initiating coverage: China’s colored gold jewelry pioneer monetizes demand insights into trendy youth market TP:RMB9.20 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 聚焦时尚与轻奢，兼顾传承与创新 定位“时尚”，彩金珠宝领潮者。潮宏基品牌创立于1997年，自创立之初即专注于“彩金珠宝”细分领域，是首家在中国推出彩金珠宝首饰的珠宝企业。核心业务是对“CHJ潮宏基”“VENTI梵迪”和 “FION菲安妮”三大品牌的运营管理。 Market differentiation: core competitive edge is simple luxury benchmark CHJ’s colored gold products lead the market as it positions as a trendy jeweler. The Chaohongji (CHJ) brand was born in 1997 with the company’s founding. As the pioneer of colored gold jewelry in the Chinese industry, CHJ’s specialty is evident from the outset. Management of core operations centers on three major brands: CHJ, Venti and Fion. 对标“轻奢”，凸显差异化核心竞争力。原创设计性强，公司重视产品设计和工艺研发，自 2000年起组建了自有的设计团队。研发投入优于同业。2022年公司研发人员数量为245人，同比增长5.6%；品牌认知度高，2022年公司以 381.19亿元的品牌价值连续十九年登榜中国500 最具价值品牌；核心用户群体广，公司旗下各品牌均以“青春靓丽、追逐时尚”的都市女性为目标客户，拥有超1600万精致会员，2022年会员复购贡献收入占总收入比重约 48%。 R&D-driven design: CHJ built its original design prowess by focusing on product design and process R&D, which included the setting up of a dedicated design team in 2000. The company invests more into R&D than its peers, and its R&D team has 245 personnel, having expanded 5.6% in 2022. High brand recognition: the company has been placed among China’s 500 most valuable brands for 19 straight years, with its brand valued at RMB38.12bn in 2022. All of its brands target “youthful and beautiful fashion-conscious urban females”, which describe a large user demographic. It has more than 16m premium members. Revenue from members’ repurchases contributed about 48% of total revenue in 2022. 黄金产品收入占比提升，皮具贡献高毛利水平。公司2022财年营收44.17亿，同减4.73%；23Q1营收15.24亿，同增21.59%。其中传统黄金首饰收入为14.4亿元，同增12.56%，占比增至32.71%，主要系黄金工艺突破创新，黄金饰品走向时尚化。2022年公司毛利率为30.18%，同比减少3.21pct。分产品看，皮具毛利率最高。2022年公司皮具产品毛利率为63.55%，同比增长3.32pct；时尚珠宝首饰毛利率为35.27%，同比减少2.82pct；传统黄金首饰毛利率为9.23%，同比减少0.91pct。 Product mix: gold goods rising in revenue share; leather has highest gross margin CHJ’s revenue fell 4.73% yoy to RMB4.42bn in 2022, while it rose 21.59% yoy to RMB1.52bn in 23Q1; while gross margin was at 30.18% in 2022, down 3.21ppt yoy. Product category perspectives: ·Revenue share: traditional gold jewelry accounted for 32.71% of revenue in 2022 at RMB1.44bn, up 12.56% yoy, on technological innovations and the increasing trendiness of gold jewelry. ·Margin share: leather goods had the highest gross margin at 63.55% in 2022, up 3.32ppt yoy, with fashion jewelry at 35.27%, down 2.82ppt yoy and traditional gold jewelry at 9.23%, down 0.91ppt yoy. 行业——在需求端探索蓝海市场 疫后黄金消费需求强势复苏，行业景气度稳步提升。2022年中国珠宝首饰市场总规模为7190亿元，与2021年基本持平。非婚需求崛起，限上企业珠宝零售额同比增长18.5%，黄金饰品复苏高景气有望继续。低线城市中产崛起，推动中高端消费品市场持续增长。麦肯锡预期2025年中国中等收入人群将超过5亿，总可支配收入达到13.3万亿元。同时中产阶层年轻化带来消费升级提质，可选消费品需求与日俱增。消费观念更新迭代，新场景新需求涌现。国潮文化自信高企，打开本土优势品牌机会窗口；传统婚庆依赖度下降，社交属性消费体验凸显；年轻消费群体成主导，职业女性推动“她经济”与“悦己消费”发展。 Industry: changing demand drivers open up blue-ocean opportunities Gold consumer demand returns: gold consumer demand is recovering strongly post-pandemic to strongly drive up industry growth. China’s jewelry market amounted to RMB719bn in 2022, roughly equivalent to that in 2021. Demand for non-marital jewelry has risen and retail sales in this category from companies above a designated size (i.e. annual revenue of RMB20m) increased 18.5% yoy in 2022. We expect the recovery in the gold jewelry market to continue. Demand shift to higher