通富微电: 23Q1短期业绩承压,周期复苏+ChatGPT+Chiplet三轮驱动23年业绩有望逐季向好

（以下内容从天风国际证券《通富微电: 23Q1短期业绩承压,周期复苏+ChatGPT+Chiplet三轮驱动23年业绩有望逐季向好》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Tongfu Microelectronics (002156 CH) 23Q1短期业绩承压，周期复苏+ChatGPT+Chiplet三轮驱动23年业绩有望逐季向好 23Q1 under short-term pressure; cyclical upturn, ChatGPT and chiplet drivers could revive the remaining quarters BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2023年度一季报。2023年第一季度公司实现营业收入46.42亿元，同比增长3.11%；实现归母净利润0.05亿元，同比下降97.24%；实现扣非后归母净利润-0.46亿元，同比下降131.72%。 点评：23Q1业绩短期承压，看好周期复苏下公司23年业绩逐季度回升，与AMD深度绑定有望充分受益Chiplet及高性能计算芯片未来的广阔前景，先进封装+多产品线+海内外布局驱动长期发展。公司23Q1业绩下滑主要系：1）受外部经济环境及行业周期波动的影响，全球消费电子市场需求低迷，公司产能利用率下降，造成毛利减少所致。2）费用端，财务费用、研发费用均有所增加。3）营业外收入端，收到政策性补助减少，同比下降99.3%。 RMB46m ex-nonrecurring loss in Q1; we expect gradual quarterly recovery ahead Tongfu Microelectronics published first quarterly results for 2023: it generated RMB4.64bn revenue, up 3.11% yoy, and RMB5m net profit, down 97.24% yoy, while excluding nonrecurring items it made a loss of RMB46m, down 131.72% yoy. 23Q1 was under short-term pressure but we anticipate quarterly improvements for the rest of the year, as business benefits from a cyclical recovery, driven by long-term growth catalysts in chiplets, high-performance computing chips (with AMD as its client), advanced packaging, multiple product lines and an international buildout. We attribute the 23Q1 decline mainly to these factors: ·macroeconomic and industry cycle volatility, while sluggish global consumer electronics demand dragged production capacity utilization rates and gross profit; ·higher financial and R&D expenses; and ·a 99.3% yoy drop in policy subsidies affected non-business revenue. 周期底部复苏，公司23年稼动率/业绩有望逐季度环比提升，募投项目为复苏后的长期发展蓄能。稼动率方面，公司截至23Q1稼动率/订单约连续下降3-4个季度，接近历史下行季度数，我们预计公司订单或将于第二季度回升，有望逐季度环比增长。产线建设方面，公司2022年非公开发行募资26.93亿元，前瞻性布局存储器芯片、高性能计算、5G等高前景领域，2022年11月已完成发行全部手续。2020年募投项目进展顺利，其中，集成电路封装测试二期工程、高性能中央处理器等集成电路封装测试项目于 2022 年 7 月投产，2022 年 7 月-12 月，该等项目实现效益 0.5亿元，项目经营活动产生的现金净流量2.11亿元。 2022 proceeds for high-potential markets; 2020 fundraising projects rolled out We believe business weakness has run its course and expect Tongfu will recover in 2023E as utilization rates vs business performance increase quarter by quarter, while its fundraising projects build momentum for long-term growth. Utilization rates/orders had dropped for 3-4 straight quarters, similar to its historical trend. We expect orders are picking up in this second quarter and will edge up in the remaining quarters of 2023E. To build out its production line capacity, Tongfu raised RMB2.69bn in non-public offerings in 2022 to drive its forward-looking production buildout for high-potential markets such as memory chips, high-performance computing and 5G. All issuance procedures were completed by November 2022. Meanwhile, its 2020 fundraising and investment projects have been progressing smoothly. Phase II integrated circuit (IC) packaging and testing, high-performance central processors and other IC packaging and testing projects commenced production in July 2022. The projects gained benefits of RMB50m and net cash flow from project operating activities amounted to RMB211m over July to December 2022. ChatGPT+地缘政治催化，GPU 或 CPU+FPGA 等是算力支撑，技术端Chiplet有望带动封测板块地位+价值量+壁垒提升，公司持续推进 5nm、4nm、3nm 新品研发，深度受益于与AMD的合作以及高性能计算芯片未来的广阔前景。1）大算力时代下，Chiplet是AIGC时代下不可或缺的关键一环。Chiplet通过①同构扩展提升晶体管数量，算力成倍提升。②异构集成大算力芯片，算力指数级提升，两大方案助力满足ChatGPT大数据+大模型+大算力需求。2）地缘政治影响下，我们认为Chiplet或为打破国产制程瓶颈的关键方案。美国政府对中国半导体产业打压已久，我国先进制程突破及算力问题亟待解决，Chiplet或在一定程度上拉近了国内厂商与国际先进厂商的起跑线，中国有机会突破限制问题。Chiplet在制造环节的核心是“先进封装”技术，国内Chiplet封装产业技术积累深厚，有望与掌握先进制程国家同步受益。3）Chiplet中2.5D、3D Chiplet 中高速互联封装连接及TSV等提升封装价值量，我们预测有望较传统封装提升双倍以上价值量，带来较高产业弹性。4）从硬件角度看，ChatGPT以GPU 或 CPU+FPGA 等作为算力支撑，对高性能计算的应用需求迭起。根据 TrendForce 预测，2021 年-2027年全球高性能计算市场规模将从368亿美元增长至568亿美元，复合年均增长率为 7.5%。5）公司与AMD形成 的“合资+合作”模式，伴随其产品迭代，将深度受益Chiplet及高性能计算芯片未来的广阔前景。AMD已实现了 CPU+GPU+FPGA 的全方位布局，且Chiplet技术布局领先，公司是 AMD 最大的封装测试供应商，占其订单总数的 80%以上。截至23年5月，AMDzen5即将发布，公司已具备 zen5 相关封测技术，将全力配合国际大客户产品的更新迭代，相关产品正在验证生产过程中。 