华天科技:23Q1周期下行压力尤在,看好周期复苏下业绩逐季修复
（以下内容从天风国际证券《华天科技:23Q1周期下行压力尤在,看好周期复苏下业绩逐季修复》研报附件原文摘录）
Tianshui Huatian Technology (002185 CH) 23Q1周期下行压力尤在，看好周期复苏下业绩逐季修复 23Q1 was under cyclical pressure; from here, we anticipate a business recovery quarter by quarter BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2023年第一季度报告。23Q1公司实现营业收入22.39亿元，同比-25.56%；实现归母净利润-1.06亿元，同比-151.43%；实现扣非后归母净利润-1.82亿元，同比-222.67%。 Post Q1 weakness, we see cyclical factors bottoming out to a gradual recovery Key Q1 metrics: Huatian Technology released 23Q1 results: revenue arrived at RMB2.24bn, down 25.56% yoy; the company made a net loss of RMB106m in the quarter (down 151.43% yoy), with a net loss of RMB182m excluding nonrecurring items (down 222.67% yoy). 点评：公司汽车电子客户开拓、高算力先进封装产品量产进展顺利，为周期复苏及长期发展蓄能。23Q1利润下滑主要系终端市场产品需求下降，集成电路行业景气度下滑，订单不饱满，产能利用率不足，整体利润率下降所致。 Q1 drag factors: Huatian’s efforts to build up its automotive electronics customer pool and ramp up mass production of high-computing-power advanced packaging products are going well, revving up a cyclical recovery and long-term growth. As for the 23Q1 profit decline, we attribute a decline in the end-product market, softening IC market, less-than-full order books, inadequate capacity utilization and a total profit margin decline. 周期方面：周期底部或复苏，公司23年稼动率/业绩有望逐季度环比提升。公司截至23Q1稼动率/订单约连续下降5个季度，接近历史下行季度数（18Q1-19Q3连续7个季度下行），我们预计公司订单或将于第二季度回升，有望逐季度环比增长。 2023 growth outlook: with the cyclical weakness bottoming out, we expect the company’s utilization rates and performance will improve quarter by quarter through 2023. Utilization rates and orders have declined in five straight quarters to 23Q1 (reminiscent of the seven straight quarters of decline in 18Q1-19Q3). However, we believe orders could pick up in Q2 and grow gradually quarter by quarter. 产能产品及客户方面：协同各子公司拓展产能、优化客户结构，募投项目进展顺利 截至2022年末，公司已使用募集资金 43.28 亿元，为公司进一步扩大产业规模提供发展空间，推进战略客户开发和客户结构优化工作。在新生产基地建设方面，韶华科技已完成一期厂房及配套设施建设，并于 2022 年 8 月投产；华天江苏积极开展项目建设的各项准备工作；Unisem Gopeng 项目正在进行厂房建设。产能方面，2022年度公司集成电路封装产品已涵盖DIP/SDIP、SOT、SOP、SSOP、TSSOP/ETSSOP、QFP/LQFP/TQFP、QFN/DFN、BGA/LGA、FC、MCM（MCP）、SiP、WLP、TSV、Bumping、MEMS、Fan-Out 等多个系列。大尺寸 FCBGA 高算力系列产品和高端存储产品均实现批量生产。产品主要应用于计算机、网络通讯、消费电子及智能移动终端、物联网、工业自动化控制、汽车电子等电子整机和智能化领域。客户方面，2022年度公司导入客户 237 家，通过 6 家国内外汽车终端及汽车零部件企业审核，引入 42 家汽车电子客户，涉及 202 个汽车电子项目。 Capacity, products and customers: working with subsidiaries to expand capacity and optimize customer mix; fundraising projects progressing smoothly Of its fundraising proceeds, Huatian utilized RMB4.33bn as of end-2022 to expand future growth headroom by expanding its industrial scale, strategic customers and optimize its customer mix. Capacity ramp-up: Shaohua Technology completed the phase I construction of its plant and support facilities, and it commenced operation in August 2022; Huatian Jiangsu is prepping for project construction; while Unisem’s Gopeng facility is under construction. Product capacities: integrated circuit (IC) packaging products in 2022 covered DIP/SDIP, SOT, SOP, SSOP, TSSOP/ETSSOP, QFP/LQFP/TQFP, QFN/DFN, BGA/LGA, FC, MCM (MCP), SiP, WLP, TSV, bumping, MEMS, fan-out and many other lines. Both large FCBGA high-computing and high-end storage products achieved mass production. Applications: the main product markets are computers, network communications, consumer electronics and smart mobile terminals, IOT, industrial automation controls, automotive electronics and other electronic devices and other smart product markets. Customers: in 2022, Huatian added 237 customers, was certified by six Chinese and foreign automotive terminal and auto parts companies, added 42 automotive electronics customers, and participated in 202 automotive electronics projects. 