end: a swelling middle class in the lower-tier city market has driven growth in higher-end consumer goods. McKinsey forecasts that China’s middle-income population will surpass 500m and total disposable income will reach RMB13.3tr by 2025E. At the same time, a more youthful middle class brings consumption upgrades and quality improvements, raising demand for discretionary consumer goods by the day. As the consumer mindset shifts toward what is trendy, new scenarios and demand requirements have emerged. The current tide of high Chinese cultural confidence has opened opportunities for local brands, even as the imperative of traditional wedding celebrations has subsided while social attributes rise in importance. Young consumers are the dominant demographic while career women have raised demand drivers such as “her economy” and self-gifting. 公司——在供给端寻求差异化发展机遇 目前中国珠宝行业竞争中展现出差异化竞争格局。公司在私域渠道拓展取得显著成果，获得2022年腾讯智慧零售 T+品牌私域价值榜“飞跃标杆奖”及第十三届虎啸奖年度私域营销铜奖等奖项。公司目标2023年净增加盟店200-250家；工艺端持续推动“非遗商业化”，将花丝镶嵌应用于产品设计，推陈出新，加速新品迭代；产品端探索培育钻市场，依托“年轻女性”用户群体优势，市场潜力可期；运营端加速数字化管理，进一步赋能全域运营和销售。通过深入挖掘完整的业务生态，发掘差异化发展机遇。 Company: supply market differentiation opens up growth opportunities Industry accolades: China’s jewelry industry has a markedly differentiated competitive landscape. CHJ leads the market in terms of expanding private domain channels: it won the Leaping Benchmark Award in the 2022 Tencent Smart Retail T+ Brand Private Domain Value List and the 13th Tiger Roar Award Annual Private Domain Marketing Bronze Award and other awards. Meanwhile, its initiatives include: ·More franchises: CHJ targets to increase its franchised store count by 200-250 in 2023E. ·Craftsmanship: it is pushing to monetize a non-legacy mindset by using filigree inlays in its product design, incorporating innovations and iterating new products. ·Product drivers: it is exploring the cultivated diamond market to tap the potentially lucrative young female consumer market. ·Operations: the company has stepped up digitized management to run its global operations and sales. ·Ecosystem: it is also tapping a comprehensive coverage business ecosystem to explore growth opportunities for differentiated markets. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。公司在珠宝市场中具有较强竞争力，其准确的目标用户定位、产品创新和多样性、技术手段的运用以及品牌建设和市场推广的投入，助力其在年轻时尚女性市场展开积极竞争。我们预计公司2023-25年营收分别为56、68、80亿元，归母净利润分别为4.1、5.0、6.1亿元，对应EPS分别为0.46、0.57、0.69元/股，PE分别为14、12、10x。参考可比公司平均PE，我们给予公司目标PE为20x，对应目标价约为9.20元。 Valuation and risks CHJ’s competitive edge in the jewelry market lies in its precisely targeted consumer demographic positioning, product innovations and diversity, and tech applications. Meanwhile, brand-building and marketing investments have raised its profile in the trendy young female market. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB5.64bn/6.79bn/8.01bn in 2023/24/25E and net profit at RMB407m/504m/610m, with EPS corresponding to RMB0.46/0.57/0.69 and PE to 14/12/10x. Relative to average peer PE, we assign to CHJ a target PE of 20x, which derives our target price of RMB9.20. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争与经营风险；存货余额较大风险；专营店增长与销售网络扩张风险；不同市场估值风险等。 Risks include: competitive and operational risks; high inventory risks; franchise store growth and sales network expansion risks; and differentiated market valuation risks. 