新兴产业:《2022年世界烟草发展报告》发布,全球加热卷烟销量增速下降,电子烟销售额增速回升
（以下内容从天风国际证券《新兴产业:《2022年世界烟草发展报告》发布,全球加热卷烟销量增速下降,电子烟销售额增速回升》研报附件原文摘录）
China Emerging Markets 《2022年世界烟草发展报告》发布，全球加热卷烟销量增速下降，电子烟销售额增速回升 2022 global market report shows HNB sales declined while e-cigarette sales rebounded 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 本周关注：根据东方烟草报发布的《2022年世界烟草发展报告》显示，世界（不含中国大陆，下同）烟草消费总体保持稳定状态，合法卷烟销量小幅下滑，加热卷烟销量增速下降，电子烟销售额增速回升。 1、各国烟草监管日益完善，推动行业健康可持续发展 1）美国：FDA获得监管合成尼古丁的权力，没有获得上市许可的合成尼古丁产品在2022年7月13日之后不能继续在美国市场上销售；FDA加强口味禁令，发布了关于卷烟中的薄荷醇和雪茄中的口味特征的拟议产品标准，拟禁止在美国销售薄荷醇卷烟和调味雪茄；FDA计划为卷烟等可燃烟草制品确定最大尼古丁水平，将尼古丁水平降低到“最小或无瘾”的水平。2）欧盟：欧盟委员会正在修订《烟草消费税指令》（TED），其中可能包括对新型烟草和含尼古丁制品的定义和税收处理；2022年11月欧盟委员会发布了一项授权指令，要求从2023年10月23日起，所有欧盟成员国都必须适用该授权指令，禁止在欧盟加热卷烟中使用特殊口味，将影响目前在欧盟销售的很大一部分新型烟草制品。 Regulatory initiatives by countries toward healthy and sustainable market growth US: the US FDA obtained the authority to regulate synthetic nicotine so that synthetic nicotine products without a marketing authorization cannot be sold in the US market after 13 July 2022. In addition, the food and medicine body proposed to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars in the US. The FDA reinforce the flavor ban and has proposed product standards on menthol in cigarettes and flavor profiles in cigars. It plans to set maximum nicotine levels for combustible tobacco products like cigarettes and to reduce nicotine content to “minimal or non-addictive” levels. EU: the European Commission is revising its Tobacco Excise Directive (TED), which could include definitions and tax treatment for new-tobacco and nicotine-content products. The Commission issued an enabling directive in November 2022: all EU member states are required to apply the enabling directive to prohibit the use of special flavors in heat-not-burn (HNB) cigarettes in the EU from 23 Oct 2023, which would affect a sizeable proportion of new-tobacco products currently sold in the EU. 2、电子烟增长提速，2022年世界电子烟销售额达236.5亿美元 2022年，世界电子烟增长提速，销售额达236.5亿美元，同比增长20.0%。从细分类别看，开放式电子烟及可加注烟液销售额合计87.2亿美元，同比增长8.1%；封闭式电子烟销售额149.3亿美元，同比增长28.2%，其中换烟弹式电子烟和一次性电子烟的占比分别为82.9%和17.1%，一次性电子烟销售额25.5亿美元，同比增长近一倍。从市场来看，美国、英国、加拿大位居电子烟销量前三位，分别为90.0亿美元、50.3亿美元、19.8亿美元。从企业看，英美烟草、JUUL Labs、雾芯科技位居世界前三，占世界电子烟销售额比重分别为17.4%、14.4%、8.9%。 E-cigarette growth accelerated in 2022; global sales amounted to USD23.65bn Products: global e-cigarette sales accelerated last year to USD23.65bn, up 20.0% yoy. By product segment, sales of open-system e-cigarettes and refillable e-liquids amounted to USD8.72bn, up 8.1% yoy; closed-system e-cigarette sales came to USD14.93bn, up 28.2% yoy, of which the proportions of replaceable-pod and disposable e-cigarettes accounted for 82.9% and 17.1% respectively. Disposable e-cigarette sales amounted to USD2.55bn, nearly doubling yoy. Markets: the US, the UK and Canada were the top three sales markets for e-cigarette sales last year at USD9.00bn, USD5.03bn and USD1.98bn respectively. Producers: British American Tobacco, JUUL Labs and RLX Technology are the top three manufacturers, accounting for 17.4%, 14.4% and 8.9% of total global e-cigarette sales. 3、世界加热卷烟销售额同比增长16%，日本加热卷烟市场占有率近40% 2022年，加热卷烟销售额333.8亿美元，同比增长15.8%，其中加热烟具销量为0.3亿个，销售额20.9亿美元，加热烟支销量275.6万箱，销售额312.8亿美元。