豪悦护理:卡位个护中高端赛道,产品力领先夯实竞争优势

（以下内容从天风国际证券《豪悦护理:卡位个护中高端赛道,产品力领先夯实竞争优势》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care (605009 CH) 卡位个护中高端赛道，产品力领先夯实竞争优势 Resuming coverage: personal care higher-end positioning; strong products hone Haoyue’s competitive advantage TP:RMB67.60 BUY 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis ODM龙头经营稳健典范，Q1收入略超预期，全年增长更值得期待。23Q1、22全年营收6.3亿（+22.8%）、28.0亿（+13.8%），我们预计23年全年收入34亿，+21%。23Q1、22全年归母净利润0.79亿+44.6% 、4.2亿+16.6%，22归母净利率15.1%；22年净利率逐季提升。 Q1 revenue slightly above expectations and adds anticipation of 2023E growth ODM leader Haoyue Personal Care is a model for stable operations, judging by its recent performance. 2022 revenue rose 13.8% to RMB2.80bn and 23Q1 revenue hiked 22.8% to RMB630m. 2022 net profit rose 16.6% to RMB420m and 23Q1 net profit shot up 44.6% to RMB79m. 2022 net margin was 15.1%, rising with every quarter last year. We forecast 2023E revenue will rise 21% to RMB3.4bn. 婴裤核心客户份额显著提升，引领复合芯体产品升级迭代。22年前五大客户销售占比75.5%，前五大客户占比20-22年提升了16.28pct。babycare、金佰利、尤妮佳、BEABA竞争优势强，份额持续提升。根据欧睿国际数据，国内市场婴儿卫生用品CR10从2020年的49.8%提升至2022年的58.8%，CR3从2020年的31.4%提升至2022年的35.6%。其中babycare市场份额从2020年的1.6%提升至2022年的4.4%，BEABA市场份额从2020年的0.8%提升至2022年的3.3%，公司客户竞争优势强，叠加复合芯体产品持续升级迭代，中高端个护产品终端销售向好，下游行业集中度持续提升。 Baby diaper pants: core customers growth; integrated core upgrades and iteration Its top five customers accounted for 75.5% of Haoyue’s sales in 2022, expanding 16.28ppt over 2020-22. Babycare, Kimberly-Clark, Unicharm and BEABA have strong competitive advantages and their market shares continue to increase. Euromonitor International data show that CR10 of China’s baby hygiene product market expanded from 49.8% in 2020 to 58.8% in 2022, and its CR3 proportion grew from 31.4% in 2020 to 35.6% in 2022. Within this, Babycare’s share of the market increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 4.4% in 2022, and BEABA’s increased from 0.8% to 3.3% in the period. Haoyue’s customers have strong competitive advantages and it continues to upgrade and iterate integrated core products. Meanwhile, end-market sales are growing in higher-end personal care products and downstream market concentration is rising. 持续推进产品多元化，新产品更待发力。22年其他产品收入0.87亿元，同比+44%，主要是湿巾产品、复合芯体收入增加，预计23年将持续保持高增速。展望中短期，可穿脱安心裤及超透气新型材料有望推动行业新一轮产品变革，新品上市更值得期待。从行业层面看，近三年女性卫生护理用品头部份额较为稳定，2020-2022年CR10均约40%左右，参考上一轮公司推出“内裤式”经期裤引领行业替代部分夜用卫生巾产品，新产品可穿脱安心裤更值得期待。 Pushing product diversification while developing new products Revenue from the “other products” segment came to RMB87m in 2022, up 44%, mainly driven by wet wipes and integrated core products. We expect the segment will maintain high growth in 2023E. We believe the new sanitary panties and their ultra-breathable new materials will drive a new round of product changes in the industry for the short to medium term and we look forward to new product launches. Industry-wise, leading female hygiene care producers’ market shares have been stable in the past three years. The industry’s CR10 collectively averaged a share of about 40% over 2020-22. The launch of sanitary panties had led to some replacement of night-use sanitary napkin products, so we look forward to the launch of its new night-safe sanitary panties. 产能逐步理顺，拓展东南亚自主品牌市场，国内自主品牌稳健发展。22年境外实现收入2.61亿，同比下滑1.84%，22年泰国工厂搬迁完成并逐步投产，自主品牌sunnybaby进驻泰国主要商超，看好23年出口业务提速。 Straightening capacity kinks; rising SEA market for proprietary Chinese brands Haoyue’s foreign market revenue amounted to RMB261m in 2022, down 1.84%. Last year saw a relocation to the Thai factory, which it completed and put into production. Haoyue’s independent brand, Sunny Baby, entered major supermarkets in Thailand. We are bullish about fast growth of its export business in 2023E. 22年公司毛利率持续优化，目前原材料价格处于下行通道，新品毛利率高更待贡献利润弹性。盈利能力方面，公司22年毛利率23.2%，22Q4毛利率24.8%同增5.5pct，Q4毛利率较前三季提升，2022年原油价格处于高位，22年公司单片材料成本价格为0.52元/片，同比+5.04%。随着22年下半年石油价格下行，无纺布价格回落，预计将带来成本端的改善。 2022 gross margin improved; raw material prices currently trending downward The company’s high-gross-margin new products have yet to contribute to its profit elasticity. A look at its profitability shows gross margin was 23.2% in 2022; and it rose 5.5ppt yoy to 24.8% in 22Q4, outperforming the previous three quarters. Crude oil prices remained at high levels in 2022 and cost of materials was at RMB0.52/piece, up 5.04%. With oil prices down in 22H2, non-woven fabric prices similarly declined, which would have helped improve cost. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值：公司为个护领域领先制造商，深度绑定行业头部品牌，精耕细作供应链，原材料价格下行&新品上市带来利润弹性。创新研发能力强，新品上市有望推动行业新一轮产品变革，收入增速领跑行业，结构性增长可持续。随着新工厂产能释放、国外自主品牌销售团队的搭建完善，竞争优势有望进一步加强。预计23-25年归母净利润分别为5.2/6.6/7.6亿，对应15/12/11xPE，参考可比公司平均PE，给予公司23年20倍PE，目标价67.6元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Haoyue is a leading personal care product manufacturer and has strong ties with its top brand partners. It fine-tuned its supply chain network and raw material prices have been falling; meanwhile, new product launches increase profit elasticity. Leveraging strong innovation and R&D capabilities, we expect its product launches will start off a new round of product changes in the industry. Haoyue leads the market in revenue growth as well as sustainable structural growth. We expect its competitive advantage will increase with the rollout of new factories that add production capacities and it sets up sales teams for independent foreign brands. We forecast net profit of RMB525m/657m/758m in 2023/24/25E, corresponding to 15/12/11x PE. Relative to average peer PE, we assign a 20x PE in 2023E to Haoyue, with our target price at RMB67.60. We resume coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争加剧，客户集中度较高，原材料价格波动，婴儿出生率下降风险。 Risks include: intensifying competition; high customer concentration; volatile raw material prices; and declining birth rate risks. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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