宝钢包装:二片罐龙头,国企赋能加速成长

（以下内容从天风国际证券《宝钢包装:二片罐龙头,国企赋能加速成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968 CH) 二片罐龙头，国企赋能加速成长 Initiating coverage: SOE positioning adds growth potential for two-piece-can market leader BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 国内金属包装龙头，聚焦二片罐市场 公司是国内专业从事生产食品、饮料等快速消费品金属包装的领先企业，产品包括金属两片罐及配套易拉盖、包装印铁产品和新材料包装等。公司持续推进“内外联动”国际化战略，在国内东部、南部、北部、中部、西部，及海外马来西亚、柬埔寨等多地进行产能布局，与可口可乐、百事可乐、雪花、嘉士伯、百威、青岛啤酒、王老吉等国内外知名品牌建立了长期稳定的战略合作关系。 Chinese metal packaging leader focuses on two-piece cans Leading domestic metal packaging manufacturer Baosteel Packaging targets the fast-moving consumer goods market, which includes food and beverages. Its products include metal two-piece cans with easy-opening lids, printed iron product packaging and new materials packaging. It is currently pushing an internationalization strategy with both internal and external characteristics, expanding a production capacity buildout to the eastern, southern, northern, central and western parts of China, as well as globally to Malaysia, Cambodia and elsewhere. Stable longtime strategic ties with renowned domestic and foreign brands include Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Snow Beer, Carlsberg, Budweiser, Tsingtao Brewery and Wanglaoji. 营收稳健增长，盈利能力有望改善 2022年公司收入85.43亿，同比+22.60%；归母净利润2.68亿，同比-0.76%，盈利能力略有承压。分产品，2022年二片罐营收77.10亿，同比+29.99%，收入占比90.25%；印铁营收8.06亿，同比-21.86%，占比9.43%。分地区，2022年内销收入67.73亿，同比+18.44%；外销收入17.43亿，同比+40.10%，外销高增长系公司兰州、马来西亚等新建项目推进。 Steady revenue growth in 2022; profit slightly dented; we see an uptick ahead Revenue amounted to RMB8.54bn in 2022, up 22.60%; while slight profitability pressure led net profit to dip 0.76% to RMB268m. ·Products: two-piece cans generated revenue of RMB7.71bn in 2022, up 29.99%, accounting for 90.25% of total revenue; while printed iron products brought in revenue of RMB806m, falling 21.86% and accounting for 9.43% of the total. ·Regions: China sales revenue was RMB6.77bn in 2022, up 18.44%, while exports generated RMB1.74bn, up 40.10%; the respectable growth trends were due to new projects in Lanzhou and Malaysia. 行业供需格局优化，基本面景气向上 2016年开始国内二片罐企业加速整合并购，供需格局改善，竞争格局优化，行业集中度进一步提升。据中国包装联合会金属容器委员会预计，2022年我国食品饮料金属包装行业将实现1190亿罐的总产量，其中二片罐将实现560亿罐产量，占比约47.06%。我国二片罐需求量最大的是啤酒包装，2019年国内啤酒二片罐需求量占比约56.4%。2022年美国、英国、日本啤酒罐化率分别为72.3%、65.5%、90.0%，中国啤酒罐化率为27.1%，相较其他发达国家有较大提升空间，我们预计我国啤酒罐化率提升将驱动二片罐行业整体扩容。 2-piece can industry: improving supply-demand structure and fundamentals China’s two-piece can market has seen greater integration amid M&A since 2016, which increased the industry concentration and improved supply-demand factors while optimizing the competitive structure. The China Packaging Federation’s Metal Container Committee estimates the country’s F&B metal packaging output at 119bn cans in 2022, including 56bn two-piece cans, which accounted for 47.06% of the total. Beer is the largest demand category for its two-piece cans and demand for two-piece beer cans accounted for about 56.4% in 2019. In a 2022 global breakdown, beer can proportions in the US, UK and Japan were 72.3%, 65.5% and 90.0%, with China‘s at 27.1%. Thus, compared with other developed countries, China has much potential growth headroom. We expect China’s beer can proportion to increase, which would drive total two-piece can market growth. 业务布局持续扩张，数智化转型加速 1）公司深度绑定下游大客户，较早与可口可乐、百事可乐、百威、雪花、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、王老吉等大客户建立了长期稳定的合作关系，同时不断开拓新客户，在现有的B2B商业模式外，积极探索B2C等新模式。2）公司已经在国内东西南北中各地设立生产基地，产能布局持续优化；2020-2022年在马来西亚、柬埔寨新建生产基地，海外产能积极扩展。3）2022年6月至今铝锭、马口铁原材料价格走势趋稳，我们预计中长期公司二片罐毛利率有望修复。4）公司加速数智化转型，重视产品研发，2019年完成覆膜铁成型、平板金属包装材料数字化印刷及成型、材料减薄成型及新罐型开发等多项技术，处于行业领先水平。 Baosteel Packaging: expanding network and accelerating digital restructure Deep ties with downstream majors: the company’s longtime stable relations with major customers include names like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Budweiser, Snow Beer, Yanjing Beer, Tsingtao Brewery and Wanglaoji. Baosteel continues to woo new customers and is exploring B2C and other new models in addition to its B2B model. Expanding production network: the company set up production bases in the eastern, western, northern, southern and central parts of China to optimize its production capacity network. It set up new production facilities in Malaysia and Cambodia during 2020-22 to expand its global production capacity. Raw materials: the price trends of aluminum ingots and tinplate raw materials have stabilized since June 2022. We expect Baosteel’s gross margin in its two-piece cans business will recover over the medium to long term. Digital restructure: the company prioritized product R&D and sped up a digital and smart transformation. By 2019, it had mastered a number of technologies that placed the company at the forefront of the industry, including laminated iron molding and flat metal packaging materials digital printing and molding, material thinning and molding, and the development of new can shapes. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 公司是国内金属包装龙头企业，长期聚焦国内二片罐市场，近年来业务布局持续扩张，数智化转型加速。我们预计公司2023-2025 年EPS分别为0.27/0.33/0.37元/股，归母净利润分别为3.05/3.74/4.21亿元，同比增长13.5%/22.9%/12.5%。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Chinese metal packaging leader Baosteel’s longtime focus has been on domestic two-piece cans. It recently started to expand its business network and stepped up a digital transformation. We forecast it will generate EPS of RMB0.27/0.33/ 0.37 in 2023/24/25E and net profit of RMB305m/374m/421m, up 13.5/22.9/12.5% yoy. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观环境及政策变化风险；原材料价格大幅波动风险；下游需求承压；客户集中度较高风险。 Risks include: macro changes including policy shifts; large fluctuations in raw material prices; downstream demand pressures; and high customer concentration risks. 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