新澳股份:厚积薄发国产替代,优质小而美供应链激活成长

（以下内容从天风国际证券《新澳股份:厚积薄发国产替代,优质小而美供应链激活成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Xinao Textiles (603889 CH) 厚积薄发国产替代，优质小而美供应链激活成长 Xinao’s supply chain and nifty fulfillment capabilities come into play amid Chinese substitution trend BUY(maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 对于传统制造，我们认为在考虑行业景气度同时，更应自下而上关注赛道格局及公司竞争力释放。 公司主要业务为羊毛纱线及毛条、羊绒纱线研发生产和销售；近年来践行宽带发展战略，基于纺纱主业内进行品类多元化扩容，取得显著成效： Traditional manufacturing: focus on bottom-up trajectory and Xinao’s edge Xinao Textiles handles R&D and the production and sale of wool yarn, tops and cashmere yarn. The rollout of its wide-spectrum growth strategy in recent years has seen strong results as it diversified and expanded capacity based on the core spinning business: ①户外运动应用方面，羊毛穿着向多场景、新兴场景延伸，户外运动、野餐露营等羊毛室外穿搭场景消费热度攀升。公司探索开发多样化功能性纱线，推出户外运动纱线产品集锦卡，包括内层纱线、中间层&配饰类纱线、鞋袜类纱线，涵盖瑜伽、滑雪、徒步等各类运动场景。2022年毛精纺纱中供应运动户外品牌销量占比约 25%。 Outdoor sports wear: Xinao extended its woolen wear use scenarios to emerging markets and its multiple outdoor woolen wear consumption scenarios include sports, picnics and camping. In exploring diversifying into functional yarns, the company launched outdoor sports yarn collections, which include inner layers, middle layers and accessories, and footwear. Its sports wear scenarios cover yoga, skiing and hiking. Supplying worsted yarn volume sales to sports and outdoor brands accounted for about 25% of the total in 2022. ②羊绒纱线方面，通过整合新澳羊绒和英国邓肯两者优势资源，合力提升羊绒业务在全球影响力和市占率。其中新澳羊绒重视产品品质提升与工艺技术的创新，优化客户结构，扩大海外市场占比，促进产能释放；英国邓肯定位奢侈品市场，销量和营收均有增长。 Cashmere yarn: integrating the superior resources of subsidiaries Xinao Cashmere and UK-based Todd & Duncan increased the company’s global influence and enhanced its cashmere market share. Xinao Cashmere has upgraded product quality and made tech innovations, optimized the customer structure to expand its foreign markets, and is pushing to roll out production capacities. Todd & Duncan, which is positioned in the luxury market, has seen both sales and revenue rise. ③新型纱线方面，公司组织专门团队进行前期市场调研及样品开发，重视在家纺、室内装饰、产业用纱等新材料和技术工艺等方面的资源积累和客户拓展，结合潜在市场机会不断尝试丰富品类储备。 New yarns: the company established a special team to carry out preliminary market research and develop samples, focusing on building resources and gaining customers in the new materials and technical process industries, such as home textiles, interior decoration and industrial yarns. It aims to enrich its pipeline categories while expanding market opportunities. 此外，公司通过新建产能陆续释放及现有产能的提质增效，坚持积极的以产促销模式，实现产销协同，突破产能瓶颈，发挥规模效益。同时，优化管理体系和激励体系，坚持积极产销策略，强化绩效考核，通过目标指标分解、业绩挂钩奖励等创新措施，充分调动管理团队的积极性和主动性。 Production ramp-up: Xinao is working to roll out new production capacities and improve current production capacities. Its production advancement plan involves leveraging production and sales synergy to overcome production capacity hurdles and achieve economies of scale. Management: working to optimize its management and incentive systems, Xinao uses an aggressive production and marketing strategy: strengthening performance appraisals to motivate its management team and encouraging initiatives with innovative measures such as target index decomposition and performance-linked rewards. 营销拓展多措并举，市场动态精准把握 销售团队全力以赴接单，全面参与多层次市场竞争。公司销售团队主动赴海外抢单，参加SPINEXPO、ISPO等国际行业展会，深入了解市场和行业发展趋势及客户的需求，奠定与客户的合作基础。营销策略方面：①通过对市场流行趋势的研判，向全球客户定期发布针织流行趋势，以自身设计优势引导客户选择；②通过内部数据分析，研究市场需求，指导精准备货，并以小批量、多品种、快翻新的产业链及产能规模优势，快速响应订单需求；③不断探索营销新模式，搭建了以公众号、抖音、小红书、视频号、Instagram为主的新媒体矩阵，以多样化表现形式传递文化，提升终端消费市场中的知名度和形象，同时为新产品的市场开拓提供新的方向。 