技术方面：面向高端技术需求，积累国际领先技术和产品创新优势，Chiplet工艺已实现量产 公司现有封装技术水平及科技研发实力处于行业领先，逐步掌握了国际上先进的新型高密度集成电路封装核心技术。截至2022年末公司完成了多项技术的研发和产品的量产。其中，1）3D Chiplet方面：行业层面看，①Chiplet利用同构、3D异构方案等平衡芯片成本、提升良率并指数级提升算力性能。②地缘政治影响下，我们认为Chiplet或为打破国产制程瓶颈、突破算力问题的关键方案。③Chiplet中2.5D、3D Chiplet 中高速互联封装连接及TSV等提升封装价值量，我们预测有望较传统封装提升双倍以上价值量，带来较高产业弹性。公司实现了3D FO SiP 封装工艺平台的开发，现已具备由TSV、eSiFo、3D SiP构成的最新先进封装技术平台——3D Matrix。Chiplet技术已经实现量产，主要应用于5G通信、医疗、物联网等领域。2）高性能计算方面：已实现大尺寸 FCBGA 高算力系列产品的批量生产。3）存储方面：与客户合作开发 HBPOP 封装技术，实现了基于 TCB工艺的 3D Memory 封装技术的开发；已实现基于232 层 3D NAND Flash Wafer DP 工艺的存储器产品、长宽比达 7.7：1 的侧面指纹、PAMiD等产品的量产。4）第三代半导体方面：硅基GaN封装产品已量产。5）射频方面：已实现5G FCPA集成多芯片SiP等5G射频模组的量产，完成EMI工艺技术研发和产品导入；6）汽车电子方面，公司已通过ISO45001、ISO27001、ESD20.20等体系认证，进一步完善质量管理体系架构，汽车电子产品封装产量持续增长。7）其他技术：双面塑封技术、激光雷达产品完成工艺验证；单颗大尺寸HFCBGA、基于Open Molding工艺的大尺寸FCCSP产品已完成开发。现有封装技术水平及科技研发实力已处于国内同行业领先地位。 Tech capabilities: high-end tech specs; global leading technology and product innovation advantages; chiplet process mass production Huatian’s packaging technology, and scientific and technological R&D capabilities are at the forefront of the industry. It has mastered globally advanced core technologies in new high-density IC packaging. The company completed R&D and achieved mass production in a number of products as of end-2022. Here are some details: ·3D chiplets: -balancing homogeneous and heterogeneous 3D solutions chip costs, improving yield and exponentially enhancing computing performance. -with the geopolitical impact, we believe chiplets could be a key solution to relieve the bottleneck in Chinese manufacturing processes and cross the computing power hurdle. -2.5D and 3D mid-to-high-speed integrated packaging connection chiplets and TSV chiplets raise the packaging market value band. We project their value will more than double that of traditional packaging, which would increase their industrial elasticity. Huatian developed a 3D FO SiP packaging process platform and now has the most advanced packaging technology platform, a 3D matrix of TSV, eSiFo and 3D SiP. It has achieved mass production in chiplet technology, mainly in 5G communications, medical care and IOT. ·high-performance computing: Huatian has reached mass production of large-scale FCBGA high-computing power series products. ·storage: it collaborates with customers to develop HBPOP packaging technology and 3D memory packaging technology based on TCB processes; achieved mass production in memory products based on 232-layer 3D NAND flash wafer DP processes; and 7.7:1 side fingerprint and PAMiD production capacities. ·3G semiconductors: mass production of silicon-based GaN packaging products. ·radio frequency: mass production of 5G radio frequency modules, such as 5G FCPA integrated multichip SiP and EMI process technology R&D and rolled out product launches. ·automotive electronics: the company has passed ISO45001, ISO27001 ESD20.20 and other system certifications, improved its quality management system structure, and it is growing automotive electronic products’ packaging output. ·other technologies: it completed process verification in double-sided plastic packaging technology and laser radar products, and developed one-piece HFCBGA and large FCCSP products based on open molding technology. The company’s packaging technology and scientific and technological R&D are at the forefront of these market segments in China. 