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Guangdong CHJ Industry (002345 CH) 中国彩金珠宝领潮者，洞察“年轻时尚”市场需求 Initiating coverage: China’s colored gold jewelry pioneer monetizes demand insights into trendy youth market TP:RMB9.20 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 聚焦时尚与轻奢，兼顾传承与创新 定位“时尚”，彩金珠宝领潮者。潮宏基品牌创立于1997年，自创立之初即专注于“彩金珠宝”细分领域，是首家在中国推出彩金珠宝首饰的珠宝企业。核心业务是对“CHJ潮宏基”“VENTI梵迪”和 “FION菲安妮”三大品牌的运营管理。 Market differentiation: core competitive edge is simple luxury benchmark CHJ’s colored gold products lead the market as it positions as a trendy jeweler. The Chaohongji (CHJ) brand was born in 1997 with the company’s founding. As the pioneer of colored gold jewelry in the Chinese industry, CHJ’s specialty is evident from the outset. Management of core operations centers on three major brands: CHJ, Venti and Fion. 对标“轻奢”，凸显差异化核心竞争力。原创设计性强，公司重视产品设计和工艺研发，自 2000年起组建了自有的设计团队。研发投入优于同业。2022年公司研发人员数量为245人，同比增长5.6%；品牌认知度高，2022年公司以 381.19亿元的品牌价值连续十九年登榜中国500 最具价值品牌；核心用户群体广，公司旗下各品牌均以“青春靓丽、追逐时尚”的都市女性为目标客户，拥有超1600万精致会员，2022年会员复购贡献收入占总收入比重约 48%。 R&D-driven design: CHJ built its original design prowess by focusing on product design and process R&D, which included the setting up of a dedicated design team in 2000. The company invests more into R&D than its peers, and its R&D team has 245 personnel, having expanded 5.6% in 2022. High brand recognition: the company has been placed among China’s 500 most valuable brands for 19 straight years, with its brand valued at RMB38.12bn in 2022. All of its brands target “youthful and beautiful fashion-conscious urban females”, which describe a large user demographic. It has more than 16m premium members. Revenue from members’ repurchases contributed about 48% of total revenue in 2022. 黄金产品收入占比提升，皮具贡献高毛利水平。公司2022财年营收44.17亿，同减4.73%；23Q1营收15.24亿，同增21.59%。其中传统黄金首饰收入为14.4亿元，同增12.56%，占比增至32.71%，主要系黄金工艺突破创新，黄金饰品走向时尚化。2022年公司毛利率为30.18%，同比减少3.21pct。分产品看，皮具毛利率最高。2022年公司皮具产品毛利率为63.55%，同比增长3.32pct；时尚珠宝首饰毛利率为35.27%，同比减少2.82pct；传统黄金首饰毛利率为9.23%，同比减少0.91pct。 Product mix: gold goods rising in revenue share; leather has highest gross margin CHJ’s revenue fell 4.73% yoy to RMB4.42bn in 2022, while it rose 21.59% yoy to RMB1.52bn in 23Q1; while gross margin was at 30.18% in 2022, down 3.21ppt yoy. Product category perspectives: ·Revenue share: traditional gold jewelry accounted for 32.71% of revenue in 2022 at RMB1.44bn, up 12.56% yoy, on technological innovations and the increasing trendiness of gold jewelry. ·Margin share: leather goods had the highest gross margin at 63.55% in 2022, up 3.32ppt yoy, with fashion jewelry at 35.27%, down 2.82ppt yoy and traditional gold jewelry at 9.23%, down 0.91ppt yoy. 行业——在需求端探索蓝海市场 疫后黄金消费需求强势复苏，行业景气度稳步提升。2022年中国珠宝首饰市场总规模为7190亿元，与2021年基本持平。非婚需求崛起，限上企业珠宝零售额同比增长18.5%，黄金饰品复苏高景气有望继续。低线城市中产崛起，推动中高端消费品市场持续增长。麦肯锡预期2025年中国中等收入人群将超过5亿，总可支配收入达到13.3万亿元。同时中产阶层年轻化带来消费升级提质，可选消费品需求与日俱增。消费观念更新迭代，新场景新需求涌现。国潮文化自信高企，打开本土优势品牌机会窗口；传统婚庆依赖度下降，社交属性消费体验凸显；年轻消费群体成主导，职业女性推动“她经济”与“悦己消费”发展。 Industry: changing demand drivers open up blue-ocean opportunities Gold consumer demand returns: gold consumer demand is recovering strongly post-pandemic to strongly drive up industry growth. China’s jewelry market amounted to RMB719bn in 2022, roughly equivalent to that in 2021. Demand for non-marital jewelry has risen and retail sales in this category from companies above a designated size (i.e. annual revenue of RMB20m) increased 18.5% yoy in 2022. We expect the recovery in the gold jewelry market to