洁美科技:23Q1销量修复,扩产增能与高端转型稳步推进

（以下内容从天风国际证券《洁美科技:23Q1销量修复,扩产增能与高端转型稳步推进》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic & Technology (002859 CH) 23Q1销量修复，扩产增能与高端转型稳步推进 23Q1 sales recovery on steady capacity expansion and higher-end business ramp-up BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：洁美科技发布2023年一季报：2023年Q1公司实现营收3.08亿元，yoy-6.05%；归母净利润0.32亿元，yoy-1.71%；扣非归母净利润0.31亿元，yoy-3.96%。 Unique positioning as integrated Chinese producer for global tape market Q1 key metrics: Jiemei released 23Q1 results: revenue fell 6.05% yoy to RMB308m and net profit dipped 1.71% yoy to RMB32m, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB31m, down 3.96% yoy. 点评：公司秉持横、纵向“产业链一体化”发展理念，是国内唯一集分切、打孔、压孔、胶带、塑料载带、离型膜生产于一体的综合配套生产企业。2023年Q1随着下游需求复苏，订单量稳步恢复，盈利能力持续增强。长期看好公司在MLCC、半导体等需求复苏上行的背景下，持续推进扩产项目，离型膜中高端产品按计划验证中，打造成长新动力。 Takeaways: the company’s integrated value chain model covering both horizontal and vertical markets gives it a unique positioning: it is the only Chinese integrated producer providing tape slitting, punching and pressing support, while producing adhesive and plastic carrier tapes and release films. 23Q1 tracked a downstream demand recovery as orders steadily improved and profitability ticked up. From here, we are bullish about the company’s long-term prospects in view of potential upside to a demand return in MLCC, semiconductors and other markets. Jiemei continues to push expansion project plans for higher-end release film products, which would provide new growth momentum as they gain market verifications. 1. 毛利率环比上升，营收基本持平，业绩稳步恢复。 （1）2023Q1订单量稳步恢复，盈利能力持续增强：2023年Q1公司实现营收3.08亿元，yoy-6.05%；归母净利润0.32亿元，yoy-1.71%；扣非归母净利润0.31亿元，yoy-3.96%。23Q1销量与22Q4基本持平，考虑春节假期影响，销量实际呈增长态势，其中1-2月为弱修复，3月业绩增长显著。2023Q1公司销售毛利率达32.41%，同比下降0.08%，环比上升5.47%,盈利能力持续增强。（2）纸质载带稼动率超过6成，毛利率已经恢复到正常水平；离型膜稼动率略低，已部分恢复；流延膜目前处于满产状态。 Gross margin expand qoq, flat revenue and steady climb in profitability ·23Q1 orders and profitability recovered steadily: revenue arrived at RMB308m in the quarter, down 6.05% yoy, and net profit was RMB32m, down 1.71% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB31m, down 3.96% yoy. Sales volume growth was flat vs 22Q4; however, considering the Chinese New Year holiday impact, sales volume actually grew. Sales volume was weak over January and February, while it shot up in March. 23Q1 sales gross margin was at 32.41%, down 0.08ppt yoy while the qoq trend lifted 5.47ppt. ·Production utilization: paper carrier tape had a utilization rate of over 60% in the quarter, and gross margin normalized; release film had a slightly lower utilization rate and partially recovered; while cast film is experiencing full utilization. 2.稳步推进扩产计划，以需求导向规划产能驱动。 （1）公司计划未来纸质载带再投产，规划电子专用原纸生产线，将带来新增年产能2.88万吨。（2）基膜BOPET膜二期项目已经启动，建成后将新增2万吨/年，投产后达3.8万吨/年。（3）离型膜肇庆基地建设进展顺利，布局2条离型膜涂布生产线，达产后将新增1亿平米/年产能；天津基地进入前期设计阶段。（4）流延膜2022Q4实现满产满销，新能源汽车产销量带动铝塑膜用流延膜订单增长，客户验证稳步推进；光电显示用流延膜产品已逐步导入下游客户。二期项目预计2023年底投产，投产后总产能翻番达年产6000吨。 Production ramp-up plan going smoothly; capacities reflect demand projections ·Paper carrier tape: the company plans to produce paper carrier tape again and to add a base paper production line for the electronics market, which would add 28.8ktpa capacity. ·Base film BOPET film phase 2 project has started: when completed, it would add 20ktpa, and when fully operational, it would add 38ktpa. ·Release film: construction of the Zhaoqing release film facility is progressing smoothly and two release film coating production lines have been deployed. When ready, it will add 100m sqm p.a. of production capacity. Meanwhile, the Tianjin facility has entered the preliminary design stage. ·Cast film reached full production and sales in 22Q4. NEV production and sales have driven an increase in orders for aluminum-plastic cast film and customer verifications are advancing. Cast film products for photoelectric displays are being introduced to downstream customers. Phase 2 of the project is slated to roll out by end-2023E and total production capacity would then double to 6ktpa. 3. 离型膜中高端产品按计划验证，坚定技术核心优势导向。 （1）高端离型膜按计划推动客户验证：公司自制基膜的中高端离型膜2022年下半年起给海外客户送样，目前客户正在按计划验证及小批量试用。同时，国内客户切换使用自制基膜，今年一季度及二季度部分客户切换完成。（2）中高端离型膜产品放量有望带动未来业绩爬坡：公司目前离型膜的整体毛利率还比较低，但是随着中高端的产品放量以及离型膜基膜自制有望改善和提升毛利率，偏光片等中高端产品也在持续导入客户端。（3）产品高端迭代需工艺配方与生产设备双轮驱动，并面向客户实际需求，公司将坚定技术优势、客户优势及产品品类优势等核心优势，以技术引领开拓发展前景。 Premium release film: higher-end products get verified; core tech edge in play ·Verifications coming through: Jiemei’s premium release film category is gaining customer verifications according to plan. It submitted higher-end release film products using proprietary base film to foreign customers in 22H2 and customers are verifying and trialing them in small batches as planned. Its Chinese customers have also switched to its proprietary base films, some doing so in 23Q1-2. ·Volume rise: we expect volume of higher-end release film products to drive a future profitability uptrend. The company’s current total release film gross margin is relatively small but with the ramp-up of higher-end product volume and proprietary release film base film, we expect gross margin will increase as customers continue to import its polarizers and other high-end products. ·High-end iteration of products is based on the synergy of process formula and production equipment to orient the products to customer needs. We believe the company will strengthen its core advantages including tech, customers and product categories, and use technology to drive its development prospects. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：长期看好公司在下游需求增长背景下，三大业务协同发展，持续推进扩产，同时开拓半导体下游+发展离型膜业务，打造成长新动力。考虑下游波动、原材料成本上涨等因素对公司业绩的影响，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计23-24年归母净利润2.90/5.13亿元（原值为7.44/8.38亿元），新增25年归母净利润预期为6.75亿元，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We are bullish about Jiemei’s three-pronged growth model as it creates new growth momentum by synergizing production expansion with semiconductor downstream market growth and release film business growth. We lower our 2023/24E net profit forecasts to RMB290m/513m (previously RMB744m/838m) to reflect the impact of downstream market volatility and rising raw material costs; and introduce our 2025E net profit forecast at RMB675m. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：销量不及预期；行业竞争激烈；汇率波动风险等。 Risks include: lower-than-expected sales; stiff competition; and FX volatility. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）