大华股份:股权激励方向清晰, 向AI to B蓝海进军

（以下内容从天风国际证券《大华股份:股权激励方向清晰, 向AI to B蓝海进军》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Dahua Technology (002236 CH) 股权激励方向清晰， 向AI to B蓝海进军 From AI to B2B: equity incentive plan drives Dahua’s strategic blue ocean buildout BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：2023年6月16日，公司发布2022年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划（草案），拟向激励对象授予权益总计14972.8万份，占本激励计划草案公告日公司总股本的5%，股票来源为公司向激励对象定向发行的本公司人民币A股普通股股票。其中：授予激励对象股票期权7486.40万份，行权价格为16.86元/份；授予限制性股票7486.40万股，授予价格为8.43元/股。本激励计划首次授予的激励对象共计4345人。 2022 draft plan sets a 5% option pool to incentivise 4,345 staff for the first time Stock option plan: Dahua Technology announced on 16 June 2023 a draft of its 2022 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan, detailing the granting of 149.73m shares to designated employees. The shares account for 5% of Dahua’s total share capital as of 16 June. Involving the company’s ordinary RMB-denominated A-shares, they comprise 74.86m stock options with an exercise price of RMB16.86 per share and 74.86m restricted shares with a price of RMB8.43 per share. A total of 4,345 incentive personnel will be awarded for the first time under this incentive plan. 点评：1）To B市场大潮下，AI将赋能各行各业，公司通过激励催化相关业务发展；2）行业格局得到改善，公司发展迎来新机遇。我们认为此次股票期权与限制性股票激励计划或将有效助力公司获得广阔发展空间。 Our takeaways: ·We think Dahua’s employee equity incentive plan will help catalyze its related businesses amid a rising B2B tide as AI empowers all industries. ·With an improving industry structure, Dahua is embracing new growth opportunities and we believe its stock option and restricted stock incentive plan will help the company broaden its market growth potential. 业绩增长空间广阔，激励机制可行性较高。本激励计划业绩考核要求为：以2021年净利润/营业收入为基数，公司层面业绩指标为2022年归属上市公司的净利润增长率/营业收入增长率不低于16%；以2022年净利润/营业收入为基数，公司层面业绩指标为2023-2024年归属上市公司的净利润增长率/营业收入增长率分别不低于35%、83%。2022年公司实现营业收入305.65亿元，归母净利润23.24亿元，我们认为公司存在较大的增长空间，本激励计划达成的可能性较高。此次激励计划中股票期权摊销成本为12892.42 万元，限制性股票摊销成本为摊销成本60490.11万元。限制性股票适用于不同的限售期，授予登记完成日与首次解除限售日间的间隔不得少于12个月。 Incentive mechanism: we see high feasibility and broad profit growth potential Triggers: the incentive plan triggers on the following company performance growth rates in net profit and revenue attributable to the listed company: at least 16% net profit and revenue growth in 2022 (vs 2021 results); and vs 2022 results, at least 35% growth rates in 2023 and at least 83% growth rates in 2024. Feasibility: Dahua generated revenue of RMB30.57bn and net profit of RMB2.32bn last year. We believe it has high growth potential and we regard the incentive plan objectives as highly feasible. The amortized cost of stock options in the incentive plan is RMB128.92m and the amortized cost of restricted shares is RMB604.90m. The restricted shares have different restriction periods and the interval between the date of completion of grant registration and the first release from restriction is at least 12 months. 激励计划覆盖4000+核心人员，充分调动人才积极性。本激励计划首次授予的激励对象共计4345人，其中：股票期权的激励对象中董事及高级管理人员合计10人，授予数量453.60万股，占授予总数的6.06%，核心骨干人员合计4335人，授予数量7032.80万股，占授予总数的93.94%；限制性股票激励对象中董事及高级管理人员合计10人，授予数量680.40万股，占总数的9.09%，核心骨干人员合计4335人，授予数量6806万股，占授予总数90.91%。本次激励计划有助于公司吸引和留住专业管理、核心技术和业务的优秀人才，充分调动公司核心团队的积极性与创造性。 Over 4,000 core personnel are involved; motivate and mobilize company talents A total of 4,345 personnel would be granted the incentives for the first time. The stock options to be granted to 10 directors and senior managers amounted to 4.54m shares (6.06% of total stock options) and the remaining 4,335 core backbone personnel would be granted 70.33m shares (93.94% of total stock options). The restricted stock incentives would be granted to 10 directors and senior managers at 6.80m shares (9.09% of the total), while 4,335 core backbone personnel would be awarded 68.0m shares (90.91% of the total). Dahua aims the plan at attracting and retaining outstanding talents in professional management, core technology and business, and to mobilize the core team and motivate their creativity. AI浪潮+to B市场打开，激励计划助力目标实现。在AI 快速发展大背景下，市场均处于发力端。公司继续发展工业互联网领域相关业务、智慧家庭、智慧消防、智慧存储、汽车电子、智慧安检等创新业务，为公司不断拓展新的高速增长点；在垂类领域，大模型助力客户降本，需求提升，推动to B渗透率快速增长。我们认为公司主业复苏存在明显机会，本激励计划有望充分激发人才活力，有效提升团队核心凝聚力以实现发展战略和经营目标。 Rising AI tide lifts B2B market; incentive plan aligns with Dahua’s goals Dahua is making forays into related innovative businesses such as industrial internet, smart homes, smart fire protection, smart storage, automotive electronics and smart security inspection to add new high-growth drivers for the company. In niche markets, big models help its customers reduce costs and improve demand, which escalates Dahua’s B2B penetration. We see clear recovery opportunities for the company’s main business. We expect the incentive plan will motivate its key talents and boost the team’s cohesiveness to help Dahua achieve its development strategies and business goals. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：AI浪潮+公司所在行业景气度持续提升的逻辑下，本激励计划将赋予公司长期增长动能，我们预测23/24/25年公司归母净利润分别为35.29亿元/45.79亿元/61.22亿元，维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Under the rationale that the rising AI tide would lift profitability in Dahua’s markets, we believe its employee equity incentive plan provides a long-term growth momentum. We forecast net profit will amount to RMB3.53bn/4.58bn/6.12bn in 2023/24/25E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：产业数字化发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧；技术应用进度不及预期风险。 Risks include: less-than-expected industrial digitalization growth; intensifying competition; and slower progress in technological applications than expected. 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