浙江正特:出口订单边际向好,盈利能力趋势向上

（以下内容从天风国际证券《浙江正特:出口订单边际向好,盈利能力趋势向上》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Zhengte (001238 CH) 出口订单边际向好，盈利能力趋势向上 Export orders improve marginally and profitability trends upward BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 多产品去库情况良好，人气商品仍然热销 前期集中消费影响后续销售，22H1下游客户下单量较大，在销售不振的情况下，导致22H2库存积压。公司遮阳制品销售占比超70%，包括硬顶星空篷、软顶折叠篷、汽车篷以及遮阳伞等。1)折叠篷主要销往沃尔玛，通过促销等活动基本完成去库存；2)汽车篷主要在好市多及电商渠道销售，通过促销活动去库存情况良好；3)星空篷在欧美地区销售基础稳固，目前欧美市场销售情况良好，无库存积压；4)遮阳伞类产品订单有所下降，系因生产端企业较多，同质化相对严重，去库存情况不太明显；5)宠物笼具客户销售相对平稳，库存压力不大。 Healthy destocking across multiple products; bestsellers did well in 2022 Zhengte had a frontloaded 2022 as sales were concentrated in H1 and H2 followed with a sluggish performance. Downstream customers placed large order volumes in H1 and slow sales created an inventory backlog in H2. The company’s sunshade products accounted for more than 70% of sales, including hard-top star canopies, soft-top folding canopies, car canopies and parasols. ·Folding canopies: sold mainly to Wal-Mart and destocking of this category was mostly achieved using promotions and other means; ·Car canopies: sold mainly through Costco and ecommerce channels, and promotional activities enabled healthy destocking; ·Star tents: firm customer base in Europe and the US, with robust sales in these markets and no inventory backlog; ·Parasols: orders declined because of many producers in the market, product homogenization and not much destocking; ·Pet cages: stable sales from customers and moderate inventory pressure. 建设智能化、数字化产线，推进降本增效 户外休闲家具及用品行业规模化效益较为明显，公司重视产线的智能化、数字化建设，在提升生产效率和降低成本上有明显效果。通过对产线规划进行拓展与延伸，提升星空篷毛利空间，加快星空篷的交付速度，有望提升星空篷的综合竞争能力。 Building smart and digitalized production lines to reduce cost and lift efficiency On top of the scale advantages of outdoor leisure furniture and supplies industries, Zhengte prioritizes the construction of smart digitalized production lines, which would bring positive impacts such as lifting production efficiency and reducing costs. With the planned expansion and extension of its production lines, star canopies would see better gross profit and faster deliveries, which we expect will boost their total competitiveness. 产品竞争优势明显，订单向头部客户倾斜 下游客户对产品外形、功能性等方面有较高要求，公司研发投入较高，22年公司研发费用率为3.6%，同比+0.3pct。公司对核心产品比如星空篷等形成海外专利保护，保证公司持续的竞争优势。公司头部客户销售较为稳定，有沃尔玛、好市多、家乐福、JJA等，批量大、重复生产的集中采购会降低产品成本，形成价格优势，使供求双方共同收益。近几年，公司年销售额百万美元以上的优质客户有明显增长，公司产能会优先满足批量大、订单集中的头部客户。 Patented products add competitive edge; capacity tilted toward top customers To satisfy downstream customers’ high requirements for product style and functionality, Zhengte invested heavily into R&D. Its R&D expense ratio was 3.6% in 2022, up 0.3ppt yoy. Its core products such as star canopies are covered by international patent protection to ensure the company sustains its competitive advantage. Sales from top customers are stable and they include Wal-Mart, Costco, Carrefour and JJA. Centralized procurements of large batches and repeated production runs reduce product costs and increase the price advantage, benefiting both the supply and demand segments. The company has seen a significant increase in quality customers with annual sales of over USD1m in recent years, and production capacity prioritizes top customers with large batches and order concentration. 加强自主品牌建设，线上线下同步布局 公司跨境电商全部使用自主品牌，结合跨境电商的市场推广，采用数字化、新媒体、消费领袖引领等手段，逐步推广自主品牌。线下渠道中，公司积极和经销商协商，提升自主品牌占有率。 Building out proprietary brands; simultaneous online and offline deployment Zhengte’s cross-border ecommerce business carries and markets its own brands, where it uses digitalization, new media, consumer leadership and other means to promote its brands. In the offline channel, it negotiates with dealers to increase the share of its proprietary brands. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与评级：公司未来将在继续夯实现有经营基础的同时，持续专注于主业，注重新品开发，打造热门商品，推行数字化车间，实现规模化生产，大力投入商业模式创新和品牌营销建设。考虑到22年行业去库存，户外休闲家居用品增长承压，我们预计公司23-25年收入分别为14、18、22亿元（原预计23、24年收入18、23亿元），归母净利分别为1.0、1.2、1、5亿元（原预计23、24年归母净利润1.7、2.2亿元），对应PE分别为24、20、16x。 Valuation and risks Zhengte aims to keep strengthening its business foundation while focusing on its core business, new products development, creating popular products, conducting digital workshops to achieve large-scale production, and investing heavily into business model innovation and brand marketing. Industry destocking in 2022 dragged the growth of outdoor leisure household products as they came under pressure. We lower our revenue forecast to RMB1.4bn/1.8bn/2.2bn in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB1.8bn/2.3bn in 2023/24E) with net profit at RMB100m/120m/150m (previously RMB170m/ 220m in 2023/24E); corresponding PEs are 24/20/16x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争风险；汇率波动风险；原材料价格波动风险；知识产权侵权风险；电商销售渠道风险；贸易摩擦风险等。 Risks include: competition risks; FX volatility; raw material price fluctuations; intellectual property infringements; ecommerce sales channel risks; and trade friction risks. 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