水星家纺:聚焦家纺主业,强化产品优势

（以下内容从天风国际证券《水星家纺:聚焦家纺主业,强化产品优势》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shanghai Shuixing Home Textile (603365 CH) 聚焦家纺主业，强化产品优势 23H1E earnings preview: focus on home textiles and competitive products BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布半年度业绩预告，预计23Q2归母净利0.77-0.98亿，同增245%-341%；扣非后0.58-0.73亿，同增298%-403%； 预计23H1归母净利1.60-1.82亿，同增50%-70%；扣非后1.28-1.44亿，同增58%-77%。 业绩预增主要系，上半年国内消费市场逐步恢复，公司聚焦优势产品，线上线下销售均实现同比增长，产品销售毛利率较上年同期有所增长，公司盈利能力实现稳步提升。 23H1E preview: honing competitive advantage amid Chinese market recovery Shuixing Home Textiles released an H1 results preview with its 23Q2 net profit at RMB77m-98m, up 245-341% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB58m-73m, up 298-403% yoy. It estimates 23H1E net profit at RMB160m-182m, up 50-70% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB128m-144m, up 58-77% yoy. We attribute its estimated performance growth mainly to a gradual recovery in the Chinese consumer market in H1. Shuixing focused on products where it has a competitive edge and achieved yoy growth in both online and offline sales. Product sales gross margin expanded yoy as profitability improved steadily. 建立规模化销售网络，线上线下联动布局。 公司已形成以经销商、直营渠道和网络销售渠道为主，国际贸易、团购为辅的规模化销售网络。线下渠道布局上，公司在三四线城市构筑“网格布局”，在一、二线城市构筑“重点布局”，呈现较为突出的渠道卡位优势。公司已在多个省会城市、经济发达城市开设直营门店，提高公司直营销售占比，完善公司的渠道结构，增强对销售终端的控制力。公司通过加盟渠道延续以提升渠道经营质量为主的市场拓展策略，扩大店铺面积、提升店铺形象，增强服务水平等方式进一步巩固优势经营区域并有序开拓新兴市场。 线上渠道布局上，公司采取超前布局战略，具备市场先发优势。公司具备高度专业化的电商业务团队，积极应对线上渠道快速变化，具有极强的开拓能力和适应能力，积累了丰富的电商业务运作经验。基于大数据分析的整体业务规划，公司网络销售规模持续增长，取得网络销售领域行业内领先的业绩。 Large-scale sales network and increasing O2O synergy Shuixing set up a large-scale sales network of mostly distributors from both direct and online sales channels, supplemented by global trade and group purchases. Offline channels: the company maximized its positioning advantage by mapping out a grid structure for third to fourth-tier cities and a core grid for first to second-tier cities. To increase the proportion of direct sales, it opened directly-operated stores in many provincial capital cities as well as economically developed cities, improve the company’s channel structure, and enhance its control over sales terminals. In its franchised channel, the company deploys a market expansion strategy that focuses on improving channel management quality, expanding the store area, improving the store image and service levels to increase its traction in areas where it has the advantage, while smoothly building a presence in emerging markets. Online channels: Shuixing uses an advanced network strategy to leverage its first-mover market advantage. It has a highly professional ecommerce team that responds to rapid changes in online channels, based on its pioneering ability and adaptability, and experience in ecommerce operations. The company bases business planning on big data analysis, which has led online sales to rise in scale to the industry forefront. 多品牌运营模式，科技赋能产品创新。 公司的品牌运营采用“品类品牌化”的方式组建品牌矩阵，以“水星”品牌为主，“百丽丝”品牌为辅，以“水星家纺婚庆馆”“水星宝贝”“水星 KIDS”等品牌为组合细分品类品牌，在强化“水星”主品牌的同时，快速、有效地实现了品类细分市场的拓展。 公司持续优化产品结构，增强高品质、绿色原材料研发和供应链打造，推进睡眠科技成果转化及应用，打造健康、环保、生态型科技类产品，持续提升产品竞争力。公司在产品研发和技术创新上始终坚持消费者至上的理念，针对不同品牌、不同渠道，通过对消费者需求的深入研究，以更强的消费者理解能力去完成对产品的研发、设计，形成了成熟的以原创研发设计为主，以与国内外纺织领域知名高校、专业研究机构合作研发为辅的设计研发运作模式。 Multi-brand model: research and technology empower product innovations Brands: the company’s brand operations center on a brand matrix based on product categories. The Mercury flagship brand is supplemented by a secondary brand, Bliss, as well as segmental brands that describe product categories like Mercury Wedding, Mercury Baby and Mercury Kids. Shuixing continues to add traction for its Mercury brand while expanding the segmental brands. Green tech: the company is optimizing its product structure by beefing up R&D into quality and green raw materials, as well as creating the supply chain. It is pushing the application of sleep science and technology to create healthy and environmentally friendly products that would raise its competitiveness. Consumer-centered: to develop and innovate its different brands and channels, its in-depth study of consumer demand requirements glean insights that flesh out product development and design. Shuixing’s mature design-and-development operational model is based on the company’s proprietary R&D and original design, supplemented by R&D collaborations with well-known universities and research institutions in the textile industry both in China and other countries. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。公司通过提升消费者深层洞察力，在品牌价值传播、双线渠道建设、产品创新研发等方面持续创新、积累，并取得显著的行业领先优势，不断提升核心竞争能力。考虑到终端需求不确定性，调整盈利预测，我们预计公司23-25年收入分别为40.9/45.8/50.8亿（23-24原值为46.1/52.2亿），归母净利分别为3.3/4.4/5.0亿（23-24原值为4.2/4.7亿），对应PE分别为12/9/8x，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks The company’s efforts to gain deep consumer insights have raised its industry positioning and enhanced its core competitive advantages, including aspects such as brand value communications, its dual-channel buildout, and product innovations and R&D. We adjusted our forecast in the face of end-market demand uncertainties. We now project revenue will arrive at RMB4.09bn/4.58bn/5.08bn in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB4.61bn/5.22bn in 2023/24E), with net profit at RMB330m/440m/500m (previously RMB420m/470m); corresponding to PE of 12/9/8x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观因素波动风险；生产成本大幅波动的风险；新产品开发的风险等。本次公告仅为初步核算数据，具体财务数据以公司正式披露的半年报为准。 Risks include: macro fluctuations; sharp volatility in production costs; and new product development risks. Note: the company’s preliminary H1 accounting data is subject to the subsequent release of its actual and detailed financial report. 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