战略方面：两家子公司于2022年度落地，Unisem持续带来海外坚实客户基础 1）全资子公司上海华天集成电路有限公司于2022年度6月在上海自由贸易试验区临港新片区正式成立，主要从事集成电路晶圆和成品测试业务，有助于利用上海市集成电路设计及制造企业集聚优势，更好满足客户集成电路测试订单需求，进一步提升公司整体竞争能力和盈利能力。2023年度公司将启动并完成华天上海厂房建设，同时统筹做好设备安装相关生产准备工作。控股子公司天水华天芯胜科技有限公司于2022年6月在甘肃省天水市设立，旨在改善现有天水厂区发展空间不足的问题，进一步提高公司集成电路封装测试生产能力，扩大公司主营业务的规模，扩展公司生产布局，实现公司持续稳定发展。 2）公司于 2019 年 1 月完成对马来西亚主板上市公司 Unisem 的收购，打开海外广阔市场。公司收购世界知名的马来西亚半导体封测供应商UNISEM。UNISEM客户来源分布十分广泛，其主要合作企业Broadcom、Qorvo、Skyworks等公司实力强大，均为全球著名领先的射频方案提供商，市场前景较为广阔，2023年度公司将继续推进Unisem Gopeng 项目厂房建设。 Strategic buildup: 2 new subsidiaries in 2022; Unisem firms foreign customer base ·Wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Huatian Integrated Circuit Co was established in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone in June 2022. Its main business is the testing of IC wafers and finished products, benefiting from Shanghai’s locational advantage as an IC design and manufacturing hub. This allows the company to better fulfill customers’ IC testing orders, giving play to its competitive edge and enhancing profitability. The construction of the Huatian Shanghai plant will begin and be completed this year, while it simultaneously preps for production, including equipment installations. ·Tianshui Huatian Xinsheng Technology, a holding subsidiary, was established in Tianshui City, Gansu Province in June 2022, to address the shortage of development space area at its current Tianshui plant, expand its IC packaging and testing production capacity, increase the scale of the main business, broaden the production network and drive the company’s sustainable and stable development. ·Unisem, which the company completed its acquisition in January 2019, is listed on the main board of Bursa Malaysia and opens up a vast foreign market for the company. The world-renowned Malaysian semiconductor packaging and testing supplier has widely distributed customer resources. Its main partners, which include Broadcom, Qorvo and Skyworks, are global powerhouses in RF solutions. All of these imply broad market prospects and Huatian is pushing ahead with the construction of a Unisem facility in Gopeng, Perak this year. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司具有市场、技术、战略规划多层面叠加竞争优势，业务具备长期增长动能，受需求减弱和去库存等不利因素影响，公司业绩修复存在不确定性，我们下调盈利预测，预测23/24/25年归母净利润由9.72/13.09/16.43亿元下调至7.54/11.00/14.00亿元，维持公司“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Huatian Technology’s multiple competitive advantages include market positioning, technology and strategic planning, where its business is geared to the long-term horizon. However, to reflect the impact of market uncertainties such as weakening demand and destocking on its performance, we lower our net profit forecast for 2023/24/25E to RMB754m/1.10bn/1.40bn (previously RMB972m/1.31bn/1.64bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：下游产品销量不及预期、产能建设不及预期、原材料价格波动 Risks include: lower-than-expected downstream product sales volumes; lower-than-expected production capacity construction; and volatile raw material prices. 