从市场看，日本、意大利、俄罗斯位居世界前三，销售额分别为127.7亿美元、41.1亿美元、25.4亿美元。日本加热卷烟增速不断放缓，占世界加热卷烟销售额比重逐年下降，已经从2017年之前的超80%降至2022年的38.3%。从企业看，菲莫国际保持一家独大地位，英美烟草和日本烟草紧随其后，三家公司分别占世界加热卷烟市场份额为71.4%、15.5%、4.3%。 HNB: global sales increased 16% yoy in 2022; Japan’s market share at nearly 40% Products: sales of HNB cigarettes amounted to USD33.38bn in 2022, up 15.8% yoy; comprising 30m HNB devices at USD2.09bn and 2.756m cases of HNB cigarettes at USD31.28bn. Markets: Japan, Italy and Russia were the top three sales markets in 2022 at USD12.77bn, USD4.11bn and USD2.54bn respectively. Japan‘s HNB cigarette market growth has trended down and its proportion of the global market has been declining, registering over 80% before 2017 to 38.3% in 2022. Producers: Philip Morris International continues to dominate the HNB industry, followed by British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco. Their global market shares are 71.4%, 15.5% and 4.3% respectively. 4、全球主要烟草公司持续推进各自发展战略，提高运行效率 2022年，全球主要烟草公司持续推进各自发展战略，优化组织结构，加强供应链建设，提高运行效率以谋求更好的经营业绩。在四大跨国烟草公司中，菲莫国际重回世界卷烟销量第一位置，新型烟草制品销售收入占比小幅提升；英美烟草可燃烟草产品销量下滑较大，新型烟草制品推动财务业绩上升；日本烟草业绩靓丽；帝国品牌依然努力进行转型调整。 Major global players: driving growth strategies and raising operational efficiency The world‘s big producers advanced growth strategies to improve their business performance in 2022: they optimized their organizational structures, strengthened their supply chains and improved operational efficiency. We look at each of the four major multinational tobacco companies: ·Philip Morris International resumed its top spot in global cigarette sales while slightly expanding the proportion of new-tobacco products in total sales revenue. ·British American Tobacco: combustible tobacco products fell sharply in sales volume but the push for new-tobacco products raised its financial performance. ·Japan Tobacco: its business performance is looking good. ·Imperial Brands: it is making efforts to adjust and restructure its business. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：1）雾化产业链：重点推荐-思摩尔国际（全球雾化设备生产商龙头）；建议关注：雾芯科技、金城医药、润都股份。2）烟草供应链：建议关注：中烟香港、劲嘉股份（与轻工组联合覆盖）、华宝国际、中国波顿、集友股份、顺灏股份、东风股份。新型烟草政策变动风险；销售/企业发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险。 Stock ideas Atomization supply chain ·Top pick: Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK, BUY) (leading global producer of atomization devices) ·Other stocks to consider: RLX Technology (RLX US, NEUTRAL), Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group (300233 CH, BUY). Tobacco supply chain ·We would monitor these stocks: China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK, BUY), Shenzhen Jinjia Group (002191 CH, BUY) (jointly covered with the Light Industry desk), Huabao International (0336 HK, BUY), China Boton Group* (3318 HK, BUY; *initiation), Anhui Genuine New Materials (603429 CH, BUY), Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology (002565 CH, ACCUMULATE), Shantou Dongfeng Printing (601515 CH, ACCUMULATE). Not-rated market players We currently do not have investment opinions on Zhuhai Rundu Pharmaceutical (002923 CH). 风险提示：新型烟草政策变动风险；销售/企业发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险。 Risks include: new-tobacco policy changes; weaker-than-expected sales or company growth; and intensifying competition. 