continue. Demand shift to higher end: a swelling middle class in the lower-tier city market has driven growth in higher-end consumer goods. McKinsey forecasts that China’s middle-income population will surpass 500m and total disposable income will reach RMB13.3tr by 2025E. At the same time, a more youthful middle class brings consumption upgrades and quality improvements, raising demand for discretionary consumer goods by the day. As the consumer mindset shifts toward what is trendy, new scenarios and demand requirements have emerged. The current tide of high Chinese cultural confidence has opened opportunities for local brands, even as the imperative of traditional wedding celebrations has subsided while social attributes rise in importance. Young consumers are the dominant demographic while career women have raised demand drivers such as “her economy” and self-gifting. 公司——在供给端寻求差异化发展机遇 目前中国珠宝行业竞争中展现出差异化竞争格局。公司在私域渠道拓展取得显著成果，获得2022年腾讯智慧零售 T+品牌私域价值榜“飞跃标杆奖”及第十三届虎啸奖年度私域营销铜奖等奖项。公司目标2023年净增加盟店200-250家；工艺端持续推动“非遗商业化”，将花丝镶嵌应用于产品设计，推陈出新，加速新品迭代；产品端探索培育钻市场，依托“年轻女性”用户群体优势，市场潜力可期；运营端加速数字化管理，进一步赋能全域运营和销售。通过深入挖掘完整的业务生态，发掘差异化发展机遇。 Company: supply market differentiation opens up growth opportunities Industry accolades: China’s jewelry industry has a markedly differentiated competitive landscape. CHJ leads the market in terms of expanding private domain channels: it won the Leaping Benchmark Award in the 2022 Tencent Smart Retail T+ Brand Private Domain Value List and the 13th Tiger Roar Award Annual Private Domain Marketing Bronze Award and other awards. Meanwhile, its initiatives include: ·More franchises: CHJ targets to increase its franchised store count by 200-250 in 2023E. ·Craftsmanship: it is pushing to monetize a non-legacy mindset by using filigree inlays in its product design, incorporating innovations and iterating new products. ·Product drivers: it is exploring the cultivated diamond market to tap the potentially lucrative young female consumer market. ·Operations: the company has stepped up digitized management to run its global operations and sales. ·Ecosystem: it is also tapping a comprehensive coverage business ecosystem to explore growth opportunities for differentiated markets. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。公司在珠宝市场中具有较强竞争力，其准确的目标用户定位、产品创新和多样性、技术手段的运用以及品牌建设和市场推广的投入，助力其在年轻时尚女性市场展开积极竞争。我们预计公司2023-25年营收分别为56、68、80亿元，归母净利润分别为4.1、5.0、6.1亿元，对应EPS分别为0.46、0.57、0.69元/股，PE分别为14、12、10x。参考可比公司平均PE，我们给予公司目标PE为20x，对应目标价约为9.20元。 Valuation and risks CHJ’s competitive edge in the jewelry market lies in its precisely targeted consumer demographic positioning, product innovations and diversity, and tech applications. Meanwhile, brand-building and marketing investments have raised its profile in the trendy young female market. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB5.64bn/6.79bn/8.01bn in 2023/24/25E and net profit at RMB407m/504m/610m, with EPS corresponding to RMB0.46/0.57/0.69 and PE to 14/12/10x. Relative to average peer PE, we assign to CHJ a target PE of 20x, which derives our target price of RMB9.20. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争与经营风险；存货余额较大风险；专营店增长与销售网络扩张风险；不同市场估值风险等。 Risks include: competitive and operational risks; high inventory risks; franchise store growth and sales network expansion risks; and differentiated market valuation risks. 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