ChatGPT, geopolitical catalysts lift computing demand; plus GPU, CPU and FPGA We expect chiplet technology will raise the status and value of the packaging and testing industry, while erecting competitive barriers. Benefiting from its collaborations with AMD, Tongfu is growing new products like 5nm, 4nm and 3nm to fulfill high-performance computing chip prospects. Chiplets are indispensable for AIGC in the era of large computing power: they increase the number of transistors through two routes, which together help fulfill ChatGPT big data, big language model and large computing demand: ·homogeneous expansion multiplies computing power; and ·heterogeneous integration of large computing power chips exponentially increases computing power. Chiplets could help ease the geopolitcal bottleneck in Chinese manufacturing: to break the longstanding policy clamp by the US government on China’s semiconductor industry, China needs to urgently master advanced manufacturing processes and resolve computing power issues. Chiplets could help Chinese manufacturers shorten the learning curve in internationally advanced manufacturing and provide an opportunity to jump regulatory hurdles. Advanced packaging technology is the root of chiplet manufacturing processes. The country’s chiplet packaging industry has deeply amassed the technological know-how and could benefit alongside countries that have mastered advanced manufacturing processes. 2.5D and 3D mid-to-high-speed integrated packaging connection chiplets and TSV chiplets raise the value of the packaging market. We project these could more than double the value of the traditional packaging industry and increase industrial elasticity. ChatGPT hardware include GPUs, CPUs and FPGA to support its computing power, while high-performance computing application requirements keep increasing. According to TrendForce, the global high-performance computing market will grow to USD56.8bn in 2027E from USD36.8bn in 2021, a CAGR of 7.5%. Tongfu-AMD relationship: the strategic partnership with AMD is based on a JV-and-cooperation model and it would greatly benefit from the wide application prospects of chiplets and high-performance computing chips, including related product iterations. AMD has completed the integrated development of CPU, GPU and FPGA, and leads the market in chiplet technological buildout. As AMD’s largest packaging and testing supplier, Tongfu accounts for over 80% of its total orders. AMD Zen5 is set to launch soon as of May 2023. Tongfu has mastered Zen5-related packaging and testing technology, and is positioned to cooperate fully with major international customers on upgrades and product iteration. Related products are currently under production verification. 先进封装重要性及占比或持续提升，公司在 Chiplet、WLP、SiP、Fanout、2.5D、3D 堆叠等先进封装方面储备深厚。2022年12月中国首个原生 Chiplet 技术标准发布，伴随Chiplet技术的发展以及国产化替代进程加速，先进封装技术在封装市场的占比或逐步提升。预计到2026先进封装将占整个封装市场规模的 50%以上。1）Chiplet技术方面，公司通过在多芯片组件、集成扇出封装、2.5D/3D 等先进封装技术方面的提前布局，可为客户提供多样化的Chiplet封装解决方案并已量产，基于 Chip Last 工艺的 Fan-out 技术，实现 5层RDL 超大尺寸封装（65×65mm），超大多芯片 FCBGA MCM 技术，实现最高 13 颗芯片集成及 100×100mm 以上超大封装。2）FC产品方面，除通富超威苏州、通富超威槟城之外的 FC 产品有序上量，把握住重点客户市场机会，22年销售额达10.8亿元，同比增长35%，实现经济效益较大提升。 Advanced packaging: value and proportion of packaging market set to rise Comprising half of packaging market by 2026E: The company has rich reserves of advanced packaging products, including chiplets, WLP, SiP, fan-out, 2.5D and 3D stacking. China launched its first native chiplet technology standard in December 2022. As chiplet technology progresses and import substitution accelerates, the proportion of advanced technology packaging in the packaging market would expand gradually; and we project it will account for more than 50% of the packaging market by 2026E. Chiplet technologies: Tongfu supplies customers with a variety of chiplet packaging solutions and offers mass production with its advanced product buildout of advanced packaging technologies like multi-chip components, integrated fan-out packaging, and 2.5D and 3D. Based on fan-out technology used in the chip-last process, it created five-tier RDL super-large packaging (65×65mm) and super multi-chip FCBGA MCM technology to realize up to 13 chip integrations and super-large packaging of 100×100mm or more. FC products: other than Tongfu Chaowei Suzhou and Tongfu Chaowei Penang, the company’s FC product volumes have ramped up smoothly as it seized market opportunities provided by key customers. Sales volume amounted to RMB1.08bn in 2022, an increase of 35% yoy, providing better economic benefits. 