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China Emerging Markets 《2022年世界烟草发展报告》发布，全球加热卷烟销量增速下降，电子烟销售额增速回升 2022 global market report shows HNB sales declined while e-cigarette sales rebounded 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 本周关注：根据东方烟草报发布的《2022年世界烟草发展报告》显示，世界（不含中国大陆，下同）烟草消费总体保持稳定状态，合法卷烟销量小幅下滑，加热卷烟销量增速下降，电子烟销售额增速回升。 1、各国烟草监管日益完善，推动行业健康可持续发展 1）美国：FDA获得监管合成尼古丁的权力，没有获得上市许可的合成尼古丁产品在2022年7月13日之后不能继续在美国市场上销售；FDA加强口味禁令，发布了关于卷烟中的薄荷醇和雪茄中的口味特征的拟议产品标准，拟禁止在美国销售薄荷醇卷烟和调味雪茄；FDA计划为卷烟等可燃烟草制品确定最大尼古丁水平，将尼古丁水平降低到“最小或无瘾”的水平。2）欧盟：欧盟委员会正在修订《烟草消费税指令》（TED），其中可能包括对新型烟草和含尼古丁制品的定义和税收处理；2022年11月欧盟委员会发布了一项授权指令，要求从2023年10月23日起，所有欧盟成员国都必须适用该授权指令，禁止在欧盟加热卷烟中使用特殊口味，将影响目前在欧盟销售的很大一部分新型烟草制品。 Regulatory initiatives by countries toward healthy and sustainable market growth US: the US FDA obtained the authority to regulate synthetic nicotine so that synthetic nicotine products without a marketing authorization cannot be sold in the US market after 13 July 2022. In addition, the food and medicine body proposed to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars in the US. The FDA reinforce the flavor ban and has proposed product standards on menthol in cigarettes and flavor profiles in cigars. It plans to set maximum nicotine levels for combustible tobacco products like cigarettes and to reduce nicotine content to “minimal or non-addictive” levels. EU: the European Commission is revising its Tobacco Excise Directive (TED), which could include definitions and tax treatment for new-tobacco and nicotine-content products. The Commission issued an enabling directive in November 2022: all EU member states are required to apply the enabling directive to prohibit the use of special flavors in heat-not-burn (HNB) cigarettes in the EU from 23 Oct 2023, which would affect a sizeable proportion of new-tobacco products currently sold in the EU. 2、电子烟增长提速，2022年世界电子烟销售额达236.5亿美元 2022年，世界电子烟增长提速，销售额达236.5亿美元，同比增长20.0%。从细分类别看，开放式电子烟及可加注烟液销售额合计87.2亿美元，同比增长8.1%；封闭式电子烟销售额149.3亿美元，同比增长28.2%，其中换烟弹式电子烟和一次性电子烟的占比分别为82.9%和17.1%，一次性电子烟销售额25.5亿美元，同比增长近一倍。从市场来看，美国、英国、加拿大位居电子烟销量前三位，分别为90.0亿美元、50.3亿美元、19.8亿美元。从企业看，英美烟草、JUUL Labs、雾芯科技位居世界前三，占世界电子烟销售额比重分别为17.4%、14.4%、8.9%。 E-cigarette growth accelerated in 2022; global sales amounted to USD23.65bn Products: global e-cigarette sales accelerated last year to USD23.65bn, up 20.0% yoy. By product segment, sales of open-system e-cigarettes and refillable e-liquids amounted to USD8.72bn, up 8.1% yoy; closed-system e-cigarette sales came to USD14.93bn, up 28.2% yoy, of which the proportions of replaceable-pod and disposable e-cigarettes accounted for 82.9% and 17.1% respectively. Disposable e-cigarette sales amounted to USD2.55bn, nearly doubling yoy. Markets: the US, the UK and Canada were the top three sales markets for e-cigarette sales last year at USD9.00bn, USD5.03bn and USD1.98bn respectively. Producers: British American Tobacco, JUUL Labs and RLX Technology are the top three manufacturers, accounting for 17.4%, 14.4% and 8.9% of total global e-cigarette sales. 3、世界加热卷烟销售额同比增长16%，日本加热卷烟市场占有率近40% 2022年，加热卷烟销售额333.8亿美元，同比增长15.8%，其中加热烟具销量为0.3亿个，销售额20.9亿美元，加热烟支销量275.6万箱，销售额312.8亿美元。从市场看，日本、意大利、俄罗斯位居世界前三，销售额分别为127.7亿美元、41.1亿美元、25.4亿美元。日本加热卷烟增速不断放缓，占世界加热卷烟销售额比重逐年下降，已经从2017年之前的超80%降至2022年的38.3%。