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Tianshui Huatian Technology (002185 CH) 23Q1周期下行压力尤在，看好周期复苏下业绩逐季修复 23Q1 was under cyclical pressure; from here, we anticipate a business recovery quarter by quarter BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2023年第一季度报告。23Q1公司实现营业收入22.39亿元，同比-25.56%；实现归母净利润-1.06亿元，同比-151.43%；实现扣非后归母净利润-1.82亿元，同比-222.67%。 Post Q1 weakness, we see cyclical factors bottoming out to a gradual recovery Key Q1 metrics: Huatian Technology released 23Q1 results: revenue arrived at RMB2.24bn, down 25.56% yoy; the company made a net loss of RMB106m in the quarter (down 151.43% yoy), with a net loss of RMB182m excluding nonrecurring items (down 222.67% yoy). 点评：公司汽车电子客户开拓、高算力先进封装产品量产进展顺利，为周期复苏及长期发展蓄能。23Q1利润下滑主要系终端市场产品需求下降，集成电路行业景气度下滑，订单不饱满，产能利用率不足，整体利润率下降所致。 Q1 drag factors: Huatian’s efforts to build up its automotive electronics customer pool and ramp up mass production of high-computing-power advanced packaging products are going well, revving up a cyclical recovery and long-term growth. As for the 23Q1 profit decline, we attribute a decline in the end-product market, softening IC market, less-than-full order books, inadequate capacity utilization and a total profit margin decline. 周期方面：周期底部或复苏，公司23年稼动率/业绩有望逐季度环比提升。公司截至23Q1稼动率/订单约连续下降5个季度，接近历史下行季度数（18Q1-19Q3连续7个季度下行），我们预计公司订单或将于第二季度回升，有望逐季度环比增长。 2023 growth outlook: with the cyclical weakness bottoming out, we expect the company’s utilization rates and performance will improve quarter by quarter through 2023. Utilization rates and orders have declined in five straight quarters to 23Q1 (reminiscent of the seven straight quarters of decline in 18Q1-19Q3). However, we believe orders could pick up in Q2 and grow gradually quarter by quarter. 产能产品及客户方面：协同各子公司拓展产能、优化客户结构，募投项目进展顺利 截至2022年末，公司已使用募集资金 43.28 亿元，为公司进一步扩大产业规模提供发展空间，推进战略客户开发和客户结构优化工作。在新生产基地建设方面，韶华科技已完成一期厂房及配套设施建设，并于 2022 年 8 月投产；华天江苏积极开展项目建设的各项准备工作；Unisem Gopeng 项目正在进行厂房建设。产能方面，2022年度公司集成电路封装产品已涵盖DIP/SDIP、SOT、SOP、SSOP、TSSOP/ETSSOP、QFP/LQFP/TQFP、QFN/DFN、BGA/LGA、FC、MCM（MCP）、SiP、WLP、TSV、Bumping、MEMS、Fan-Out 等多个系列。大尺寸 FCBGA 高算力系列产品和高端存储产品均实现批量生产。产品主要应用于计算机、网络通讯、消费电子及智能移动终端、物联网、工业自动化控制、汽车电子等电子整机和智能化领域。客户方面，2022年度公司导入客户 237 家，通过 6 家国内外汽车终端及汽车零部件企业审核，引入 42 家汽车电子客户，涉及 202 个汽车电子项目。 Capacity, products and customers: working with subsidiaries to expand capacity and optimize customer mix; fundraising projects progressing smoothly Of its fundraising proceeds, Huatian utilized RMB4.33bn as of end-2022 to expand future growth headroom by expanding its industrial scale, strategic customers and optimize its customer mix. Capacity ramp-up: Shaohua Technology completed the phase I construction of its plant and support facilities, and it commenced operation in August 2022; Huatian Jiangsu is prepping for project construction; while Unisem’s Gopeng facility is under construction. Product capacities: integrated circuit (IC) packaging products in 2022 covered DIP/SDIP, SOT, SOP, SSOP, TSSOP/ETSSOP, QFP/LQFP/TQFP, QFN/DFN, BGA/LGA, FC, MCM (MCP), SiP, WLP, TSV, bumping, MEMS, fan-out and many other lines. Both large FCBGA high-computing and high-end storage products achieved mass production. Applications: the main product markets are computers, network communications, consumer electronics and smart mobile terminals, IOT, industrial automation controls, automotive electronics and other electronic devices and other smart product markets. Customers: in 2022, Huatian added 237 customers, was certified by six Chinese and foreign automotive terminal and auto parts companies, added 42 automotive electronics customers, and participated in 202 automotive electronics projects. 