万达电影:电影全产业链持续复苏,公司市占率稳步提升

（以下内容从天风国际证券《万达电影:电影全产业链持续复苏,公司市占率稳步提升》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Wanda Film Holding (002739 CH) 电影全产业链持续复苏，公司市占率稳步提升 Wanda’s industry share edges up as recovery momentum filters through film market value chain BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 万达电影发布2022年和23年一季度业绩，2022实现营收96.95亿元，同比下降22.38%；归母净利润-19.23亿元，同比减少1908.47 %；扣非后净利润 -20.81亿元，同比减少 16391.16%。2023年一季度实现营收37.58亿元，同比增长8.57%；归母净利润3.16亿元，同比增长601.57%；扣非后净利润3.63亿元，同比增长1709.68%。 Wanda Film battered by pandemic impact in 2022, while 23Q1 ekes out a recovery ·2022 revenue came to RMB9.695bn, down 22.38%, leading to a net loss for the company at RMB1.92bn (down 1,908.47%) and ex-nonrecurring net loss at RMB2.081bn (down 16,391.16%). ·23Q1 revenue nudged up 8.57% yoy to RMB3.76bn, with net profit at RMB316m, up 601.57% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB363m, up 1,709.68% yoy. 电影市场持续回暖，高位院线市场份额进一步提升：2022年全国实现总票房300.67亿元，较21年同期下降36.4%，观影人次7.12亿，较21年同期下降39.2%；电影投资、制作和发行业务与公司现有的院线发行、电影放映、衍生品销售业务形成有效联动，放映与衍生品销售环节为电影生产决策提供数据支撑，优质电影又进一步促进终端电影放映形成良性循环，公司实现票房收入43.9亿元（不含服务费），较上年同期下降29.4%，观影人次1.1亿，较2021年同期下降33%。公司旗下影院全年累计市场占有率为16.8%，较2021年提高2.1个百分点。公司下属澳洲院线各项经营业务稳健恢复：全年实现票房约 12.4 亿元，较上年同期增长67.6%，观影人次 1,530 万人，较上年同期增长 61.9%，经营业绩实现扭亏为盈。 Premium cinemas gain market share as film industry steps up recovery ·China: box-office receipts amounted to RMB30.07bn in 2022, down 36.4% from 2021, with 712m moviegoers last year, down 39.2% from 2021. Wanda’s film investment, production and distribution business formed effective links with its existing theater distribution, film screening and derivative sales business. The screening and sales of derivative products provided data support for film production decision-making and high-quality films boosted the formation of a virtuous circle for film screening end-markets. ·Wanda rang up box-office revenue of RMB4.39bn (excluding service fees) in 2022, down 29.4% yoy, and it had 110m moviegoers, down 33% yoy. Its cinemas had a collective market share of 16.8% last year, up 2.1ppt yoy. Business at its Australian theater chain recovered steadily and it generated box-office receipts of about RMB1.24bn, up 67.6% yoy, with 15.3m moviegoers, up 61.9% yoy. The previous year’s operating loss turned around to an operating profit last year. 影视内容方面，公司IP商业变现优势明显。公司加速推进IP商业变现，2022年子公司时光网聚焦IP研发和储备，自主开发推出的吾皇万睡玩偶、如虎添翼挂件等衍生品，游戏业务方面聚焦公司体育类和经典 IP 优势领域，积极推动储备产品发行上线，预计《葫芦娃奇幻世界》《秦时明月:沧海》《虚树迷宫》等游戏将于年内发行上线。2023年全年待上映影片、待播剧集储备丰富，影视业务有望持续贡献收入。子公司万达影视主投主控的《倒数说爱你》《维和防暴队》《寻她》《三大队》等电影计划于年内上映。2023年子公司新媒诚品投资制作的《他是谁》已播出，《最灿烂的我们》《画眉》《仙剑奇侠传四》《梦外滩》《三大队》《交错的场景》等多部待播剧集或加速排播。 Competitive strengths: rich film and TV release pipeline, and IP monetization Wanda Film milked its IP rights and kicked up monetization by a few notches in 2022: ·Subsidiary Mtime developed IP content and pipeline in 2022, churning out merchandise such as Wuhuang Wanshui figures and I Am Alexander keychains. ·The gaming division promoted the company’s sports and classic IP domains with online releases of pipeline products. New game releases we are expecting this year include Calabash Babies’ Fantasy World, Legend of Qin and Labyrinthos. In view of the company’s rich pipeline of films and dramas awaiting launches throughout 2023, we expect its film and TV business will continue to contribute revenue. Film projects in this year’s release pipeline in which subsidiary Wanda Film & TV has a major or controlling share include Yesterday Once More, Formed Police Unit, Good Autumn, Mommy, and Three Teams. Projects that have been released so far this year include Who Is He, of which subsidiary New Media Eslite is an investor and producer. Meanwhile, the release schedule for many upcoming dramas could be brought forward, including The Most Brilliant Us, Hwamei, Chinese Paladin 4, Dream on the Bund, Three Teams and Interlaced Scenes. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：23年以来疫情已进入常态化防控阶段，电影行业持续稳健复苏，在此背景下优质电影龙头的竞争优势和市场份额有望持续提升，我们预计公司院线市占率和放映业务有望加速恢复；根据公司2022年财报和新增信息，我们略微调整2023-2024年公司盈利预测并新增2025年盈利预测: 我们预计公司2023-2025年收入分别为130.74/167.94/203.81亿元（23/24年前值163.51/189.48亿元），同比增速分别为35%/28%/21%，归母净利润分别为12.29/14.73/15.87亿元 （23/24年前值11.9/16.27亿元），维持“买入”评级。对应2023年5月5日收盘价，23-25年PE分别为26/22/20倍。 Valuation and risks With the Chinese market normalizing post-pandemic in terms of prevention and controls, its film industry is recovering steadily. We thus expect leading quality films will continue to increase their competitive advantages and market shares. Likewise, we expect Wanda’s theater market share and screening business to hasten their recovery. To reflect the company’s 2022 results and new data, we tweak our 2023/24E profit forecasts and introduce 2025E numbers in the list. We project revenue of RMB13.07bn/16.79bn/ 20.38bn for 2023/24/25E (2023/24E previously at RMB16.35bn/18.95bn), up 35/28/21%. Our net profit stands at RMB1.23bn/1.47bn/1.59bn (previously RMB1.19bn/1.63bn for 2023/24E). Based on its current trading price as of 5 May 2023 market close, our PEs are 26/22/20x for 2023/24/25E. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：电影市场恢复进度不达预期，电影项目票房不达预期，影视项目推进延期，经营业绩波动下现金流风险 Risks include: the film market recovering more slowly than expected; film projects’ box-office receipts coming in below expectations; postponement of film and TV projects’ promotions; and operating performance volatility affecting cash flow. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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