从企业看，菲莫国际保持一家独大地位，英美烟草和日本烟草紧随其后，三家公司分别占世界加热卷烟市场份额为71.4%、15.5%、4.3%。 HNB: global sales increased 16% yoy in 2022; Japan’s market share at nearly 40% Products: sales of HNB cigarettes amounted to USD33.38bn in 2022, up 15.8% yoy; comprising 30m HNB devices at USD2.09bn and 2.756m cases of HNB cigarettes at USD31.28bn. Markets: Japan, Italy and Russia were the top three sales markets in 2022 at USD12.77bn, USD4.11bn and USD2.54bn respectively. Japan‘s HNB cigarette market growth has trended down and its proportion of the global market has been declining, registering over 80% before 2017 to 38.3% in 2022. Producers: Philip Morris International continues to dominate the HNB industry, followed by British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco. Their global market shares are 71.4%, 15.5% and 4.3% respectively. 4、全球主要烟草公司持续推进各自发展战略，提高运行效率 2022年，全球主要烟草公司持续推进各自发展战略，优化组织结构，加强供应链建设，提高运行效率以谋求更好的经营业绩。在四大跨国烟草公司中，菲莫国际重回世界卷烟销量第一位置，新型烟草制品销售收入占比小幅提升；英美烟草可燃烟草产品销量下滑较大，新型烟草制品推动财务业绩上升；日本烟草业绩靓丽；帝国品牌依然努力进行转型调整。 Major global players: driving growth strategies and raising operational efficiency The world‘s big producers advanced growth strategies to improve their business performance in 2022: they optimized their organizational structures, strengthened their supply chains and improved operational efficiency. We look at each of the four major multinational tobacco companies: ·Philip Morris International resumed its top spot in global cigarette sales while slightly expanding the proportion of new-tobacco products in total sales revenue. ·British American Tobacco: combustible tobacco products fell sharply in sales volume but the push for new-tobacco products raised its financial performance. ·Japan Tobacco: its business performance is looking good. ·Imperial Brands: it is making efforts to adjust and restructure its business. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：1）雾化产业链：重点推荐-思摩尔国际（全球雾化设备生产商龙头）；建议关注：雾芯科技、金城医药、润都股份。2）烟草供应链：建议关注：中烟香港、劲嘉股份（与轻工组联合覆盖）、华宝国际、中国波顿、集友股份、顺灏股份、东风股份。新型烟草政策变动风险；销售/企业发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险。 Stock ideas Atomization supply chain ·Top pick: Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK, BUY) (leading global producer of atomization devices) ·Other stocks to consider: RLX Technology (RLX US, NEUTRAL), Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group (300233 CH, BUY). Tobacco supply chain ·We would monitor these stocks: China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK, BUY), Shenzhen Jinjia Group (002191 CH, BUY) (jointly covered with the Light Industry desk), Huabao International (0336 HK, BUY), China Boton Group* (3318 HK, BUY; *initiation), Anhui Genuine New Materials (603429 CH, BUY), Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology (002565 CH, ACCUMULATE), Shantou Dongfeng Printing (601515 CH, ACCUMULATE). Not-rated market players We currently do not have investment opinions on Zhuhai Rundu Pharmaceutical (002923 CH). 风险提示：新型烟草政策变动风险；销售/企业发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险。 Risks include: new-tobacco policy changes; weaker-than-expected sales or company growth; and intensifying competition. 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