技术方面：面向高端技术需求，积累国际领先技术和产品创新优势，Chiplet工艺已实现量产 公司现有封装技术水平及科技研发实力处于行业领先，逐步掌握了国际上先进的新型高密度集成电路封装核心技术。截至2022年末公司完成了多项技术的研发和产品的量产。其中，1）3D Chiplet方面：行业层面看，①Chiplet利用同构、3D异构方案等平衡芯片成本、提升良率并指数级提升算力性能。②地缘政治影响下，我们认为Chiplet或为打破国产制程瓶颈、突破算力问题的关键方案。③Chiplet中2.5D、3D Chiplet 中高速互联封装连接及TSV等提升封装价值量，我们预测有望较传统封装提升双倍以上价值量，带来较高产业弹性。公司实现了3D FO SiP 封装工艺平台的开发，现已具备由TSV、eSiFo、3D SiP构成的最新先进封装技术平台——3D Matrix。Chiplet技术已经实现量产，主要应用于5G通信、医疗、物联网等领域。2）高性能计算方面：已实现大尺寸 FCBGA 高算力系列产品的批量生产。3）存储方面：与客户合作开发 HBPOP 封装技术，实现了基于 TCB工艺的 3D Memory 封装技术的开发；已实现基于232 层 3D NAND Flash Wafer DP 工艺的存储器产品、长宽比达 7.7：1 的侧面指纹、PAMiD等产品的量产。4）第三代半导体方面：硅基GaN封装产品已量产。5）射频方面：已实现5G FCPA集成多芯片SiP等5G射频模组的量产，完成EMI工艺技术研发和产品导入；6）汽车电子方面，公司已通过ISO45001、ISO27001、ESD20.20等体系认证，进一步完善质量管理体系架构，汽车电子产品封装产量持续增长。7）其他技术：双面塑封技术、激光雷达产品完成工艺验证；单颗大尺寸HFCBGA、基于Open Molding工艺的大尺寸FCCSP产品已完成开发。现有封装技术水平及科技研发实力已处于国内同行业领先地位。 Tech capabilities: high-end tech specs; global leading technology and product innovation advantages; chiplet process mass production Huatian’s packaging technology, and scientific and technological R&D capabilities are at the forefront of the industry. It has mastered globally advanced core technologies in new high-density IC packaging. The company completed R&D and achieved mass production in a number of products as of end-2022. Here are some details: ·3D chiplets: -balancing homogeneous and heterogeneous 3D solutions chip costs, improving yield and exponentially enhancing computing performance. -with the geopolitical impact, we believe chiplets could be a key solution to relieve the bottleneck in Chinese manufacturing processes and cross the computing power hurdle. -2.5D and 3D mid-to-high-speed integrated packaging connection chiplets and TSV chiplets raise the packaging market value band. We project their value will more than double that of traditional packaging, which would increase their industrial elasticity. Huatian developed a 3D FO SiP packaging process platform and now has the most advanced packaging technology platform, a 3D matrix of TSV, eSiFo and 3D SiP. It has achieved mass production in chiplet technology, mainly in 5G communications, medical care and IOT. ·high-performance computing: Huatian has reached mass production of large-scale FCBGA high-computing power series products. ·storage: it collaborates with customers to develop HBPOP packaging technology and 3D memory packaging technology based on TCB processes; achieved mass production in memory products based on 232-layer 3D NAND flash wafer DP processes; and 7.7:1 side fingerprint and PAMiD production capacities. ·3G semiconductors: mass production of silicon-based GaN packaging products. ·radio frequency: mass production of 5G radio frequency modules, such as 5G FCPA integrated multichip SiP and EMI process technology R&D and rolled out product launches. ·automotive electronics: the company has passed ISO45001, ISO27001 ESD20.20 and other system certifications, improved its quality management system structure, and it is growing automotive electronic products’ packaging output. ·other technologies: it completed process verification in double-sided plastic packaging technology and laser radar products, and developed one-piece HFCBGA and large FCCSP products based on open molding technology. The company’s packaging technology and scientific and technological R&D are at the forefront of these market segments in China. 