Expanding marketing: multiple measures to grasp market dynamics accurately The sales team not only receives orders but also participates in multi-level marketing competitions. It took the initiative to travel overseas to win orders and participated in international trade shows such as Spinexpo and ISPO to gain insights into market development trends and customer needs to set the ground for cooperating with customers. The company’s marketing strategy consists of: ·sending regular knitting trend updates to global customers on studying market trends and guiding customer choices by leveraging the company’s design edge; ·researching market demand via internal data analysis, guiding the precise preparation of goods, and responding quickly to order demand by leveraging the company’s supply chain advantages and production advantages such as small batches, multi-categories and quick revamps; ·exploring new modes of marketing and building a new media matrix based on public accounts, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, video accounts and Instagram to express culture in diverse ways and enhance the company’s brand visibility and profile in the end-consumer market, while setting new directions to develop and market new products. 优质客户具备复苏韧性，户外运动赛道景气度好 近年来消费分层加剧，中高端及奢侈品牌由于核心客群消费能力受损有限，呈现韧性强、复苏快的特点，户外运动景气度相对较好。头部品牌对于供应商的选择有一套较为复杂、严格的认证流程，仅少数企业有能力进入高端市场领域参与综合竞争。新澳凭借丰富的行业经验、良好的市场口碑以及较强的开发设计能力，成为众多优质品牌客户的指定纱线供应商，与他们形成长期稳定的合作关系。公司服务于全球约5000多家客户、500 多个品牌，客户资源壁垒相对深厚。 Quality customers: better resilience and recovery; robust outdoor sports market The consumer market has become more stratified in recent years: higher-end and luxury brands demonstrate strong resilience and a fast recovery because their core customer pool’s spending power is less affected and this has enabled a relatively active outdoor sports market. Top brands also have a more complex and stricter certification process to select suppliers and only a few companies have the ability to participate in the high-end market’s comprehensive competitive rigors. Xinao’s industry experience, good market reputation, and development and design capabilities have made it the designated yarn supplier to many quality brand customers, with whom it has established stable long-term ties. The company serves more than 5,000 customers and 500 brands worldwide, and its customer resources are relatively sticky. 市场关注点在为何传统织制估值有提升空间，我们认为如果细分格局发生变化特别是此前若由外资主导，则我国传统优质制造厚积薄发借助技术升级、品类延展、服务交期、市场开拓等多重优势有望加速国产替代进程；期间将伴随预期差释放带来的估值修复及市值兑现。 The market is focusing on factors that could drive an improvement in traditional weaving stock valuations. We are looking at structural market changes, especially if it was previously dominated by foreign-funded players. China’s quality traditional manufacturers are likely to accelerate the process of domestic substitution by leveraging multiple advantages: ramp up technology upgrades and expand categories, service deliveries and market development. We expect the process will bring about valuation restoration and realize market value. 我国传统纺织制造经过多年沉淀及分化，我们认为当前尚专注主业及持续进步的企业已经历内资竞争，当走向世界直面品牌，公司诸多优势有望加速释放，从当年的小舞台走向大舞台。 China’s traditional textile manufacturing market has expanded and evolved through the years, and we believe the domestic players are focused on their core business. Having handled competition in the Chinese market, we believe they will be well armed to face off global brands. We expect their multiple advantages will accelerate the transition from the domestic market to the global sphere. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 近年来，毛纺行业的重新洗牌使小而散的企业逐步被市场边缘化进而淘汰。随着行业集中度提高，公司作为龙头企业韧性发展、逆势而上，市场份额提升空间仍然较大。我们预计公司 23-25 年归母净利润分别为 4.6、5.6、6.7 亿，PE 分别为 11、9、8x。 Valuation and risks In the reshuffle of companies in the fragmented wool spinning industry, small players are being marginalized and squeezed out. As industry concentration rises, so does Xinao Textiles’ leading position, as it bucks the market trend due to its resilience. We see immense potential for its market share growth. We maintain our 2023/24/25E profit forecast at RMB460m/560m/670m, with PE corresponding to 11/9/8x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：羊毛、羊绒等原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；贸易风险；产能释放不及预期等风险 Risks include: wool and cashmere price fluctuations; FX volatility; trade risks; and lower-than-expected production capacities. 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