大功率、存储、射频封装技术布局全面，覆盖多产品线、多领域助力海内外客户开拓。1）大功率模块技术方面，公司研发的车载双面高散热模块，将散热性能提升60%，体积减少 80%，目前已进入实车测试。光伏高功率模块方面，公司产品不断迭代升级，已进入稳定量产阶段。2）存储芯片技术方面公司研发的国产超薄存储器封装，其定制化材料与结构设计实现翘曲精准控制；对于国产下一代 Flash 封装技术，实现了堆叠和超厚/复杂金属层切割控制。3）射频芯片方面，对于国产射频模块封装，实现了同一封装内满足不同芯片需求，集成度逐步提升。凭借各产品线和领域的全面布局，公司5 亿级业务客户从2021年的3 家发展到2022年的6家。同时与海外客户的合作持续深化，抓住新能源与车载应用市场增长机遇，实现 IGBT, SiC 以及大功率模块封装产品的高速增长，年增速超100%；车载 MCU 顺利通过车厂一级供应商考核，帮助和推动客户加快实现供应链自主可控战略落地，为公司 LQFP 产品升级夯实基础。基于公司 WLCSP 以及 DRQFN 平台，成功导入全球首个支持 Matter 协议WIFI 6E SoC 产品，深化公司在物联网领域拓展以及方案服务能力。 Integrated buildup: high-power, storage, radio frequency packaging technologies; multiple product and market coverage aids Chinese and international customers High-power modules: Tongfu has developed in-vehicle double-sided high-radiation modules that improve heat dissipation by 60% and reduces volume by 80%; the module has started field tests. As for photovoltaic high-power modules, its products have been upgraded iteratively and reached stable mass production. Memory chips: the company developed ultra-thin memory packaging and customized materials and structural designs that precisely control warpage. In terms of next-generation Chinese flash packaging technology, it has mastered stacking and ultra-thick/complex metal layer cutting control. RF chips: Chinese radio frequency module packaging uses RF chips as they fulfill requirements for different chips within the same package to gradually improving integration levels. With an integrated matrix of multiple product lines and applications, Tongfu increased its RMB500m-level business customers from 3 in 2021 to 6 in 2022. It is deepening ties with global customers and seizing opportunities in the new energy and automotive application markets, which has propelled growth of its IGBT, SiC and high-power module packaging products to over 100% p.a. Its in-vehicle MCU has cleared assessment by first-tier vehicle manufacturers, helping customers to accelerate their implementation of an independent and controllable supply chain strategy, while laying a solid basis for its LQFP product upgrades. Based on Tongfu’s WLCSP and DRQFN platforms, it launched the world’s first wifi 6E SoC that supports the Matter protocol, enhancing its expansion and solution service capabilities in IOT applications. 员工持股计划基础上进一步推出股票期权激励计划，体现了公司对未来发展的信心和决心。2022 年上半年，公司在员工持股计划的基础上，进一步推出股票期权激励计划，激励力度较第一期员工持股计划明显增加，业绩考核目标大幅提升。2022 年6月份，第一期员工持股计划完成了 40%股票的解锁、售出、分配工作。股票期权激励计划及员工持股计划的开展，有利于充分调动公司核心骨干人员的积极性、主动性和创造性。 Beefed up employee stock option incentives on greater confidence Tongfu launched a stock option incentive plan in 22H1, based on its earlier employee stock option incentive plan, reflecting its confidence and greater determination to drive future growth. Phase 2 increased the incentives significantly and greatly increased performance appraisal targets. Phase 1 had completed the unlocking, selling and distribution of 40% of the shares by June 2022. The stock option incentive plan and employee stock ownership plan aim to motivate the company’s core backbone personnel, and encourage initiative and creativity. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司背靠AMD大客户，先进封装布局领先收效显著，但受通讯终端、消费电子及 PC等需求严重衰退影响，公司产能利用率及毛利率下降，我们下调盈利预测，预计2023年归母净利润由9亿元下调至6.33亿元，预测2024/2025年实现归母净利润10.55/13.3亿元，维持公司“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Tongful Microelectronics’ business, which enjoys strong support from major customer AMD, has made remarkable progress in advanced packaging development. We attribute its capacity utilization and gross margin decline to a sharp drop in demand for communication terminals, consumer electronics and PCs. To reflect this, we lower our net profit forecast for 2023E to RMB633m (from RMB900m), with our 2024/25E net profit forecast at RMB1.06bn/1.33bn. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、客户集中风险、研发不及预期风险、市场竞争加剧风险等 Risks include: macroeconomic downside; customer concentration risks; R&D outcomes falling short of expectations; and intensifying competition. 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