战略方面：两家子公司于2022年度落地，Unisem持续带来海外坚实客户基础 1）全资子公司上海华天集成电路有限公司于2022年度6月在上海自由贸易试验区临港新片区正式成立，主要从事集成电路晶圆和成品测试业务，有助于利用上海市集成电路设计及制造企业集聚优势，更好满足客户集成电路测试订单需求，进一步提升公司整体竞争能力和盈利能力。2023年度公司将启动并完成华天上海厂房建设，同时统筹做好设备安装相关生产准备工作。控股子公司天水华天芯胜科技有限公司于2022年6月在甘肃省天水市设立，旨在改善现有天水厂区发展空间不足的问题，进一步提高公司集成电路封装测试生产能力，扩大公司主营业务的规模，扩展公司生产布局，实现公司持续稳定发展。 2）公司于 2019 年 1 月完成对马来西亚主板上市公司 Unisem 的收购，打开海外广阔市场。公司收购世界知名的马来西亚半导体封测供应商UNISEM。UNISEM客户来源分布十分广泛，其主要合作企业Broadcom、Qorvo、Skyworks等公司实力强大，均为全球著名领先的射频方案提供商，市场前景较为广阔，2023年度公司将继续推进Unisem Gopeng 项目厂房建设。 Strategic buildup: 2 new subsidiaries in 2022; Unisem firms foreign customer base ·Wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Huatian Integrated Circuit Co was established in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone in June 2022. Its main business is the testing of IC wafers and finished products, benefiting from Shanghai’s locational advantage as an IC design and manufacturing hub. This allows the company to better fulfill customers’ IC testing orders, giving play to its competitive edge and enhancing profitability. The construction of the Huatian Shanghai plant will begin and be completed this year, while it simultaneously preps for production, including equipment installations. ·Tianshui Huatian Xinsheng Technology, a holding subsidiary, was established in Tianshui City, Gansu Province in June 2022, to address the shortage of development space area at its current Tianshui plant, expand its IC packaging and testing production capacity, increase the scale of the main business, broaden the production network and drive the company’s sustainable and stable development. ·Unisem, which the company completed its acquisition in January 2019, is listed on the main board of Bursa Malaysia and opens up a vast foreign market for the company. The world-renowned Malaysian semiconductor packaging and testing supplier has widely distributed customer resources. Its main partners, which include Broadcom, Qorvo and Skyworks, are global powerhouses in RF solutions. All of these imply broad market prospects and Huatian is pushing ahead with the construction of a Unisem facility in Gopeng, Perak this year. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司具有市场、技术、战略规划多层面叠加竞争优势，业务具备长期增长动能，受需求减弱和去库存等不利因素影响，公司业绩修复存在不确定性，我们下调盈利预测，预测23/24/25年归母净利润由9.72/13.09/16.43亿元下调至7.54/11.00/14.00亿元，维持公司“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Huatian Technology’s multiple competitive advantages include market positioning, technology and strategic planning, where its business is geared to the long-term horizon. However, to reflect the impact of market uncertainties such as weakening demand and destocking on its performance, we lower our net profit forecast for 2023/24/25E to RMB754m/1.10bn/1.40bn (previously RMB972m/1.31bn/1.64bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：下游产品销量不及预期、产能建设不及预期、原材料价格波动 Risks include: lower-than-expected downstream product sales volumes; lower-than-expected production capacity construction; and volatile raw material prices. 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